Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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cycloneye
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#121 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:39 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Just to make a comment, out of the 4 times Alberto has been used, half of the time it has formed in this area. Not a surprise since it's the first letter and this is the area that is usually the most favorable for development.


Sandy,that is a very interesting stat about the name Alberto.
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#122 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:40 pm



It clearly shows how the convection has erupted over time in this area.
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max

#123 Postby max » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:41 pm

HURAKAN wrote:


It clearly shows how the convection has erupted over time in this area.


Yep!

Wow you all go from page to page like its out of style lol! Not a bad thing though! I like it! I like it a lot!
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Scorpion

#124 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:41 pm

The WRF forms what looks to be a hurricane.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_12z/wrf84.html
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#125 Postby hicksta » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:42 pm

WRF is a expermental model if im correct.
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CHRISTY

#126 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:44 pm

hicksta wrote:WRF is a expermental model if im correct.


yep.
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#127 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:44 pm

I had noticed that 1005 mb ob that the AccuWx discussion mentions and disregarded it, because after looking at the previous obs, that ship seems to be terminally low in the pressures it reports by four millibars or so.
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max

#128 Postby max » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:48 pm

skysummit wrote:
Opal storm wrote:Wow TWC didn't even mention this,though im not really surprised. :roll:


They probably didn't log onto S2K today. They'll catch up.... :roll:
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#129 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:49 pm

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max

#130 Postby max » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:50 pm

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#131 Postby CajunMama » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:52 pm

hicksta wrote:Seems accuweather is going along with the gfs. If this storm can remain intact of the yuc then i belive we may be looking at a weak cat 2 or cat 1 hurricane once it makes landfall somewhere along the gulf


hicksta wrote:The forcast for shear in the gulf is favorable for devolpment along with the sst's. As long as the center stays intact i belive it may devolp to be atleast a TS.


So which is it?
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#132 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:53 pm

This Alberto might be the first one to hit Mexico.
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#133 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:53 pm

The genesis map agrees with this thing organizing..

Image

There's our first light blue shading of the season, also note the increasing probs in the EPAC.
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#134 Postby whereverwx » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:53 pm

It's a very large area of convection. I wonder what the rainfall totals are for Cuba.

Image
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#135 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:54 pm

I have an eerie hunch we'll see it (if it develops) in mid-gulf -- going to be pretty dry to the west and the N. gulf ridge is movin' on out:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg
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#136 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:55 pm

Hey now ... starting to get something besides purple rectangles in that map ...
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#137 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:55 pm

It's a very large area of convection. I wonder what the rainfall totals are for Cuba.


I think South Florida could get some rainfall also....if it inches Northward.
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max

#138 Postby max » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:55 pm

Calamity wrote:It's a very large area of convection. I wonder what the rainfall totals are for Cuba.

Image


Imagine if it stays the big in the Gulf of Mexico and if it develops :eek:
Last edited by max on Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#139 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:55 pm

Appears to be moving east. Probably a wobble.
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#140 Postby CajunMama » Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:57 pm

Not the "wobbles" already! :eek: :wink:
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