Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #6

[Stormcenter]

I have a good feeling that TD1 is going to be here by evening. Also, since this is further east...my earlier TX prediction may not come to partition. Right now I am going to forecast Mobile, AL as where I think this ends up.

A "good" feeling? I guess that would be good if this turns out to be primarily (likely) a rain maker and help with the drought situation in LA. and other areas along the central and eastern Gulf coast.

[fwbbreeze]

great graphic mtm...judging by the winds at the observation points there seems to be some type of circulation present.

fwbbreeze

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm thinking moderate-high TS, with the shear decreasing in the GOM we could have another Arlene-like storm form.

[Stormcenter]

I think this is more of a Northern Gulf situation than Florida. The models always overestimate the troughs this time of year.

I don't think so - the troughs have been very strong lately, so this one will be no different. Remember how strong the last one was last week?

Florida in my opinion.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll personally wait to see where the NHC say it will go, after the TD really forms.

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, still calling for a Florida hit - not sure about Big Bend vs. Florida west coast though - it is hard to say without a definite center yet, models need to initialize on that center.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope Florida gets this sytem, I've said this before and I'll say it again, WE NEED RAIN!

[Scorpion]

Big Bend is the furthest east I would say.

[brunota2003]

464
NOUS42 KNHC 091500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 09 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-009

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR YUCATAN.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 10/1530Z
D. 20.0N AND 86.0W
E. 10/1700 TO 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
OR FIX MISSION NEAR 24N AND 88W 11/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

There you go boys and girls...are ya'll happy now?

[Noles2006]

Yes, still calling for a Florida hit - not sure about Big Bend vs. Florida west coast though - it is hard to say without a definite center yet, models need to initialize on that center.

You gotta include the panhandle, too.

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see a potential landfall around Mobile.

[curtadams]

If the buoy-based guesstimes we're making for the center are right the TD is forming from a different center considerably east of what the models are working on. So the model tracks really don't mean much. The GFDL in particular still seems to "lose" the system - it starts near Belize and just sits there as a highly sheared mild system goes through the Gulf and over the Big Bend (looking like just what the Floridians want - good rain and a weak system).

[gatorcane]

If the buoy-based guesstimes we're making for the center are right the TD is forming from a different center considerably east of what the models are working on. So the model tracks really don't mean much. The GFDL in particular still seems to "lose" the system - it starts near Belize and just sits there as a highly sheared mild system goes through the Gulf and over the Big Bend (looking like just what the Floridians want - good rain and a weak system).

Are you saying the tracks could be shifted more east in the next run into Southwest Florida instead of the West coast of Florida?

[HurricaneHunter914]

For all we know this sytem will dissapate before it makes landfall anywhere.

[storm4u]

464
NOUS42 KNHC 091500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 09 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-009

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR YUCATAN.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 10/1530Z
D. 20.0N AND 86.0W
E. 10/1700 TO 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
OR FIX MISSION NEAR 24N AND 88W 11/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

There you go boys and girls...are ya'll happy now?

[jrod]

I don't see a lot over westerly winds to the north or west of it. The only westerlies,the ones over Cuba and the Bahamas, look like they are going to move out to sea without the storm, so I don't know if Florida will get anything soon from it. THere is a reason why most of the models are taking it north and west.

[gatorcane]

most models take it North than North and East jrod. Have you seen the latest runs? The trough will come in several days down the road so you don't see it right now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I haven't seen the models today. Does anyone have a link to what the models are forecasting today?

[skysummit]

I haven't seen the models today. Does anyone have a link to what the models are forecasting today?

Look in this thread....either the last page, or the one before.

[beachbum_al]

Don't freak out...but look at where the NHC is predicting this thing to go:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Yep I am freaking out just for that. I don't think anyone knows where this thing will head or what it will have instore for us. The best thing to do is be prepare.

[jrod]

I just looked at them, about 72hours+ is when the next trough is due. A slow north path until the trough gets here seems likely right now.


Unisys usually has updated computer models.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/