Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[ronjon]

East coast trough axis now approaching FL. This major trough (for this time of the year) is starting to swing east and will eventually lift up to the NE to be replaced by that large Upper High now over NE TX. This should make conditions slowly more favorable in the GOM for development. The dry air will hinder it somewhat but that will begin to modify this weekend.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

[Opal storm]

I think it comes to show that now most of the models are starting to agree on a Panhandle hit.

There's still a bunch of time for things to change,still too early to be saying exactly where this will hit.

[canegrl04]

but still,many more are predicting a western path



Oh joy.Into the GOM.That should make NOLA residents feel good should it become a TS

[Dean4Storms]

(image snipped)

Holy! If this is right then the TX/LA border may be the target! The good news,however, is that this also shows a very weak system (though I doubt that would be the case on this track).

No, see the word trough up over LA? That would pick the storm up and turn it NE around the back of that Atlantic Ridge.

But according to this graphic, it would still be moving NW. Also, that trof looks to be a bit inland...it probably wouldn't have an affect until after landfall.

Another much stronger trough is expected to drop down into the northern GOM by Thur., this trough will begin to turn that NNW movement around to the east, the GFS, GFDL, CMC all reflect it.

This graphic is for Monday though. I think this will have reached land (at the speed the graphic shows) well before Thursday. This is assuming their graphic even becomes correct. For all we know, this may end up being wrong.

No, where they have the L is where they expect it using a model consensus come Monday (72hr.) and then they split the hairs moreso with the X for Tues. But I expect that X to move a little more eastward come tomorrow.

yeah, but you are saying the trof is not due until Thursday. Wouldn't Monday and Tuesday still be way to early?

No, the trough coming into the north Gulf come Thurs would start to break down the ridge much earlier, Tues at least.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Luckily most of the city is still deserted after Katrina hit.

[rockyman]

Right now, we can only say that a potential tropical cyclone might form and move into the Gulf or Bay of Campeche...anything beyond that is utter speculation. Maybe we could try to focus on the "here and now" and discuss whether this system is even going to develop...there will be plenty of time to discuss track later in the weekend.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can't wait for the 00Z models. I really want to see what they have to say about the situation.

[SunnyThoughts]

Whichever way this disturbance heads...hopefully it will wake up the people who STILL haven't prepared for hurricane season. Procrastinators are running rampant in my area...even after Ivan...Dennis...and the outskirts of Katrina. Im sure the media will overblow even a tropical depression...but at least maybe it will prod those people who still haven't prepared, to do so. A long season ahead im afraid..gl to all the storm2k members.

[Opal storm]

I can't wait for the 00Z models. I really want to see what they have to say about the situation.

When do those come out?

[28_Storms]

We need the bear watch photo!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can't wait for the 00Z models. I really want to see what they have to say about the situation.

When do those come out?

the first few frames of the 00Z NAM and NAM-WRF are just now coming in and the rest of the models should soon follow. They should be complete within an hour or two.

[CHRISTY]

[dixiebreeze]

East coast trough axis now approaching FL. This major trough (for this time of the year) is starting to swing east and will eventually lift up to the NE to be replaced by that large Upper High now over NE TX. This should make conditions slowly more favorable in the GOM for development. The dry air will hinder it somewhat but that will begin to modify this weekend.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

I think you nailed it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Convection looks like it decreased with 90L.

[Ivanhater]

Whichever way this disturbance heads...hopefully it will wake up the people who STILL haven't prepared for hurricane season. Procrastinators are running rampant in my area...even after Ivan...Dennis...and the outskirts of Katrina. Im sure the media will overblow even a tropical depression...but at least maybe it will prod those people who still haven't prepared, to do so. A long season ahead im afraid..gl to all the storm2k members.

exactly, and good to see you back!

[Opal storm]

I can't wait for the 00Z models. I really want to see what they have to say about the situation.

When do those come out?

the first few frames of the 00Z NAM and NAM-WRF are just now coming in and the rest of the models should soon follow. They should be complete within an hour or two.

Okay.

[CHRISTY]

The NHC know says if the LLC moves away from land in the next day or two then conditions will be improveing for some slow development.

[Ivanhater]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Convection looks like it decreased with 90L.

it likely will be on and off again for the next couple of days, development should happen later on

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Convection looks like it decreased with 90L.

keep in mind that the circulation is actually well to the WSW of that mess of convection.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the 00Z NAM at 48 hrs. (late Saturday evening):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif