Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[JamesFromMaine2]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85395
Thread #1

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85410
Thread #2

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85418
Thread #3

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85423
Thread #4


Invest 90L: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[gatorcane]

what happens when we hit 10 threads?

[JamesFromMaine2]

lol maybe time for a whole new forum? lol

[boca]

The screen turns green.

[gatorcane]

lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z GFS at 60 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[boca]

The other thread isn't locked why?

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z NAM/WRF at 84 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif

[gatorcane]

moderators haven't got to it yet I guess

[gatorcane]

wow GFS is showing it heading for the south-central GOM.....I hope it stays away from NOLA - even a TS will wreak havok.

[benny]

Two GFS runs in a row showing a fair storm in the central gulf of mexico... the upper environment isn't great but surely could support a strong TS... maybe similar to Arlene last year!

[JamesFromMaine2]

00Z NAM/WRF at 84 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif

That shows it as a 982mb Tropical Storm/Hurricane

[Extremeweatherguy]

Now here is the 00Z GFS at 72 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[CHRISTY]

[brunota2003]

what happens when we hit 10 threads?

You have to then type the "Numbers" into the computer and reset the clock, if you dont; a giant electromagnet turns on that can suck airplanes from the sky...lets see if anyone knows what I'm talking about...As for the Invest...it looks ok...cant believe we are on thread # 5 about this thing in about 12 hours...

[gatorcane]

yeah this will be our first TS - it is really making a good run for it - if it weren't for land it would already be one

[CHRISTY]

Guys after watching this all day is what i have come up for right now... 90L has little chance of getting its act together once it emerges in the gulf of mexico there is strong subsidance to the north of the system,there is also a north to NW flow in the mid to upper levels that will shear any convection that attemps to gather near the very weak low over the gulf.

also i might add we might not even have a low pressure center right now,but we might just have a broad surface trough to focus convection across the northern and western caribbean sea as upward motion will continue near the vicinity of the trough.

i woudn't be suprised if models start backing up on development.since this parade of troughs continue to dive across the gulf of mexico with bone dry air. chrisy

[clfenwi]

Picking up where we left off...

hmmmm. one over honduras, interesting.

Since it is farther east is that why the GFS is showing a more Eastern GOM storm possibility?

That would seem to be the case, yes. When I lookined at the steering currents forecasted by the 12Z models at the low levels, there appeared to be a bit of a junction, roughly east of the Yucatan, such that a system over the Yucatan would probably go (mostly) west, whereas a storm further east would go (mostly) north.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Guys after watching this all day is what i have come up for right now... 90L has little chance of getting its act together once it emerges in the gulf of mexico as strong subsidance is north of the system,there is also a north to NW flow in the mid to upper levels that will shear any convection that attemps to gather near the very weak low over the gulf.

also i might add we might not even have a low pressure center right now,but we might just have a broad surface trough to focus convection across the northern and western caribbean sea as upward motion will continue near the vicinity of the trough.

i woudn't be suprised if models start backing up on development.since this parade of troughs continue to dive across the gulf of mexico with bone dry air. chrisy

If you go back and read through the last 4 pages you will see that shear and moisture will not be a problem in a few days. The conditions will become more favorable. Also, we DO have an area of low pressure, it is broad...but it is there.

[boca]

Even along the N Gulf coast. Its bone dry.