Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Wnghs2007]

what happens when we hit 10 threads?

You have to then type the "Numbers" into the computer and reset the clock, if you dont; a giant electromagnet turns on that can suck airplanes from the sky...lets see if anyone knows what I'm talking about...As for the Invest...it looks ok...cant believe we are on thread # 5 about this thing in about 12 hours...

Ill tell you as long as you dont bash me with your "Jesus Stick".

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Anyway, off the Lost Subject, there are some really nice flares going on currently down in the caribbean. Will be nice to see if any sustain themselves. Probally not but its worth a shot to see.

[CHRISTY]

Even along the N Gulf coast. Its bone dry.

Thats my point boca....but of course nothing surprises me anymore after what happened in 2005.

[boca]

Are the troughs forecast to continue to penetrate the deep south or relax a bit.

[gatorcane]

Picking up where we left off...

hmmmm. one over honduras, interesting.

Since it is farther east is that why the GFS is showing a more Eastern GOM storm possibility?

That would seem to be the case, yes. When I lookined at the steering currents forecasted by the 12Z models at the low levels, there appeared to be a bit of a junction, roughly east of the Yucatan, such that a system over the Yucatan would probably go (mostly) west, whereas a storm further east would go (mostly) north.

thanks for the info - it all depends on where the final center develops..

[Cyclenall]

Guys after watching this all day is what i have come up for right now... 90L has little chance of getting its act together once it emerges in the gulf of mexico as strong subsidance is north of the system,there is also a north to NW flow in the mid to upper levels that will shear any convection that attemps to gather near the very weak low over the gulf.

also i might add we might not even have a low pressure center right now,but we might just have a broad surface trough to focus convection across the northern and western caribbean sea as upward motion will continue near the vicinity of the trough.

i woudn't be suprised if models start backing up on development.since this parade of troughs continue to dive across the gulf of mexico with bone dry air. chrisy

If you go back and read through the last 4 pages you will see that shear and moisture will not be a problem in a few days. The conditions will become more favorable.

I agree, it doesn't appear that the dry air will stick around for to much longer and the shear will change for the better. I think this system will form because everything seems in place for a tropical cyclone.

As for this topic getting to 50 pages, wow. That is quite insane and to think this is the first day of the Invest just boggles the mind to think what will happen once it becomes a Tropical Depression or TS.

[cmdebbie]

I love this forum; however, I cannot get any sleep and there is not even a "real" storm brewing yet. Wow, This sure is going to be a long, sleepless season.

[ALhurricane]

If the GFS was even remotely correct on the placement of the surface low, then there would be little if any chance for true development.

40-50kt at 300mb will give the low a good ole 'covective haircut.' In other words it will be sheared to pieces before it ever has a chance.

The only real place for some development would be down in the BOC. If something formed down there, then it wouldn't likely move too much with upper ridging building in.

FWIW, the new NAM WRF has proven itself to be the GFS of 3-5 years ago... spinning up everything in sight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z GFS at 90 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090l.gif


remember though that this system the GFS is predicting is coming from the "other" low over Honduras. Currently the NHC is not as interested in this low.

[benny]

Guys after watching this all day is what i have come up for right now... 90L has little chance of getting its act together once it emerges in the gulf of mexico there is strong subsidance to the north of the system,there is also a north to NW flow in the mid to upper levels that will shear any convection that attemps to gather near the very weak low over the gulf.

also i might add we might not even have a low pressure center right now,but we might just have a broad surface trough to focus convection across the northern and western caribbean sea as upward motion will continue near the vicinity of the trough.

i woudn't be suprised if models start backing up on development.since this parade of troughs continue to dive across the gulf of mexico with bone dry air. chrisy

Hmm. I don't think I buy your mechanisms on why it might not strengthen. There is something happening tonight... 24 hour pressure tendencies are down a couple of millibars and there is no lack of convection, albeit disorganized. There is a huge blowup over Honduras.. that has the potential if it moves northward to start an organizational trend by concentrating voriticity beneath it.. and could spin something up. it is interesting that the GFS suggests it will move northward... no more westward motion... we'll see what the other models hold later this morning...

[boca]

I have to be at work at 8am.

[CHRISTY]

If the GFS was even remotely correct on the placement of the surface low, then there would be little if any chance for true development.

40-50kt at 300mb will give the low a good ole 'covective haircut.' In other words it will be sheared to pieces before it ever has a chance.

The only real place for some development would be down in the BOC. If something formed down there, then it wouldn't likely move too much with upper ridging building in.

FWIW, the new NAM WRF has proven itself to be the GFS of 3-5 years ago... spinning up everything in sight.

thats what iam thinkin also.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like there may be some evidence of circulation south of Cuba on the Cuban radar. http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

[CHRISTY]

Guys after watching this all day is what i have come up for right now... 90L has little chance of getting its act together once it emerges in the gulf of mexico there is strong subsidance to the north of the system,there is also a north to NW flow in the mid to upper levels that will shear any convection that attemps to gather near the very weak low over the gulf.

also i might add we might not even have a low pressure center right now,but we might just have a broad surface trough to focus convection across the northern and western caribbean sea as upward motion will continue near the vicinity of the trough.

i woudn't be suprised if models start backing up on development.since this parade of troughs continue to dive across the gulf of mexico with bone dry air. chrisy

Hmm. I don't think I buy your mechanisms on why it might not strengthen. There is something happening tonight... 24 hour pressure tendencies are down a couple of millibars and there is no lack of convection, albeit disorganized. There is a huge blowup over Honduras.. that has the potential if it moves northward to start an organizational trend by concentrating voriticity beneath it.. and could spin something up. it is interesting that the GFS suggests it will move northward... no more westward motion... we'll see what the other models hold later this morning...

i agree benny covection has been flareing up late tonight...and yes we have to see if this north movement by the models continue's in the morning.

[TS Zack]

Wait and see PERIOD. Go to sleep! LOL

[boca]

we can use the rain from this system in Florida without the wind.

[MississippiHurricane]

Hello everybody! I'm new to this board and just wanted to know what is a invest 90L? Just trying to learn a bit more!

[CHRISTY]

we can use the rain from this system in Florida without the wind.

i have some roof leaks from wilma boca....

[cmdebbie]

we can use the rain from this system in Florida without the wind.

Yes, my new sod sure could use a good soakin' but if the winds come to...I might just be croakin'. lol

[cmdebbie]

Yes, my new sod sure could use a good soakin' but if the winds come to...I might just be croakin'. lol

I think I am becoming delirious or something...time for bed.

[boca]

Sorry about the roof Christy, what has my interest is down by the Cayman Islands not the Yucatan. Anyone else agree.