Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[wxman57]

Sorry, I posted the wrong link to the new models:



I also made a high-res visible shot with surface obs:

[jdray]

Rocky, that graphic is about right.
good pic to show what might be going on.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like something is definitely trying to get organized off
the Honduras coastline.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

One thing I notice is that the 06Z GFS initialized VERY POORLY with respect to upper level winds. Water vapor clearly shows strong WSW winds through southern Florida and moderate northerly flow across the NE Caribbean. GFS shows light and variable winds in both areas. So BEWARE the GFS for now. I did notice that the NAM has at least the proper upper-level wind at 00hr.

[skysummit]

Wxman...those are the 00z plots. Time for a new graphic!

[wzrgirl1]

One thing I notice is that the 06Z GFS initialized VERY POORLY with respect to upper level winds. Water vapor clearly shows strong WSW winds through southern Florida and moderate northerly flow across the NE Caribbean. GFS shows light and variable winds in both areas. So BEWARE the GFS for now. I did notice that the NAM has at least the proper upper-level wind at 00hr.

do you have a link for the NAM please?

[brunota2003]

Great...now I gotta start watching this blob really close...with most of the models showing it going across Florida and towards the NC coast...we have plenty of rain...dont need anymore...

[skysummit]

Here's a 12z plot with the 06z NAM....

[gatorcane]

Great...now I gotta start watching this blob really close...with most of the models showing it going across Florida and towards the NC coast...we have plenty of rain...dont need anymore...

Florida cannot afford another hit even from a TS -

[gatorcane]

yep models are coming into agreement with my initial take on the system a few days ago. There is that NE turn they all showing now - based on a trough expected to swing in and pick it up.

[wxman57]

Wxman...those are the 00z plots. Time for a new graphic!

Still don't have anything new since 00Z except for the BAM models. And the BAMS didn't appear to come in.

[gatorcane]

it is very common for the w coast of Florida to get hit by something this time of year.

[skysummit]

Wxman...those are the 00z plots. Time for a new graphic!

Still don't have anything new since 00Z except for the BAM models. And the BAMS didn't appear to come in.

...but your BAMM and BAMD are old on that graphic.

[cycloneye]

wxman57 I posted the 12:00z run of the BAMS,Check page 8.

[gatorcane]

has anybody even prepared along the west coast of Florida?

[wzrgirl1]

wow amazing that the NAM is completely opposite from the rest........why is that...........I guess that model does not see the trough?

[x-y-no]

One thing I notice is that the 06Z GFS initialized VERY POORLY with respect to upper level winds. Water vapor clearly shows strong WSW winds through southern Florida and moderate northerly flow across the NE Caribbean. GFS shows light and variable winds in both areas. So BEWARE the GFS for now. I did notice that the NAM has at least the proper upper-level wind at 00hr.

No kidding ... this morning's KMIA sounding had 95 knot WSW winds at 200mb, 60 knots at 300mb.


Looks like the GFS initialization blew that completely.

[gatorcane]

can somebody explain why all the models suddenly are picking up on a trough now - a very different story from yesterday. Can somebody show me the trough developing in Canada that could move it NE? Is it because they are initializing the system farther East now?

[drezee]

Mobile NWS DIscussion

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THERE IS MUCH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AFTER MULTIPLE MODEL
RUNS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN EITHER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OR AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN GULF...NOW JUST ABOUT ALL LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON WHAT WE'LL CALL A "LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM" DEVELOPING IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH ADVANCES NORTHWESTWARD THEN TURNS
GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF. THERE ARE LARGE TIMING AND MOVEMENT DIFFERENCES
AND THE FACT THAT DEVELOPMENT HAS YET TO OCCUR ALL MAKES IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER CRITICAL QUESTIONS LIKE WHERE AND WHEN. WITH
THIS ISSUANCE...HAVE STAYED WITH SMALL POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR CHANCE POPS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE
ENTIRE GULF COAST WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. /29

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 091307
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
907 AM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.UPDATE...UPPER TROF PERSISTS DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THRU FL.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO ALLOW MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN
LEAN ON NAM PROGGES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION INT SOUTHERN AREAS ON
SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING CLOSEST
TO MOISTURE SOURCE. WHILE OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AS 12Z
SOUNDING ONLY SHOWING 1.04 PWATS AND LARGE DRY.

MORE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS AN EASTERN GULF SOLUTION TO TROPICAL
FEATURE IN NW CARIB. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND COORDINATE WITH
NHC/HPC ON FORECASTS IF NEEDED.

WILL UPDATE FORECASTS TO TREND TOWARDS MORE MOIST SOLUTIONS DAY 3-5.