TWO/TWD updates 90L

Jim Cantore · #21 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:05 pm

Ill defined is an understatement

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 pm

607
ABNT20 KNHC 090215
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR EASTERN YUCATAN. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY FROM LAND WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

A slightly more bullish outlook from the 5:30 PM one.

#23 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:19 pm

here we go :eek:

CHRISTY · #24 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:21 pm

yea it now sounds like there expecting development....

#25 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:22 pm

possible 11:00 advisory?

HurricaneHunter914 · #26 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:22 pm

Well it it is hurricane season.

Extremeweatherguy · #27 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:22 pm

I think they seem to be expecting it too. Once this moves back over the ocean, the game is on!

HurricaneHunter914 · #28 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:23 pm

Now your making me excited.

#29 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:23 pm

what do the promets think?

Extremeweatherguy · #30 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:32 pm

fact789 wrote:possible 11:00 advisory?

no b/c they said "no signs of organization at this time", but an advisory is possible in 24-72 hours.

Stratosphere747 · #31 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:35 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I think they seem to be expecting it too. Once this moves back over the ocean, the game is on!

Where does it say "the seem to be expecting it too"

Just trying to clairfy...

Steve H. · #32 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:37 pm

Be careful with your interpretation of their words here. The TWO does NOT mean they are EXPECTING development. They are merely saying development is possible if/when the LLC moves away from land 8-)

Jim Cantore · #33 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:40 pm

All we can do is watch it, we have a few days to do so, but remember, one year ago right now, TD one was out in the caribbean so thats even bigger reason to keep an eye on the tropics.

This posts puts me within 10 of 5000

johngaltfla · #34 Postby **johngaltfla** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:45 pm

I'll be quite honest. The local channels have been advertising their "Hurricane Centers" heavily tonight and of course the usual "when it really counts, stay tuned here" on the radio tonight. Usually that's a clue that something is up and that the more experienced local mets might be expecting a problem next week.

I'm watching with both eyes wide open and not dismissing any model until we have a TD or TS to get some direction.

I'm going by Home Depot tommorrow and if it's mass hysteria, I'll report to the gang here......

Opal storm · #35 Postby **Opal storm** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:50 pm

johngaltfla wrote:I'll be quite honest. The local channels have been advertising their "Hurricane Centers" heavily tonight and of course the usual "when it really counts, stay tuned here" on the radio tonight. Usually that's a clue that something is up and that the more experienced local mets might be expecting a problem next week.

I'm watching with both eyes wide open and not dismissing any model until we have a TD or TS to get some direction.

I'm going by Home Depot tommorrow and if it's mass hysteria, I'll report to the gang here......

Yeah I was watching the news tonight and almost every commercial that came on was about hurricane preparation,I knew something was up.

canegrl04 · #36 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:52 pm

Very nice use of the emoticons

Thanks!

For some reason its my favorite :lol:

weatherwindow · #37 Postby **weatherwindow** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:21 pm

FWIW...the depth and extent of the convection over the nw carib is becoming much more impressive over the last six or so hours....may just be a diurnal max but definitely an impressive, if disorganized, blowup....am tending to agree with boca chris in a previous post...if the incipient center doesnt migrate too far inland over the next 36 hours, that convection could result in an offshore reformation toward the northnortheast....i dont believe the longwave pattern favors a northwesterly to westerly ultimate track. the ridge -trough pattern normally favors a series of short waves along the east coast trough which bias the ultimate track toward the north or northeast.....IMHO.......rich

meteorologyman · #38 Postby **meteorologyman** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:33 pm

Where is this low heading anyway????

Opal storm · #39 Postby **Opal storm** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:35 pm

meteorologyman wrote:Where is this low heading anyway????

Right now I think it's drifting NW or about stationary.

clfenwi · #40 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 12:48 am

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO A 1008 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N87W. THIS SETUP IS CONTINUING TO GIVE THE E CARIBBEAN
DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W.

From 0205 AM TWD

TWO/TWD updates 90L

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