Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[skysummit]

jdray....I don't know if everyone in Florida would love that path. If the GFS is correct on location and timing, and the shear forecasts are correct for that same time, this system could actually get going a little.

[jdray]

Stratus, that path would be perfect for the parts of Florida still needing the rain badly.

SE Florida is doing much better now than the rest of the state.

http://flame.fl-dof.com/nws/kbdi/archiv ... 060607.gif

A nice panhandle landfall would give Tampa northeast to Jax plenty of rain and we need it.


Skysummit, a big storm would be bad, a 50mph TS with soaking rains would not be so bad.

[Stratusxpeye]

Stratus, that path would be perfect for the parts of Florida still needing the rain badly.

SE Florida is doing much better now than the rest of the state.

http://flame.fl-dof.com/nws/kbdi/archiv ... 060607.gif

A nice panhandle landfall would give Tampa northeast to Jax plenty of rain and we need it.

Im in one of those four red counties. We are exremely dry.

[max]

jdray....I don't know if everyone in Florida would love that path. If the GFS is correct on location and timing, and the shear forecasts are correct for that same time, this system could actually get going a little.

You can't say where its going when it hasn't even formed yet.

[JPmia]

Hmm...still think it is up in the air (no pun intended) until we know what will occur...no LLC.....and no major model agreement....GFS run though is interesting....I think some here are right..Sat/Sun we'll know much more. Then, insted of the"W" word we can start using the other "W" word or Wobble.

[vaffie]

Here's the 18Z GFS.
18Z GFS

If you look at it, it seems quite different from the other models, so I'm not surprised that it ends up taking it up to Florida. For instance, it doesn't close off a low until Sunday night and it does that just north of the Yucatan at about 88 W. It then drifts north towards the panhandle, being pulled supposedly by a weakness caused by a fairly north cold front. It also never strengthens substantially, staying around 1000 mb--perhaps a tropical storm at best. In other words, I don't really think the GFS has initialized correctly. I would rely more on the NOGAPS, which uses all of the navy data out there in the area, and has initialized the storm well. I think that is why the NHC is leaning more towards a NW movement of a strengthening low vs the northerly drift of a weak low that the GFS is now showing. Once we get some data from the storm, the GFS will become much more useful, and most of the other models will start to line up because they rely on the GFS data.

[skysummit]

jdray....I don't know if everyone in Florida would love that path. If the GFS is correct on location and timing, and the shear forecasts are correct for that same time, this system could actually get going a little.

You can't say where its going when it hasn't even formed yet.

Did I say where it's going??? NO. No one is saying where it's going or even if it will ever get anywhere. By the way....it's not even an "it" yet. I said if the GFS was correct, that's all.

[jasons2k]

jdray....I don't know if everyone in Florida would love that path. If the GFS is correct on location and timing, and the shear forecasts are correct for that same time, this system could actually get going a little.

You can't say where its going when it hasn't even formed yet.

Max, you are exactly correct.

Remember Cindy last year? The models can and will change significantly until the center reforms (if it does) once it's back over the Gulf.

[JPmia]

I have a question to all of the archivists on the board....what is the track record for June storms that come out of the Carib. and move toward FL? I mostly think of Texas/Mexico/LA landfalls at this time of year for storms in this area.

[skysummit]

jdray....I don't know if everyone in Florida would love that path. If the GFS is correct on location and timing, and the shear forecasts are correct for that same time, this system could actually get going a little.

You can't say where its going when it hasn't even formed yet.

Max, you are exactly correct.

Remember Cindy last year? The models can and will change significantly until the center reforms (if it does) once it's back over the Gulf.

Geez...I guess I learned a lesson about not Quoting another poster. My post was in response to another member. I was NOT saying where it was going.

...and yes js, the models will change signifigantly since there is absolutely nothing to originate on right now.

[Aquawind]

It's OK skysummit.. You said nothing wrong at all..

[CajunMama]

jdray....I don't know if everyone in Florida would love that path. If the GFS is correct on location and timing, and the shear forecasts are correct for that same time, this system could actually get going a little.

You can't say where its going when it hasn't even formed yet.

Max, you are exactly correct.

Remember Cindy last year? The models can and will change significantly until the center reforms (if it does) once it's back over the Gulf.

Geez...I guess I learned a lesson about not Quoting another poster. My post was in response to another member. I was NOT saying where it was going.

...and yes js, the models will change signifigantly since there is absolutely nothing to originate on right now.

Sky...it's the others that aren't reading what others are saying. I know you were replying to jdray. You said his name in your reply.

[tailgater]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MGPB.html
This is the lowest pressure reported by any of the stations @ this invest for 6pm. This station is just s of Belize

[johngaltfla]

can someone send the new model runs that you are talking about.....thanks

Here's the 18Z GFS.
18Z GFS

I can't stand that solution. I request a do-over.

Man, keep in mind if this thing stays stationary for 2 or 3 days, it's all over. We'll see 20 threads, mass hysteria here, and dogs and cats sleeping together.

[JamesFromMaine2]

so pressure down 2mb?

[Weatherfreak14]

WOW. Could this thing really have the chance to devolop and move toward flordia.

[HURAKAN]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html

Belize City indicates the same.

[clfenwi]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MGPB.html
This is the lowest pressure reported by any of the stations @ this invest for 6pm.

This page gives a map of the stations in the region (for anyone who didn't automatically associate Puerto Barrios with eastern coastal Guatamala)

[jasons2k]

I have a question to all of the archivists on the board....what is the track record for June storms that come out of the Carib. and move toward FL? I mostly think of Texas/Mexico/LA landfalls at this time of year for storms in this area.

35 named storms have formed in the month of June since 1950.

25 (71%) made a U.S. landfall.

22 (62%) made landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

That's for the whole basin, the numbers are higher when they form in the NW Carib or the GOM.

[Stratosphere747]

I have a question to all of the archivists on the board....what is the track record for June storms that come out of the Carib. and move toward FL? I mostly think of Texas/Mexico/LA landfalls at this time of year for storms in this area.

Historically and climatologically, systems would tend to move towards Tex/La or Mexico.

First we need a system...

Only then would the specific steering currents dictate where that system would go.