Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[MiamiensisWx]

Stratus - yes, very true, a lot will change. I don't think we'll have a good idea on what will happen until it emerges into the GOM.

This reminds me a lot of Cindy last year. I just think the outcome will be different.

I agree that it will be critical on what setup and synoptics will be taking place as it slowly moves into the BOC/Gulf area off the Yucatan. I also think it resembles Cindy in some ways, and there is potential the track may be somewhat similar, though different in terms of landfall area.

[lester]

Time to lock the model discussion.

lol
CAT 5 IN MIAMI!! RUN!!

[coriolis]

That was obviously a joke. However we try to avoid yelling FIRE in a crowed theater, if you know what I mean.

[isobar0512]

What track did Cindy take?

[MiamiensisWx]

What track did Cindy take?

Hey, welcome to the boards!



Here is Cindy's track...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/CINDY/track.gif

[AnnularCane]

Cindy came to Southeast La. It seems to me that wherever the first storm of the season goes, the others tend to follow somewhat.

[Scott_inVA]

Throw them out until an actual center can be positioned. The flow in that region as been SW to NE for a while now. To see it just stop is not likely in my opinion - i say it will edge northward into the Southern GOM and hitch a ridge on a trough that will dive down into the Southern US next week.

Overall, correct. Trof progged to dig down will enhance shear SW of FL. No surprise that's right where the tropicals end the "storm" in 120 hours.

Scott

[isobar0512]

Thanks for the info. Hope that doesn't repeat itself. Mississippi coastal residents don't even need TS winds.

[jasons2k]

What track did Cindy take?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I wasn't referring to the final track though. It was more about the current position, and how it slowly tracked across the Yucatan before getting going. Also, the forecasts jumped a LOT, initally - from Mexico, then Texas (for awhile it really looked like Galveston was going to get it), but then she curved NE towards NOLA. There wasn't a good handle on its forecasted path until after she was out in the GOM with an organized center. I expect that to be the case with this system, if it even forms.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think here will be the two most likely synoptics and outcomes...

1. The storm slowly develops as the trough pulls away and the system edges into the BOC/southwestern to central Gulf off the Yucatan and begins to slowly move westward to northwestward as the second trough from the Texas area and Great Plains moves over the top of the system and developing ridge

2. The scenario boca_chris and Scott_inVa agrees on

The synoptics and how they play out will be critical over the next 24 hours and beyond. Just my two cents and analysis.

[rockyman]

As usual, the crucial question right now is where does the low level center eventual coalesce....Right now, there's lots of vorticity and a couple of centers seem to be competing along a surface trough...if the southern one wins out, the system could die over Central America or even move into the E Pac...if the northern one wins out, we could have another Cindy-type scenario....or they could "meet in the middle", which would be a toss-up.

Right now, the southern end of the system has the best synoptics...low shear

My thoughts:

[tailgater]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 081658
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2006


.

...DISCUSSION...
.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THIS REGION. THE DEEP
TROUGH AXIS RUNS FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE SE GULF. THE
MID-UPPER RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
23N66W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING SWWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND NEWARD TO 32N54W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS THE STRONGEST. AS
OF 1500 UTC...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N66W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND W CUBA TO OVER GUATEMALA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN IN
THIS VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT TODAY CONVECTION HAS
BLOSSOMED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS WITHIN 280 NM E OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. A
BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRES APPEARS TO BE FORMING AT THE
BASE OF THE SFC TROUGH NEAR BELIZE. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TC FORMATION MAY OCCUR FROM THIS ENERGY SOURCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME A BIT LESS
HOSTILE. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL DRIFT WWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND. IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER
PLENTY OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE GENERATING BY THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER...BESIDES FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN THE ATLC BEYOND 360 NM OF THE SFC BOUNDARY DUE TO
HIGH PRES RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.

[terstorm1012]

*deleted*

it was the TWD, already posted above.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 081658
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2006


.

...DISCUSSION...
.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THIS REGION. THE DEEP
TROUGH AXIS RUNS FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE SE GULF. THE
MID-UPPER RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
23N66W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING SWWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND NEWARD TO 32N54W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS THE STRONGEST. AS
OF 1500 UTC...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N66W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND W CUBA TO OVER GUATEMALA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN IN
THIS VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT TODAY CONVECTION HAS
BLOSSOMED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS WITHIN 280 NM E OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. A
BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRES APPEARS TO BE FORMING AT THE
BASE OF THE SFC TROUGH NEAR BELIZE. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TC FORMATION MAY OCCUR FROM THIS ENERGY SOURCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME A BIT LESS
HOSTILE. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL DRIFT WWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND. IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER
PLENTY OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE GENERATING BY THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER...BESIDES FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN THE ATLC BEYOND 360 NM OF THE SFC BOUNDARY DUE TO
HIGH PRES RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.

Just wanted that sentence to be highlighted.

[AnnularCane]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 081658
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2006


.

...DISCUSSION...
.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THIS REGION. THE DEEP
TROUGH AXIS RUNS FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE SE GULF. THE
MID-UPPER RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
23N66W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING SWWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND NEWARD TO 32N54W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS THE STRONGEST. AS
OF 1500 UTC...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N66W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND W CUBA TO OVER GUATEMALA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN IN
THIS VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT TODAY CONVECTION HAS
BLOSSOMED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS WITHIN 280 NM E OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. A
BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRES APPEARS TO BE FORMING AT THE
BASE OF THE SFC TROUGH NEAR BELIZE. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TC FORMATION MAY OCCUR FROM THIS ENERGY SOURCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME A BIT LESS
HOSTILE. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL DRIFT WWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND. IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER
PLENTY OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE GENERATING BY THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER...BESIDES FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN THE ATLC BEYOND 360 NM OF THE SFC BOUNDARY DUE TO
HIGH PRES RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.

Just wanted that sentence to be highlighted.

What does that highlighted sentence mean?

[drezee]

JB's video's are late today

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well who would want to see JB's videos.

[drezee]

515
WHXX04 KWBC 081732
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 87.9 355./ 7.0
6 17.2 88.2 243./ 3.0
12 17.0 88.1 167./ 2.6
18 16.8 88.3 231./ 2.1
24 16.7 88.0 123./ 2.7
30 16.6 88.1 186./ 1.0
36 16.2 88.3 214./ 4.2
42 16.4 88.2 41./ 1.9
48 16.5 88.3 324./ 1.8
54 16.7 88.3 347./ 1.3
60 16.2 88.7 222./ 5.8
66 16.5 88.5 31./ 3.1
72 16.5 88.9 272./ 3.6
78 16.8 88.9 9./ 2.4
84 17.5 90.2 298./14.6
90 18.1 90.6 329./ 7.9
96 18.8 91.6 303./11.3
102 19.4 92.4 307./ 9.3
108 19.7 93.2 290./ 8.2
114 20.1 94.1 293./ 9.5
120 20.5 95.1 296./10.5
126 20.9 95.7 301./ 7.1

[HurricaneHunter914]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

TROPICAL DEPRESSION?!

[Regit]

Well who would want to see JB's videos.

Plenty of people, obviously