Most Models Latching On

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Most models are now latching on to the system in the Caribbean. The new GFS also has it, although weak more of an inverted trof. At the 300 level shear in indicated in the northern Gulf next week. Also the GFS builds 500 High back east again by Wednesday of next week. The high will be the key on where the system goes.

[NONAME]

So do you think it will devlop just want a mets ideal on the system.

[Roxy]

Thanks, I wondered how the retreating high would steer a potential storm....so are you saying if it does edge back east the storm could take a more westerly track than the models indicate?

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks, I wondered how the retreating high would steer a potential storm....so are you saying if it does edge back east the storm could take a more westerly track than the models indicate?

Yes, and that is what is being discussed.

[Roxy]

Thanks CVW, this metoerology stuff is foreign to me. Appreciate the confirmation...

(Did I even spell meterology right?)

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks, Roxy.

By the way, it's spelled like this...

M-E-T-E-O-R-O-L-O-G-Y

You were close.

[Roxy]

Hehe, thanks. Won't screw that one up again.

[x-y-no]

Also the GFS builds 500 High back east again by Wednesday of next week. The high will be the key on where the system goes.

Was just looking at the 12z run ... it sure does.

Interesting, because in past seasons the GFS has, if anything, been too weak with the 500mb ridging.

[AnnularCane]

Any threads yet of the latest model runs?

[jasons2k]

Also the GFS builds 500 High back east again by Wednesday of next week. The high will be the key on where the system goes.

Was just looking at the 12z run ... it sure does.

Interesting, because in past seasons the GFS has, if anything, been too weak with the 500mb ridging.

That is correct. My fear with this scenario is that the models (starting with the GFS) will push the system into Mexico but any weakness will allow the system to track north.

[drezee]

I am not sure whay you needed to create a new thread on the same topic?

[southerngale]

I am not sure whay you needed to create a new thread on the same topic?

I'm not sure why it bothers you. You're free to pass this one up if you want.

[cycloneye]

I am not sure whay you needed to create a new thread on the same topic?

Also we decided to be very liberal in terms of members making new threads.

[drezee]

Oh ok, the rules have changed. Didn't know. Last year was the year of the "One" Thread"

[southerngale]

Oh ok, the rules have changed. Didn't know. Last year was the year of the "One" Thread"

Yeah, and while we'll still lock exact duplicates, we want the members to be free to post their thoughts and if they believe it warrants a new thread, so be it. If it didn't, it will probably just fall to the bottom anyway. We just hope that people won't start new threads just to see their name as the thread starter. lol...never understood that one.

[CajunMama]

I am not sure whay you needed to create a new thread on the same topic?

Oh ok, the rules have changed. Didn't know. Last year was the year of the "One" Thread"

But this by no means means you should start a new thread when you know there are others started. I found this thread to have different substance than the others.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thanks.

[fci]

As far as this amateur is concerned ANYTIME a Pro Met wants to start a thread, I will ALWAYS read it.
I'm graeteful to the Pro Mets for participating on S2K.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Looks like the 500 High stays to strong over Texas to get this first System of the season. Models are showing it over the Eastern Gulf.

[deltadog03]

well, im not so sure KFDM.....I think the models are pushing this bad boy up into the gom to quickly......IMO there are still waaaaaay too many variables.