Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[vbhoutex]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Someone with good eyes tell me if the center is about 200 miles WSW of Grand Cayman.

If anything in the way of a LLC is forming at this point it is right around 17.5-18.0N, 84.0-85.0W.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There appears to be a upper level high forming over the center of the system. Wind shear has droped 10 knots. You will also notice that the Gulf of Mexico shear has droped some.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[shaggy]

of note the 3 reporting stations on the caymen islands 2 of them have west winds and one has a south wind.Until this thing consolidates for sure its a wait and see game for now!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Someone with good eyes tell me if the center is about 200 miles WSW of Grand Cayman.

If anything in the way of a LLC is forming at this point it is right around 17.5-18.0N, 84.0-85.0W.

I agree...Look at the low level cloud motion there doe's appear to be one. But lets wait for the recon to confirm or disprove it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

If this thing developes will the shear above it help enchance development like Wilma?

[gatorcane]

BTW - South Florida is not out of the woods as I see this blob slowly inch ENE. IN fact if the center actually ends up establishing itself farther east than South Florida (SW Florida) could be in the cone.

[skysummit]

12z GFDL is almost right on with the 12z GFS...Florida Big Bend.

[tgenius]

boca-I don't think this will affect South FL.. regardless of what direction its going, I think the shear around FL is too high from the pics I've seen, so it would be probably ripped apart, albeit a lil bit. I think we would get some rain if it did though.

[Noles2006]

BTW - South Florida is not out of the woods as I see this blob slowly inch ENE. IN fact if the center actually ends up establishing itself farther east than South Florida (SW Florida) could be in the cone.

What you see drifting off to the ENE is not the LLC/main blob. The potentially developing LLC is not moving at all from what I can see.

[gatorcane]

lots of tracks take storms from the NW Caribbean through SW Florida....*lots* and *lots* if you look back at history.

South Florida's primary threat is from the South like where this system is.

[SouthFloridawx]

12z GFDL is almost right on with the 12z GFS...Florida Big Bend.

GFDL
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

GFS
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

CMC
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[Noles2006]

Ah... this is bringing back memories of past hurricane seasons, impatiently waiting for the next satellite image to come in so I can add it to the loop to see what's going on... The next few days are going to be so much fun... (as long as nothing blows the heck up).

[gatorcane]

BTW - South Florida is not out of the woods as I see this blob slowly inch ENE. IN fact if the center actually ends up establishing itself farther east than South Florida (SW Florida) could be in the cone.

What you see drifting off to the ENE is not the LLC/main blob. The potentially developing LLC is not moving at all from what I can see.

Look at the big picture though. A couple of days ago it was over the Yucatan and each day the whole mess is shifting farther east. South Florida should hope the LLC does not keep shifting as it has done also.

Go back in history and look at all of the tracks that wind up hitting South Florida from where this system is developing (due to a trough that comes in a shunts in ENE quickly this time of year - also the w coast of Florida and panhandle areas (Eastern GOM are at high risk based on climatology).

[KWT]

GFDL would probably equate of wind of about 100mph at the surface I'd guess at landfall if this run was right, certainly wouild be a problem though as it does make it a hurricane though I think its probably a little over the top in terms of strength.

[Noles2006]

BTW - South Florida is not out of the woods as I see this blob slowly inch ENE. IN fact if the center actually ends up establishing itself farther east than South Florida (SW Florida) could be in the cone.

What you see drifting off to the ENE is not the LLC/main blob. The potentially developing LLC is not moving at all from what I can see.

Look at the big picture though. A couple of days ago it was over the Yucatan and each day the whole mess is shifting farther east. South Florida should hope the LLC does not keep shifting as it has done also.

You guys are really overhyping this system, don't ya think? "South Florida should hope the LLC does not keep shifting"... umm, don't you guys need the rain? This is going to be nothing more than a nice, breezy rainmaker.

[no advance]

One thing GFS says it is ablockbuster N At. storm. Prey for surf.

[Wnghs2007]

This is the probable location of the Broad Area of Surface Low Pressure using the Global Hydrology and Climate Center Visible Sat Imagery.


http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v298/ ... AL6906.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can not believe some one would pay a 500 to a million dollars to live on the gulf just to get it destroyed by a hurricane. But thats just my option. My thinking is that it will be alot like Arlene last year. The upper level enviroment based on shear charts show a upper level high with decreasing wind shear. There also appears to be alot of div for air to rise into the Atmosphere. I would not say this is to unfaverable.

[gatorcane]

BTW - South Florida is not out of the woods as I see this blob slowly inch ENE. IN fact if the center actually ends up establishing itself farther east than South Florida (SW Florida) could be in the cone.

What you see drifting off to the ENE is not the LLC/main blob. The potentially developing LLC is not moving at all from what I can see.

Look at the big picture though. A couple of days ago it was over the Yucatan and each day the whole mess is shifting farther east. South Florida should hope the LLC does not keep shifting as it has done also.

You guys are really overhyping this system, don't ya think? "South Florida should hope the LLC does not keep shifting"... umm, don't you guys need the rain? This is going to be nothing more than a nice, breezy rainmaker.

Well I hope so but it looks quite menacing on Sat pics - we are actually okay on rain but Central Florida (especially the west coast) needs it so I hope they get a weak system with lots of rain up there

[Noles2006]

One thing GFS says it is ablockbuster N At. storm. Prey for surf.

Definitely, wow.