Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[gatorcane]

Looking at the latest sat pics - I wouldn't be surpised if the new center is positioned farther east...there is a decent circulation now just SW of the Cayman islands. There is an "illusion" there is a center there that is drifting NE.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think thats the MLC there appears to be a LLC with cloud movement coming in on all sides at 18 north/85.2 west. I think we may have a depression. It appears to be not moving at all.

[Evil Jeremy]

when i say eye, i mean a point in which the circulation center is, but not a eye wall.

[gatorcane]

I think thats the MLC there appears to be a LLC with cloud movement coming in on all sides at 18 north/85.2 west. I think we may have a depression. It appears to be not moving at all.

Matt looks like the center is about 150 miles East of where the NHC has it right now.

[wxman57]

I snapped a couple of images in GARP and did a little editing to add in highs/lows and jet stream flow for 12Z Monday.

250mb
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto4.gif

500mb
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto5.gif

Anything in the NE or SE Gulf Monday will not be going to Texas. Shear looks moderate at best.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think thats the MLC there appears to be a LLC with cloud movement coming in on all sides at 18 north/85.2 west. I think we may have a depression. It appears to be not moving at all.

Have you seen the Visible loop yet? I'm just asking.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I'v seen the visible.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think thats the MLC there appears to be a LLC with cloud movement coming in on all sides at 18 north/85.2 west. I think we may have a depression. It appears to be not moving at all.

Matt looks like the center is about 150 miles East of where the NHC has it right now.

There doe's not appear to be at the surface the one to the west appears to be near the surface.

[shaggy]

to be honest theres several "swirls" down there and in the poorly organized state that its in anyone of these could become a more dominant feature which could and would change the outcome totally so i for one will sit back and see what happens it sounds like we will have plenty of time to watch the developments to see what happens!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Any ways we will find out when the recon gets in there.

[gatorcane]

I snapped a couple of images in GARP and did a little editing to add in highs/lows and jet stream flow for 12Z Monday.

250mb
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto4.gif

500mb
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto5.gif

Anything in the NE or SE Gulf Monday will not be going to Texas. Shear looks moderate at best.

moderate shear? So there could be some development then in the GOM

[HurricaneHunter914]

We could have a Fujiwara between these swirls before any of them development. You guys should know I'm just kidding.

[Noles2006]

I think thats the MLC there appears to be a LLC with cloud movement coming in on all sides at 18 north/85.2 west. I think we may have a depression. It appears to be not moving at all.

I see exactly what you're talking about.

It's somewhat hard to see because of all of the high clouds... but I think you may be right.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

to be honest theres several "swirls" down there and in the poorly organized state that its in anyone of these could become a more dominant feature which could and would change the outcome totally so i for one will sit back and see what happens it sounds like we will have plenty of time to watch the developments to see what happens!

There appears based on visible to be one main LLC at 18/85.2. Of course I don't have NRL link so I can't have a 100 percent on the Lat in lon of this but nearly. But yes the air flow doe's shows there based on cloud movement.

[Wnghs2007]

Looking at the latest sat pics - I wouldn't be surpised if the new center is positioned farther east...there is a decent circulation now just SW of the Cayman islands. There is an "illusion" there is a center there that is drifting NE.

Thats a mid level vorticy that was spawned by the strong area of convection that formed on the eastern side of the broad area of low pressure to the North East of Rotan Island, Honduras.

Now that shear has sheared the thunderstorms complex off to the east ( which is also causing the thunderstorms to weaken because they are losing there forcing) the mid level vort is becoming more exposed by the cirrus clouds left over by the complex. Then the mid level vort will dissipate.

All of the complex's of storms are leaving small mesoscale boundaries which along with the forcing from the broad area of low pressure is allowing new storms to form along these boundaries, which may produce small mid level vorts like the one shown SW of Grand Cayman Island. Then the systems are sheared away from the low to the east and the process once again starts all over.

Like I said in an earlier post, it will take time for this system to get more organized. It has been getting somewhat better organized this morning... but it will take more time before it has enough organization...if at all....to be classified a tropical cyclone.

[Air Force Met]

Maybe an eye-like feature but not a real eye.

More like an area without thunderstorms.

[vbhoutex]

when i say eye, i mean a point in which the circulation center is, but not a eye wall.

There is a HUGE difference between an "eye" and the center of circulation. At this point we do not even have a definite LLC showing, so using the terminology of "eye" is way off!! If we had an "eye" we would be looking at a strong tropical storm at a minimum and more than likely a hurricane. Not chastising, just posting the difference. When posting about systems under development it is best to use the proper terminology imo.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Someone with good eyes tell me if the center is about 200 miles WSW of Grand Cayman.

[Noles2006]

Looking at the latest sat pics - I wouldn't be surpised if the new center is positioned farther east...there is a decent circulation now just SW of the Cayman islands. There is an "illusion" there is a center there that is drifting NE.

Thats a mid level vorticy that was spawned by the strong area of convection that formed on the eastern side of the broad area of low pressure to the North East of Rotan Island, Honduras.

Now that shear has sheared the thunderstorms complex off to the east ( which is also causing the thunderstorms to weaken because they are losing there forcing) the mid level vort is becoming more exposed by the cirrus clouds left over by the complex.

All of the complex's of storms are leaving small mesoscale boundaries which along with the forcing from the broad area of low pressure is allowing new storms to form along these boundaries, which may produce small mid level vorts like the one shown SW of Grand Cayman Island. Then the systems are sheared away from the low to the east and the process once again starts all over.

Like I said in an earlier post, it will take time for this system to get more organized. It has been getting somewhat better organized this morning... but it will take more time before it has enough organization...if at all....to be classified a tropical cyclone.

Yep, yep, yep and yep. This is definitely going to take some time to consolidate and develop into a significant tropical cyclone (i.e. TS). It may become a depression sooner than later, but further development will definitely take some time.

[shaggy]

to be honest theres several "swirls" down there and in the poorly organized state that its in anyone of these could become a more dominant feature which could and would change the outcome totally so i for one will sit back and see what happens it sounds like we will have plenty of time to watch the developments to see what happens!

There appears based on visible to be one main LLC at 18/85.2. Of course I don't have NRL link so I can't have a 100 percent on the Lat in lon of this but nearly. But yes the air flow doe's shows there based on cloud movement.

I wish the high clouds would die off for a few frames so we could get a view of the low level clouds to see what they are doing but with the obscured viewits almost impossible to tell where there MAY be a LLC if theres one at all!