Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[HurricaneHunter914]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

at this point I am calling for a TS into the big bend area or w coast of Florida (within 50 miles of the Tampa area).

that would be perfect. give us all the rain we need and a lil wind to blow these dumb pine needles and dead branches off all my trees. Just no more than 50-60mph. Just want a fun weather system to track not death and destruction. If its a cat 2 or higher ill put up a wall and deflect it back down south where it came from

[Rainband]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[brunota2003]

NOT OFFICIAL:
Also...how intense the system becomes will also depend on how organized it becomes...if it stays this blobby thingy it is now...no way it could be a mid-TS...if it becomes better organized though...

[Air Force Met]

This thing is developing in the SW corner of the NW Carrib. Based on this...it may actually still have a chance to be a western Gulf problem. JB is suppose to come out with a detailed post on this situation later today. Can't wait to see what he'll say.

Don't think so...think this is an eastern GOM problem.

EDIT: And I don't think it will be that much of a problem. Dry air and shear will keep it in check...lots of rain though on the east side.

[boca]

Vbhoutex good point timing is everything. If the weakness does form lookout for your area,but you need the rain anyway.

[gatorcane]

This is from Jeff, one of our pro-mets in an email he sends out to his TX area subscribers.

Track:



Model guidance is heavy spilt and in little agreement with where the actual center will form, if it does. Controlling features include the current ridge of high pressure over TX and a forecasted weakness to develop over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week. The area should drift slowly toward the WNW or NW for the next 24-48 hours and then move into the Yucatan this weekend and the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Land interactions along with the poor organization make it very difficult to try and determine where a center will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico. NHC/HPC progs show a wave axis with surface low in the western Gulf of Mexico off the lower TX coast during the early the middle part of next week however the GFS takes the system toward FL.



Local Forecast:



Upper ridge remains in firm control of our weather with near record heat being produced as a result. Ridge will shift eastward with a weakness developing over E TX late in the weekend into early next week. At this point a potential tropical system may be moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Forecast after Monday is highly dependant on a tropical system in the Gulf and location of a weakness in the upper level height field along the Gulf coast for track.

If the ridge does indeed move east I would say the E GOM is pretty much in the clear. Of course, TIMING IS EVERYTHING, so as usual we just wait and see. It doesn't appear that anything will be anywhere near definite till late in the weekend at earliest.

Boca_Chris, would you please explain your reasoning in light of the above post?

While there is ridge developing over Texas I think the forecasted trough that is supposed to swing through the Ohio River valley will be enough to pull the system NE. If you look at the history of this system it has made 0 progress Westward, though many thought it would be in the BOC by now including the models. Now the models are also coming into agreement that a NE turn will happen.

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L



INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 9



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 17.7 85.2 85./ 8.0

6 18.2 84.9 29./ 5.0

12 18.5 84.9 355./ 3.6

18 19.6 85.0 356./10.6

24 20.8 85.5 338./12.7

30 21.9 85.9 341./11.7

36 23.1 86.6 332./13.5

42 24.1 86.8 344./10.6

48 25.8 87.1 351./16.7

54 26.8 86.9 12./10.3

60 27.6 86.4 32./ 8.5

66 28.4 85.5 46./11.3

72 29.0 84.6 58./10.5

78 29.8 83.1 62./14.8

84 30.1 81.5 77./14.4

90 30.8 79.9 68./15.3

96 31.8 78.2 60./17.6

102 32.7 76.7 60./15.8

108 33.7 74.9 59./18.4

114 35.4 72.8 51./23.6

120 37.8 70.1 48./32.2

126 40.7 67.2 45./36.8


12z GFDL

[Rainband]

This thing is developing in the SW corner of the NW Carrib. Based on this...it may actually still have a chance to be a western Gulf problem. JB is suppose to come out with a detailed post on this situation later today. Can't wait to see what he'll say.

Don't think so...think this is an eastern GOM problem.

We need rain thats for sure. Glad this wont amount to much

[Evil Jeremy]

is South Florida in the clear?

[boca]

no well get rain too if it moves northward.

[skysummit]

Geez...some mets say west gulf, some say central gulf, and some say eastern gulf. It's amazing! I'm doing my own thing and not really listening to anyone because the way it looks right now, amateurs know about as much as the pros.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is 7 threads already??? WOW

[wxman57]

Don't think so...think this is an eastern GOM problem.

EDIT: And I don't think it will be that much of a problem. Dry air and shear will keep it in check...lots of rain though on the east side.

I'm tending to agree. If it moves northward and develops, that ridge over Texas with northerly winds aloft would prevent any movement toward us. WSW winds in the mid to upper levels across the central and eastern Gulf would carry it NE.

[Rainband]

Geez...some mets say west gulf, some say central gulf, and some say eastern gulf. It's amazing! I'm doing my own thing and not really listening to anyone because the way it looks right now, amateurs know about as much as the pros.

Not exactly

[HurricaneHunter914]

If you look at the Visible loop you can see the circulation in Invest 90L very clearly.

[Ivan14]

IMHO I think it will make landfall in Panama City.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this forms then we will be on line with last year. If not we fall behind last year.

[boca]

It looks like an ever so slight banding with this system.

[Evil Jeremy]

Eye forming by the looks of it

[gatorcane]

Don't think so...think this is an eastern GOM problem.

EDIT: And I don't think it will be that much of a problem. Dry air and shear will keep it in check...lots of rain though on the east side.

I'm tending to agree. If it moves northward and develops, that ridge over Texas with northerly winds aloft would prevent any movement toward us. WSW winds in the mid to upper levels across the central and eastern Gulf would carry it NE.

I'm not so sure about that - this thing is harnessing alot of moisture as we speak - enough to carry it up into the Eastern GOM with no problem. As for shear there is not much of it right now in the GOM based on the latest shear maps - just about 10K in the GOM