Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

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skysummit
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#141 Postby skysummit » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:58 am

I believe those models will be very different once they're originated on a defined center.
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CHRISTY

#142 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:00 am

skysummit wrote:I believe those models will be very different once they're originated on a defined center.


yes....lookin forward to the models this afternoon.
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#143 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:10 am

I think the models all come down to timing...if the system sits around in the NW Carib for too long, it will miss its chance to go north and east and will be forced to the west beneath a building high...I'm making this up as I go along, but it sounds good :)
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#144 Postby skysummit » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:12 am

Here's my latest plot with the 00z tropical models, 06z GFS, and 06z NAM.

Image
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#145 Postby N2FSU » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:12 am

Here's the discussion from the New Orleans NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
332 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF PRECIP. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
FLATTEN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE INTERESTING FOR THE GULF COAST AS AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS PUSHES THE SYSTEM INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA...THE NAM AND UKMET TOWARD TEXAS...AND THE ECMWF
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. WE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BUT LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
THUS
OUR BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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#146 Postby Rainband » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:16 am

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

Our locals are watcing as well. I hope we do get rain from this. We need it very badly. Pasco is one of the red counties on the drought index map. Either way the rainy season should start soon :wink:
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Tallahassee NWS AFD...

#147 Postby N2DaTropics » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:17 am

MOST LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ACTUALLY...ITS CURRENTLY
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
INTERACTION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTHWESTWARD THEN TURNS GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. MOST MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND
A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE ARRIVING BY EARLY MONDAY. STILL...THERE
ARE LARGE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AND THE FACT THAT
DEVELOPMENT HAS YET TO OCCUR ALL MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT TO
ACCURATELY FORECAST SYSTEM`S FUTURE.
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#148 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:19 am

The 00z Euro is showing another trough dipping down into the Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic, forcing a weakness between the Bermuda high and the high that is attempting to slide east from west Texas area...this western high actually retrogades back into New Mexico...allowing 90L to slip right up the middle toward the northern Gulf Coast. Also, the trough weakens and reorients the Bermuda high's northwest quadrant, allowing the storm to eventually turn NE before landfall.

I haven't checked the other globals, but they all are starting to get onboard with a recurving storm and a NE Gulf of Mexico threat.
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#149 Postby isobar0512 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:22 am

Do you have a link to the 00z Euro?
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#150 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:24 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060609 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060609 1200 060610 0000 060610 1200 060611 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 85.0W 19.0N 85.0W 20.7N 86.0W 23.0N 87.1W
BAMM 18.0N 85.0W 18.8N 85.7W 19.9N 87.2W 21.4N 88.8W
A98E 18.0N 85.0W 18.4N 84.0W 19.3N 84.0W 20.0N 84.6W
LBAR 18.0N 85.0W 18.7N 84.8W 20.3N 85.4W 22.3N 86.3W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060611 1200 060612 1200 060613 1200 060614 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 87.5W 28.8N 85.4W 30.9N 81.7W 34.8N 76.9W
BAMM 23.0N 90.1W 24.8N 90.9W 24.0N 90.4W 24.2N 88.9W
A98E 21.3N 85.3W 23.7N 85.9W 26.6N 84.1W 30.6N 79.4W
LBAR 24.4N 86.7W 27.5N 84.3W 28.8N 79.2W 33.0N 73.0W
SHIP 51KTS 57KTS 54KTS 44KTS
DSHP 40KTS 46KTS 43KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 85.0W DIRCUR = 85DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 86.8W DIRM12 = 87DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 88.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#151 Postby wzrgirl1 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:25 am

also i would love some new model plots....i like the one from weather underground but can't seem to find it on their site..........thanks
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#152 Postby tgenius » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:27 am

Based on analysis and everything documented in the pressure ranges and the LLC being off land, this will *probably* form into TD1 by end of this weekend I think.
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#153 Postby N2DaTropics » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:27 am

rockyman wrote:The 00z Euro is showing another trough dipping down into the Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic, forcing a weakness between the Bermuda high and the high that is attempting to slide east from west Texas area...this western high actually retrogades back into New Mexico...allowing 90L to slip right up the middle toward the northern Gulf Coast. Also, the trough weakens and reorients the Bermuda high's northwest quadrant, allowing the storm to eventually turn NE before landfall.

I haven't checked the other globals, but they all are starting to get onboard with a recurving storm and a NE Gulf of Mexico threat.



Like everyone else in Florida (and the rest of the SE) we would love to see some rain come our way up here in the FL Panhandle...we are a negative 8" for rainfall so far...wildfires are cropping up daily in the rural areas and the Apalachicola River at Blountstown is at 2 1/2 ft....it is getting pretty serious...no storm please, just send RAIN!!!!
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#154 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:28 am

12:00z Plots Graphic

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Above are the 12:00z tracks.
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#155 Postby Roxy » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:30 am

cycloneye wrote:12:00z Plots Graphic

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Above are the 12:00z tracks.


Hmmm, they seem to be straigtening out a bit.
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Opal storm

#156 Postby Opal storm » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:32 am

What is up with the GFDL model?
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#157 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:33 am

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#158 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:35 am

Opal storm wrote:What is up with the GFDL model?


We are waiting on the newest run from the gfdl notice the time of initialization.
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GFDL

#159 Postby Clint_TX » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:36 am

IMO the GFDL has been on the money more often than not with similar systems in a similar location.
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#160 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:37 am

Here are my thoughts about the setup...The globals are predicting that the storm will slide up between the ridges and then curve northeast as a trough swings into the Ohio Valley.

Some of the tropical models are predicting that the storm will miss this weakness and, instead, move slowly west beneath the high over the southwest.

I'm breaking my own rule a little by posting the image instead of a link :lol:

Image
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