Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

The Floater has been up for a while in that area.here's an IR image on our first invest of the 2006 season.

Actually, the center of the invest is off that image to the south at 17.3N. Right on the coast of Belize.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, the center of the invest is off that image to the south at 17.3N. Right on the coast of Belize.

That confirms my thoughts based on viewing one of the visible loops. Be aware that in a system and synoptics like this, the center may reform and can also be tricky to track.

[AnnularCane]

Is this expected to develop further? Could it makes its way into the Gulf and cause any problems for southeast Louisiana?

[gatorcane]

the West coast of FL is a prime target in my opinion, it's very typical for a June storm to hit there. We these strong late season troughs moving through it wouldn't surprise me if one comes down a week from and shunts in NE.

[CHRISTY]

the West coast of FL is a prime target in my opinion, it's very typical for a June storm to hit there. We these strong late season troughs moving through it wouldn't surprise me if one comes down a week from and shunts in NE.

yea i agree boca.

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB 48 hr. forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

the West coast of FL is a prime target in my opinion, it's very typical for a June storm to hit there. We these strong late season troughs moving through it wouldn't surprise me if one comes down a week from and shunts in NE.

currently, however, this is forecast to cross the Yucatan into the BOC. Once there, it actually becomes rare for a storm to strike west FL in June.

[boca]

Good point but the bermuda high is building towards Florida and the bermuda high doesn't know its June. I still think Texas.

[gatorcane]

NHC it will move North or NW in the short-term....not West folks.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR BELIZE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA... BELIZE... WESTERN CUBA... AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER... AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE... GUATEMALA... AND WESTERN
CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[Extremeweatherguy]

NHC it will move North or NW in the short-term....not West folks.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR BELIZE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA... BELIZE... WESTERN CUBA... AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER... AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE... GUATEMALA... AND WESTERN
CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

Yes, it should move NNW today, then more westward by tomorrow or Saturday...cross the Yucatan and end up in the BOC.

[CHRISTY]

the CMC has it becomeing a tropical/hurricane moving north then makeing a bend to the NE towards the panhandle.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the CMC has it becomeing a tropical/hurricane moving north then makeing a bend to the NE towards the panhandle.

do you have a link?

[skysummit]

the CMC has it becomeing a tropical/hurricane moving north then makeing a bend to the NE towards the panhandle.

I thought you didn't listen to the CMC. Just joking Christy.

[ericinmia]

Take into account...

A weak storm with little in the way of CDO, or organized anything is hard to pinpoint down. And the center will reform, relocate, or be misplaced multiple places many times.

Don't hedge all bets on just the cords. until something more substantial forms.

[BreinLa]

awww chit already!!!!!!!!!

[skysummit]

awww chit already!!!!!!!!!

LOL Bre...ready for another hurricane?

[drezee]

Light West winds on N Honduras Coast!

http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/p ... mex-1.html

[BreinLa]

Took the morning off and went to get my hair done (Kathy I look as cute as you do now lol) and I come back to this NO not ready yet sky!!!!!!!!!!

[wxman57]

Here's a high-res visible image with the area of concern indicted by the "L". Note that the thunderstorms near the NE Yucatan are not what we're really worried about. It's the energy that will track across the Yucatan and move into the BoC early next week that's more of a concern. The storms near the NE Yucatan will probably track to the north and move off to the NE into a region of higher shear where development would be unlikely.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi also thinks the area will move NW (according to his latest post).