Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

CHRISTY · #121 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:29 am

skysummit wrote:
boca_chris wrote:I also don't think a low is over the Yucatan anymore as the energy is nearly all over water - I will pay close attention to the visibles today to identify any reforming of a low in the NW Caribbean north of Honduras or E of the Yucatan.

Should they send out a Recon for this investigation also?

Boca...they've already re-located the low off the coast of the Yucatan.

skysummit i think now that LLC is of shore it may very well develope.

rockyman · #122 Postby **rockyman** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:35 am

Not only has the low level "center" coalesced in the Gulf of Honduras, huge convection is being to form near the center in a spiral band...seeming to indicate that the center is in a conducive environment (though obviously hostile conditions exist just to the north in the Gomex).

CHRISTY · #123 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:36 am

guys i also think now that LLC has been repositoned to the NE it will be interesting to see what the models later today will be showing track wise.

rockyman · #124 Postby **rockyman** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:40 am

I think the Bay of Campeche solution is becoming more and more of a longshot...which means the biggest change this morning is that the system will probably be a U.S. threat.

Stratusxpeye · #125 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:41 am

Good morning all. Looks impressive today. Looks like everything is headed towards the east instead of the west today, as the trend has been over the past day or so. Landfall locaion if develops is still unknown to me but I would have to say a FL landfall. Maybe NW Panhandle or Big bend area depending on timing hough. I see this morning it may look like the center is not over land but has relocated east of the yucatan?

weatherwindow · #126 Postby **weatherwindow** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:41 am

would not be surprised to see a "tropical disturbance statement" issued this afternoon.....that said, i still dont see a TD today unless we see a reformation to the eastnortheast in the vicinity of those -70deg tops between swan island and the caymans....my oh my that is some serious convection......rich :roll:

#127 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:42 am

Good morning all. Looks impressive today. Looks like everything is headed towards the east instead of the west today, as the trend has been over the past day or so. Landfall locaion if develops is still unknown to me but I would have to say a FL landfall. Maybe NW Panhandle or Big bend area depending on timing hough. I see this morning it may look like the center is not over land but has relocated east of the yucatan?

Good morning - it would seem the energy keep shifting more east but that is due to the strong SW to NE shear over the system. I have doubted the whole time a BOC storm considering the flow in this region for many months has been dominated by the westerlies. That is nothing in the region that the system is in has moved off to the West yet - we'll have to wait about a month or so until easterlies take over the area in my opinion.

CHRISTY · #128 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:43 am

convection is now fireing up near the LLC....this will be interesting to see what happens this afternoon.

#129 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:44 am

Christy where exactly is the LLC? Could you put up a map and point to it?

CHRISTY · #130 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:47 am

boca_chris wrote:Christy where exactly is the LLC? Could you put up a map and point to it?

boca iam at work i cant put a pic....but go to the new sat page from noaa with all the new floaters and click on floater 1 and then click on fronts.u will see it. :wink:

#131 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:49 am

okay thanks

rockyman · #132 Postby **rockyman** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:49 am

"Popcorn" thunderstorm are popping up on the north side of the center...indicative of low shear in that area...but immediately to the north (between Cancun and the Belize border) is some pretty strong shear and dryer air...this will have to modify for the storm to become anything more than a weaker, sheared system.

Thunder44 · #133 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:50 am

One ship report from 12z shows an ESE wind. This was taken not to far east from buoy 42056.

C6KJ5 12 20.8 -86.7 100 5.1 - - - 29.82 +0.00

If there was a closed LLC we should at least a more NE wind there.

#134 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:51 am

Just made a new model map. Note that the tropical models tend to move the system much more slowly than the GFS or ECMWF:

#135 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:55 am

interesting model run but the new globals models have it curving into Florida. What do you think about the GFS/CMC/GFDL are turning it NE?

Wnghs2007 · #136 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:55 am

wxman57 wrote:Just made a new model map. Note that the tropical models tend to move the system much more slowly than the GFS or ECMWF:

Why are most of the models on the said map from 18z Yesterday :?:

The GFDL is even from 12z Yesterday....

Notice the times say 08/18 or 08/12 which means June 8 @ 18z and June 8 @ 12z so these are all old plots

#137 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:56 am

yeah that is an old run I think....

CHRISTY · #138 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:56 am

wxman57 wrote:Just made a new model map. Note that the tropical models tend to move the system much more slowly than the GFS or ECMWF:

wxman57 i just dont see it moving in the area those models are showin.we will all find out eventually. :wink:

#139 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:57 am

Christy it must be an older run...

#140 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:58 am

These two show Florida hits, but just a tropical storm.

CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr

GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=108hr

Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

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