Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[Noles2006]

That CMC solution would probably give me some nice weather early next week.

[JamesFromMaine2]

GFDL has it at 104kts at landfall in Florida!

[gatorcane]

Based on my estimates - the "CDO" (from the sheared thunderstorm tops) will be blowing over South Florida later today and up through the peninsula over the weekend.

Those in South Florida can look at the skies to the south and see the high clouds moving in from our system.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The NHC will probably issue a "Tropical Distrubance Statement" tomorrow once recon get to the Invest.

[jlauderdal]

I can not believe some one would pay a 500 to a million dollars to live on the gulf just to get it destroyed by a hurricane. But thats just my option. My thinking is that it will be alot like Arlene last year. The upper level enviroment based on shear charts show a upper level high with decreasing wind shear. There also appears to be alot of div for air to rise into the Atmosphere. I would not say this is to unfaverable.

ok matt, nobody should build where there are hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires, etc.

[tgenius]

Based on my estimates - the "CDO" (from the sheared thunderstorm tops) will be blowing over South Florida later today and up through the peninsula over the weekend.

Those in South Florida can look at the skies to the south and see the high clouds moving in from our system.

boca-would that mean rain for us this weekend? I'm supposed to be going ring shopping tommorow morning.

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The NHC will probably issue a "Tropical Distrubance Statement" tomorrow once recon get to the Invest.

I am thinking later tonight or tomorrow AM

[benny]

Based on my estimates - the "CDO" (from the sheared thunderstorm tops) will be blowing over South Florida later today and up through the peninsula over the weekend.

CDO eh?? how about sheared off tstm tops only! you don't get CDOs in systems like this.. they are most of a hallmark when system are strong tropical storms thinking about becoming hurricanes..

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The NHC will probably issue a "Tropical Distrubance Statement" tomorrow once recon get to the Invest.

It looks nice!!!

[Noles2006]

GFDL has it at 104kts at landfall in Florida!

That's not at the surface, though, correct?

[gatorcane]

Based on my estimates - the "CDO" (from the sheared thunderstorm tops) will be blowing over South Florida later today and up through the peninsula over the weekend.

Those in South Florida can look at the skies to the south and see the high clouds moving in from our system.

boca-would that mean rain for us this weekend? I'm supposed to be going ring shopping tommorow morning.

Just imagine the current system farther north - look how much convection is well east of the LLC - where peninsula Florida would be. If it moves northward and not WNW, then Florida will have some good rains this weekend. Of course if it doesn't move much then maybe extreme Southern Florida will see some effects.

Looking at the sat pics the high clouds over central florida were pushing south and now they are moving back north - indicating that the storminess from this system should begin to wrap around the eastern side and start penetrating South Florida.

[Air Force Met]

GFDL has it at 104kts at landfall in Florida!

GFDL is on crack. Not a great start for the season. Maybe it will do better once it actually has a system to latch on to.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With that upper high forming over the system-> http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html and the super hot loop current if the shear keeps decreasing over the gulf might need to watch this carefully because this could become a hurricane if so. But on the other hand the dry air might keep it from doing so.

[HurricaneHunter914]

GFDL has it at 104kts at landfall in Florida!

That's not at the surface, though, correct?

True those aren't at surface. Since 104 kts are Cat-3 winds, lower the Cat by one. So they probably mean a Cat-2. But that's still scary.

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFDL has it at 104kts at landfall in Florida!

That's not at the surface, though, correct?

True those aren't at surface. Since 104 kts are Cat-3 winds, lower the Cat by one. So they probably mean a Cat-2. But that's still scary.

yeah, Frances was a Category 2, and I can still remember how miserable that 24-36 hour period of 45-55mph sustained winds and gusts to 70mph was in Orlando.

[gatorcane]

With that upper high forming over the system-> http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html and the super hot loop current if the shear keeps decreasing over the gulf might need to watch this carefully because this could become a hurricane if so. But on the other hand the dry air might keep it from doing so.

Matt - it's up to the dry air to stop this thing. SSTs and shear appear to be favorable for it in the eastern GOM and NW Caribbean. Do you agree?

Just because it is June doesn't mean that we can't see a hurricane - although climatologically it is not as likely as a T.S or depression.

[Air Force Met]

Just imagine the current system farther north - look how much convection is well east of the LLC - where peninsula Florida would be. If it moves northward and not WNW, then Florida will have some good rains this weekend. Of course if it doesn't move much then maybe extreme Southern Florida will see some effects.

Looking at the sat pics the high clouds over central florida were pushing south and now they are moving back north - indicating that the storminess from this system should begin to wrap around the eastern side and start penetrating South Florida.

I think this will form further east than where it is now. Looks to me like it will eventually consolidate closer to the Caymens eventually...probably sometime tomorrow or Sunday.

[boca]

Now when I look at the Western Caribbean sat I always think of what Wilma looked like down there. I have to get over it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is there any chance that this thing might just stall out in the Carrib. and sit there for a few days before heading N (and how would that change the track)?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I agree...But the gulf can change very fast in become unfaverable. The dry air and the fact that this has some work to do to change the atmosphere into a more supportive enviroment=the c storm of 2003 if you went to know what I'm talking about.