Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #6

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

Are starting to agree with each other, the GFDL I have no idea what its thinking.

[terstorm1012]

it appears the GFDL is initializing a more southern center

[fwbbreeze]

from the 46th weather squadron at Eglin Air Force Base in the panhandle of Florida.

http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/

1000L 9 June Tropical Update:

The area of thunderstorm activity in the northwest Caribbean, west of the Cayman Islands, is beginning to show signs of organization into a tropical low pressure system. This is a region, where the sea surface temperatures tend to be very warm, that spawned many of the storms we saw in 2005. Computer models show this disturbance is expected to drift northward into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. While atmospheric conditions are currently unfavorable to sustain tropical cyclone development right now in the Gulf (very dry air aloft in place over the Gulf in the layer between 10,000 and 20,000 feet with significant wind shear), these hostile conditions may let up enough over the next 36 to 48 hours to allow a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Alberto to form.

Most of the computer model guidance points the system eventually toward the Big Bend of Florida near Steinhatchee (southeast of Tallahassee) coming ashore sometime early Tuesday (see graphic below the satellite image). If this scenario pans out, it would mean little or no impact to the Eglin Reservation with only light northeasterly winds and no rain (since we would be on the dry side of the storm with sinking air). However, one computer model still has a more westerly track that would bring the center to around Apalachicola. It is also far too early to rule out a track that brings the system over the western Panhandle, so it must be closely watched over the weekend. Based on what we see now, intensification into a full hurricane is very unlikely.

A reconnaissance aircraft from Keesler AFB is scheduled to investigate the system Saturday morning. The 46th WS will closely monitor the situation and provide updates as needed.


fwbbreeze

[benny]

09/15 42056 19.9 -85.1 26.3C 25.2C 050 12 G21 kt 1007.0 mb

1007 mb at this time of the day.. down from 1011.9 at this time yesterday.. it seems to be only a question of when not if. best circulation is still south of that buoy. 12z gfs will of course be interesting.

[gatorcane]

does anybody have a nice SST chart showing the water temps in the NW Caribbean and GOM?

[curtadams]

Are you saying the tracks could be shifted more east in the next run into Southwest Florida instead of the West coast of Florida?

That would be the simplest explanation but the globals (which aren't affected by center guesses) are still all over the map. One landfall in the Yucatan, one fizzle on the way to Texas, and two Big Bend landfalls. With a jet and a trough nearby the steering is pretty complicated. So I assume the local models could throw up some surprises. I suspect that a non-Big Bend track will give a weaker storm - the globals going west give weaker storms and easterly it will hit the tail end of the subtropical jet.

[Pearl River]

HurricaneHunter914 wrote

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Are starting to agree with each other, the GFDL I have no idea what its thinking.

Look at the top of the chart. The dates and times are incorrect.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Are starting to agree with each other, the GFDL I have no idea what its thinking.

The only models I see on here are the LBAR (worst model for tropical systems), the NHCA98E (which I believe is a models that bases it's track on climate), the BAMD (which is good for major hurricanes south of 20N), and then the BAMM (which is actually pretty good) that has this thing seem to stall in the central Gulf.

[dixiebreeze]

Next 36 hours -- here it is!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

[gatorcane]

Next 36 hours -- here it is!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

Thanks dixie - confirming what we here at storm2k have been anticipating for a couple of days now...

[jrod]

It still looks ugly.

Im starting to think it may impact my travel plans, im suppose to catch a flight out of JAX on tuesday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091524
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS THAT ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE
NEXT OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DOES NOT FORM...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

That's weird that they will inspect it tomorrow and not today.

[Weatherfreak000]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Are starting to agree with each other, the GFDL I have no idea what its thinking.

Geez, -removed-? (that was ajoke)

The models in that graphics that are slamming this system that way are ALL useless. LBAR, BAMD and A98E? Come on seriously.


I think Florida is definitely looking good. However, I think if Florida does get this, it'll be in the Panhandle. But those are my thoughts.



Also interesting to note, everyone has saying this year we'd get no where near 2005 when now it's conceiveable we could have our first named system form on the same date as last year. And development is expected after the 20th. All signs are pointing thus far to an on par season to 2005.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Why do you think its weird? If they do it tomorrow then they might find a TS instead of a TD.

[fwbbreeze]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Are starting to agree with each other, the GFDL I have no idea what its thinking.

Geez, -removed-?

The models in that graphics that are slamming this system that way are ALL useless. LBAR, BAMD and A98E? Come on seriously.


I think Florida is definitely looking good. However, I think if Florida doesn't get this, it'll be in the Panhandle. But those are my thoughts.



Also interesting to note, everyone has saying this year we'd get no where near 24 when now it's conceiveable we could have our first named system form on the same date as last year. And development is expected after the 20th. All signs are pointing thus far to an on par season to 2005.

Wait a minute...I thought the Panhandle WAS in Florida....and to think I have been living in Alabama all these years

fwbbreeze

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Are starting to agree with each other, the GFDL I have no idea what its thinking.

Geez, -removed-? (that was ajoke)

The models in that graphics that are slamming this system that way are ALL useless. LBAR, BAMD and A98E? Come on seriously.


I think Florida is definitely looking good. However, I think if Florida does get this, it'll be in the Panhandle. But those are my thoughts.



Also interesting to note, everyone has saying this year we'd get no where near 24 when now it's conceiveable we could have our first named system form on the same date as last year. And development is expected after the 20th. All signs are pointing thus far to an on par season to 2005.

Ummm... he wasn't -removed-.

[skysummit]

The 12Z GFS is FINALLY starting to initialize.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[Weatherfreak000]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Are starting to agree with each other, the GFDL I have no idea what its thinking.

Geez, -removed-? (that was ajoke)

The models in that graphics that are slamming this system that way are ALL useless. LBAR, BAMD and A98E? Come on seriously.


I think Florida is definitely looking good. However, I think if Florida does get this, it'll be in the Panhandle. But those are my thoughts.



Also interesting to note, everyone has saying this year we'd get no where near 24 when now it's conceiveable we could have our first named system form on the same date as last year. And development is expected after the 20th. All signs are pointing thus far to an on par season to 2005.

Ummm... he wasn't -removed-.

I know, I forgot to add the part describing I was joking, pardon me.

[Stormcenter]

It is looking better and better with EVERY passing hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[benny]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Are starting to agree with each other, the GFDL I have no idea what its thinking.

Also interesting to note, everyone has saying this year we'd get no where near 2005 when now it's conceiveable we could have our first named system form on the same date as last year. And development is expected after the 20th. All signs are pointing thus far to an on par season to 2005.

Things aren't as favorable for hurricanes as last year at this time. The SSTs are a lot lower in the tropical Atlantic waters.. and that will control the start of the tropical wave development aka Dennis/Emily type systems. The upper winds have been favorable though but something is a little different with the Atlantic ridge than last year in terms of the trade winds.. they have generally been a little stronger-than-average. But it may not matter much.. 10 versus 15 hurricanes? yipes