Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS at 54 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

it is funny how everyone in Fl is saying that this will eventually head NE. It is odd how Florida just happens to be in that same area.

[Dean4Storms]

Keep an eye on these buoys around the Yucatan......


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/West_Caribbean.shtml

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 13#1320713

Benny,above is a thread that Mike Watkins made at Tropical Analyisis forum about the theme of models and timing.

[southerngale]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

Believe me, if this thing develops it is not going to go ENE and south of Fl. Dennis Phillips obviously disagrees with every computer model, the NHC/TPC, and probably 90% of the pro mets out there if he is making that kind of claim. The good news, however, is that moisture will likely be increased over Fl as this system moves off to the NW.

First of all Calm down Breath. The models don't have a LLC to initalize, until that happens..anything could happen. I thought the last thing TX or LA needed was another system. Seems like this would have been good news to most.

I don't think he was implying that Texas or Louisiana needed another system, although I think parts of Louisiana really need rain. It's just that most of us haven't heard any mets mention that direction at all. I think that's why we seem surprised by what your met said. That's all.

[Dean4Storms]

Does appear to be more of a concentrated LL spin albeit rather broad near or centered just north of Cozumel

[CHRISTY]

it is funny how everyone in Fl is saying that this will eventually head NE. It is odd how Florida just happens to be in that same area.

because storms in this location in june tend to move NE into florida.

[whereverwx]

I think the center is around this area.

Hey,Calamity,that circle is big as it covers a big area.If you can do it a smaller one could be better to the members to pinpoint what you are circuling.

Sarcasm guys! IMO This is what he meant. In another words it could be anywhere I'm pretty sure on this anyway. He can correct me if I'm wrong please.

lol, well it's not sarcasm, and maybe the circle was a little big . This should be better; right along the coast, and it's a square.

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS in 66 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif
^^weak TS in central Gulf^^

[ronjon]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

Believe me, if this thing develops it is not going to go ENE and south of Fl. Dennis Phillips obviously disagrees with every computer model, the NHC/TPC, and probably 90% of the pro mets out there if he is making that kind of claim. The good news, however, is that moisture will likely be increased over Fl as this system moves off to the NW.

First of all Calm down Breath. The models don't have a LLC to initalize, until that happens..anything could happen. I thought the last thing TX or LA needed was another system. Seems like this would have been good news to most.

Rainband, you sure DP said E-NE? Did you mean to say W-NW? Because if the system did move E-NE south of Florida then that would keep us very dry here on the peninsula.

[Aquawind]

The models don't have a LLC to initalize, until that happens..anything could happen.

Badda Bing!

[Rainband]

it is funny how everyone in Fl is saying that this will eventually head NE. It is odd how Florida just happens to be in that same area.

Thats the pot calling the kettle black I am in west central florida. It would have to go due north to come near me. All I did was post what I heard from my local met, which by the way covered Rita in TEXAS when she made landfall. He is very good. That was my point. Seems to me like you don't want to hear any other view but the ones that have this hitting texas

[CHRISTY]

The models don't have a LLC to initalize, until that happens..anything could happen.

Badda Bing!

YES......

[Wnghs2007]

Now the GFS has this heading towards mobile (or somewhere in the Eastern Gulf)!!!! @ 72 hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[Rainband]

The models don't have a LLC to initalize, until that happens..anything could happen.

Badda Bing!

Finally a voice or text of reasoning

[Aquawind]

GFS in 66 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif
^^weak TS in central Gulf^^

Sweet delicious rain for me..

[Rainband]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

Believe me, if this thing develops it is not going to go ENE and south of Fl. Dennis Phillips obviously disagrees with every computer model, the NHC/TPC, and probably 90% of the pro mets out there if he is making that kind of claim. The good news, however, is that moisture will likely be increased over Fl as this system moves off to the NW.

First of all Calm down Breath. The models don't have a LLC to initalize, until that happens..anything could happen. I thought the last thing TX or LA needed was another system. Seems like this would have been good news to most.

Rainband, you sure DP said E-NE? Did you mean to say W-NW? Because if the system did move E-NE south of Florida then that would keep us very dry here on the peninsula.

watch him in 15 minutes

[benny]

hmmmm....wonder what the GFS is trying to do....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

still looks like a broad low in 30 hrs. Remember, however, that the 18Z GFS is usually one of the most unreliable runs.

unreliable? you have any documentation of this claim? there is no major difference in skill by any of the model runs of the GFS according to EMC

No, I do not have documentation. This is just something I have heard many, many times on storm2k. I supposedly uses old information instead of using fresh information (or something like that). Can somebody else help me on this?

I think it is just a myth. Here is a verification of tropical correlation scores for 3 days using the 00,06,12,18z models. They are virtually identical. Averaging the correlation coefficent for both 200 mb and 850 mb gives no big changes between the models. I will say that the 00/12z models are a hair better in this diagram.. but it is virtually insignificant change.... .005-.01 correlation score... that undetectable by human eyes.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS ... acu82.html

[CHRISTY]

Now the GFS has this heading towards mobile (or somewhere in the Eastern Gulf)!!!! @ 72 hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

i say this might continue to shift more eastward.

[benny]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1320713#1320713

Benny,above is a thread that Mike Watkins made at Tropical Analyisis forum about the theme of models and timing.

I made my comments there. He has a few things wrong and I made some corrections.

Big changes in this GFS run.. heading in the general direction of the FL panhandle in about 4 days...