Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Opal storm]

Yep there is the NE turn based on the model run.

WATCH OUT FLORIDA. Climatologically speaking the Eastern GOM is the most likely area for it to end up in.

Have you not read what wxman57 has been posting? He has said many times that this will end up in the BOC..not Florida. Joe Bastardi is also calling for a NW movement. I know you may want this to hit FL, but right now chances are pretty slim. Things may change in the future though.

LOL it's pretty obvious you're wishing this to hit you Extreme.Nobody wants this to hit FL,stop this -removed- stuff it's very annoying.

[MiamiensisWx]

This is where I think the current MLC/LLC developing low center is and where a new center might reform. Does anyone agree with this?

[wzrgirl1]

thanks wzrgirl1

you're welcome.........from one fellow south floridian to another

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm thinking the Florida Panhandle because:
1. It is very common for a Florida Cane at this time of year.
2. Most of the models agree that this might be a Florida hit.

[caneman]

DeltaDog,

check NHC site. West Florida is the more likely area in June. Doesn't mean Texas won't get hit just higher probability of West Florida

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Hey could Invest 91L form in the bahamas?

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Hey could Invest 91L form in the bahamas?

looks possible if a low can form under low shear.

[Stratusxpeye]

Whoa it is way too early to say at all where it will hit. Jeesh. The center will reform at least once or possibly more than once and the system is not even fully formed or developed yet. Plus the models we usually use the most aren't out on the system yet (GFDL NOGAPS + OTHERS)

I would have to agree with the Texas/Mexico at this point but again not really a great time to be discussing landfall. lets discuss possible development first.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm thinking the Florida Panhandle because:
1. It is very common for a Florida Cane at this time of year.
2. Most of the models agree that this might be a Florida hit.

But most of the mets are saying that this will not be a FL hit. Also, "most" of the models is not taking into account the NAM, NAM/WRF, EURO, GFS, etc.

[gatorcane]

But most of the mets are saying that this will not be a FL hit. Also, "most" of the models is not taking into account the NAM, NAM/WRF, EURO, GFS, etc.

Throw them out until an actual center can be positioned. The flow in that region as been SW to NE for a while now. To see it just stop is not likely in my opinion - i say it will edge northward into the Southern GOM and hitch a ridge on a trough that will dive down into the Southern US next week.

[wxman57]

Whoa it is way too early to say at all where it will hit. Jeesh. The center will reform at least once or possibly more than once and the system is not even fully formed or developed yet. Plus the models we usually use the most aren't out on the system yet (GFDL NOGAPS + OTHERS)

I would have to agree with the Texas/Mexico at this point but again not really a great time to be discussing landfall. lets discuss possible development first.

It's never too early to predict where landfall might occur. It is too early to be highly confident in such a forecst. I'll be a lot more sure by about next Thursday.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well since we no longer have to discredit the CMC model let me add it to the possible track list. Please notice I say track and not intensity.

[Extremeweatherguy]

But most of the mets are saying that this will not be a FL hit. Also, "most" of the models is not taking into account the NAM, NAM/WRF, EURO, GFS, etc.

Throw them out until an actual center can be positioned.

good point. Either way, here is a look at what a few of the latest model runs are saying (they will likely change their tune many times in the future though):

NAM-WRF at 84 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif

12Z GFS at 96hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_096l.gif

[gatorcane]

that CMC track is more likely

[MiamiensisWx]

It will all depend a lot on how the Texas ridge builds in from the northwest and merges a bit with the western extent of the Bermuda-Azores High in the west-central Gulf. This will make a big difference in steering and potential track and needs to be monitored.

[tailgater]

Whoa it is way too early to say at all where it will hit. Jeesh. The center will reform at least once or possibly more than once and the system is not even fully formed or developed yet. Plus the models we usually use the most aren't out on the system yet (GFDL NOGAPS + OTHERS)

I would have to agree with the Texas/Mexico at this point but again not really a great time to be discussing landfall. lets discuss possible development first.

I've been studying the Vis. Sat. loop for this area and can't close a LLC anywhere near there. Still looks like a trough to me.

[jasons2k]

It will all depend a lot on how the Texas ridge builds in from the northwest and merges a bit with the western extent of the Bermuda-Azores High in the west-central Gulf. This will make a big difference in steering and potential track and needs to be monitored.

I agree with that. Also, that experimental NAM-WRF model just might become decent model. Just an opinion though.

[Stratusxpeye]

Whoa it is way too early to say at all where it will hit. Jeesh. The center will reform at least once or possibly more than once and the system is not even fully formed or developed yet. Plus the models we usually use the most aren't out on the system yet (GFDL NOGAPS + OTHERS)

I would have to agree with the Texas/Mexico at this point but again not really a great time to be discussing landfall. lets discuss possible development first.

It's never too early to predict where landfall might occur. It is too early to be highly confident in such a forecst. I'll be a lot more sure by about next Thursday.

Correct but my main point is we should discuss development first. We don't have a diffinitive center yet. I agree it's never to early to Predict a landfall of a storm but in this case I think it's too early too disscuss as The models and tracks will change a wholel ot of times in the coming days.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree with that. Also, that experimental NAM-WRF model just might become decent model. Just an opinion though.

I think you may be right as well.

[jasons2k]

Stratus - yes, very true, a lot will change. I don't think we'll have a good idea on what will happen until it emerges into the GOM.

This reminds me a lot of Cindy last year. I just think the outcome will be different.