Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #6

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z GFS shows the same....Florida Big Bend landfall.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

It also shows this as a very weak (probably not even TD) system. What would happen if this was a stronger system I wonder?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Not only that the cone is showing that this system can hit anywhere from Texas all the Way to Florida.

What cone?

Sorry I was a little late in posting. I was trying to quote HURAKAN's post.

Here's HURAKAN's post:
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

JUST A FACT:

The last time the Atlantic when back-to-back with storms in June was 1996-1997.

[skysummit]

Boca_Chris...that's not a cone of landfall projections. That's simply highlighting the area of possible development.

[gatorcane]

Boca_Chris...that's not a cone of landfall projections. That's simply highlighting the area of possible development.

I know, I edited my post right when you posted this

[shaggy]

the reason i pointed that out was because of the "slight" concern my local NWS office had at some of the models even tho its WAY to early to put any faith in them yet.If the spin near the caymens becomes the main center then that certainly changes the outcome of the track of the system.I dont expect this to be a storng system even if it does come up the east coast however we really dont need the rain.Here is what they said in the discussion this morning!

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FLOW
BECOMES AMPLIFIED AGAIN WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS
AND A STRONG CENTRAL UPPER RIDGE. OF CONCERN IS THE MODEL FORECAST
OF A GOM TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE GFDL/CMC/AND GFS BRING A STRONG SYSTEM
ACROSS FL THEN ALONG/OFF THE NC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS LOSE THE SYSTEM AFTER DAY 3. OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLN IS LOW THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...THEREFORE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
EXTENDED GRIDS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE

its only the 1st week of june and we have already had 5 inches of rain this month and that sets us up for more flooding if a real system ever does come thru NC

[southerngale]

Not only that the cone is showing that this system can hit anywhere from Texas all the Way to Florida.

What cone?

not really a cone but a probability area of TS formation

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

Ok, thanks. Yeah, I don't think that's showing where *it* could make landfall, but just showing where they believe development could occur. I was thinking "What??? A cone showing landfall? It's just an invest!"

[GalvestonDuck]

Great information, guys. But do I see an eye?






*snicker* Sorry, somebody had to be the first nut this season!

[gatorcane]

Based on my latest satellite infrared inspection, looks like alot of thunderstorms are beginning to fire around the proposed center with very cold cloud tops - looks to me like it is getting better organized fairly quickly today. Shear is also relaxing around the LLC based on my visual inspection.

Here is the latest loop showing this:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[meteorologyman]

here is more SAT pics, SST's and etc...
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

[meteorologyman]

the storm looks like it is wrapping itself up

[Cyclenall]

This system is getting organized quickly. It looks like a Tropical Storm right now but that's how it always looks just before it becomes a depression. I have a feeling Tropical Depression 1 is going to form today!! Don't count on it though.

[dixiebreeze]

Hard to think this will be inland very long -- if at all:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

[gatorcane]

Here is the latest shear map folks. Looking like there is little shear around it right now:

There is only about 5-10K of shear. GOM is looking more favorable also.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[x-y-no]

12z GFS has it as a weak, broad low crossing Florida (lots of rain for the lower 2/3 of the peninsula) but then intensifies it more after it emerges in the Atlantic:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp1_120.shtml


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp1_126.shtml

[HollynLA]

This system is getting organized quickly.

Exactly my thoughts, certainly alot quicker than many anticipated last night.

Which area has a more favorable environment for developement? the west to TX route or the East to FL route?

[HURAKAN]

This system is getting organized quickly.

Exactly my thoughts, certainly alot quicker than many anticipated last night.

Which area has a more favorable environment for developement? the west to TX route or the East to FL route?

[jrod]

Looks like there are 2 or 3 areas where a LLC may be trying to form. Typical of an unorganized system trying to develop.

[no advance]

thats good news xyz we need some surf bad. it has been a terrible year for us east c. boardsliders. please god send us surf.

[x-y-no]

This system is getting organized quickly.

Exactly my thoughts, certainly alot quicker than many anticipated last night.

Which area has a more favorable environment for developement? the west to TX route or the East to FL route?

Most favorable for development would be if it stays over the NW Caribbean and moves very slowly north, I think. Crossing the Yucatan would disorganize it significantly, and while the Bay of Campeche is nice and warm, it would have less room for development there than in the NW Carib.

[drezee]

You can see in the IR and the VIS that the mid-level "center" is peeling off to the NE. There can be no rapid development with such a thing. A new one would need to form.