Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[SouthFloridawx]

How bout a possible center at 17.5 N 82.5 W ..(around that area)?

Anyone?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[max]

I go away for 10 minutes and y'all have almost filled up another 10-page thread.

Looks like a "swirl hunt" now.

wxman57 this weather forum is the best!

What do you think it will do ?

[terstorm1012]

104KT for GFDL

better have some of the best QG forcing I have ever seen, or else it is going to be horribly wrong yet again

Yeah...the best ET event in June ever.

I feel like I'm missing out on an inside joke

QG Forcing?

[gatorcane]

How bout a possible center at 17.5 N 82.5 W ..(around that area)?

Anyone?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

sure looks like it.

Air Force Met says it will probably relocate East around that area also....in my opinion, that that would put South Florida at more risk (landfall in SW Florida).

[mvtrucking]

I seemed to have lost my bookmark to these models. Does anyone have a link to the page with them? Much appreciated, in advance. Thanks.

MV

[HurricaneHunter914]

South Florida has had enough of its share of hurricanes.

[gatorcane]

How bout a possible center at 17.5 N 82.5 W ..(around that area)?

Anyone?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

sure looks like it.

Air Force Met says it will probably relocate East around that area also....in my opinion, that that would put South Florida at more risk (landfall in SW Florida).

There is always a chance it misses Florida all together and gets shunt NE into the Bahamas....I doubt it though

[Extremeweatherguy]

To the pro mets:

Is there 'any' chance at all that this could still wind up in the western Gulf? Even a slight chance?

[hurricanedude]

Southern New England....HAHA...just havent seen it yet...so thought i would just get it done with

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

So many multiple centers which one to choose.

[drezee]

104KT for GFDL

better have some of the best QG forcing I have ever seen, or else it is going to be horribly wrong yet again

Yeah...the best ET event in June ever.

I feel like I'm missing out on an inside joke

QG Forcing?

For the newbies, QG means quasigeostrophic (QG)
The forcing of vertical motion is given by the divergence of Q-Vector.

I can only imagine he means Extra-Tropical, as QG forcing is commonly used to calculate the latent heat release in the extratropical transition.

[boca]

Where's AFM forecast about center relocating further east Boca_Chris.

[gatorcane]

Just imagine the current system farther north - look how much convection is well east of the LLC - where peninsula Florida would be. If it moves northward and not WNW, then Florida will have some good rains this weekend. Of course if it doesn't move much then maybe extreme Southern Florida will see some effects.

Looking at the sat pics the high clouds over central florida were pushing south and now they are moving back north - indicating that the storminess from this system should begin to wrap around the eastern side and start penetrating South Florida.

I think this will form further east than where it is now. Looks to me like it will eventually consolidate closer to the Caymens eventually...probably sometime tomorrow or Sunday.

Here is what Air Force Met says. IMHO that would put even South Florida at risk.

[drezee]

713
WHXX01 KWBC 091853
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060609 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060609 1800 060610 0600 060610 1800 060611 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 85.0W 19.3N 85.6W 21.2N 86.8W 23.2N 87.8W
BAMM 18.0N 85.0W 19.2N 85.8W 20.6N 87.1W 22.2N 88.3W
A98E 18.0N 85.0W 18.2N 85.7W 19.0N 85.7W 19.2N 85.8W
LBAR 18.0N 85.0W 18.8N 85.5W 20.4N 86.6W 22.4N 87.6W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060611 1800 060612 1800 060613 1800 060614 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.1N 88.5W 27.6N 87.5W 28.5N 84.1W 31.9N 79.2W
BAMM 23.8N 89.2W 25.4N 89.6W 24.4N 89.1W 25.3N 86.2W
A98E 20.1N 85.8W 21.4N 85.0W 23.3N 82.5W 27.0N 78.6W
LBAR 24.5N 88.0W 27.1N 85.9W 28.7N 81.1W 33.9N 74.3W
SHIP 46KTS 51KTS 50KTS 45KTS
DSHP 41KTS 46KTS 45KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 85.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 87.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[x-y-no]

I feel like I'm missing out on an inside joke

QG Forcing?

Quasi-geostrophic forcing. It's vertical forcing due to either low-level convergence or high-level divergence. Frequently plays a part in cyclogenesis.

[CHRISTY]

Hey guys i was just watching the tropical update on the weather channel and vivian brown said what ever forms in the caribbean will likely move either NE or ENE into florida.there's were her words.

[gatorcane]

Hey guys i was just watching the tropical update on the weather channel and vivian brown said what ever forms in the caribbean will likely move either NE or ENE into florida.there's were her words.

Christy that wouldn't surprise me - somehow now I think it has South Florida written all over it - happens so many times in history. Also Tampa seems to have some kind of shield protecting it so it can't hit there....

[Derek Ortt]

QG forcing applies for baroclinic processes (cold air advection behind the large trough in the GOM and warm air ahead, etc)

The ONLY chance at the GFDL has of verifying is for this to belike Michael

[skysummit]

Hey guys i was just watching the tropical update on the weather channel and vivian brown said what ever forms in the caribbean will likely move either NE or ENE into florida.there's were her words.

That's nothing special....she's just following the models. (or....someone else who's looking at the models told her what to say )

[Air Force Met]

To the pro mets:

Is there 'any' chance at all that this could still wind up in the western Gulf? Even a slight chance?

There is always a slight chance...but it would have to miss the trof and that would mean it hanging around for a week in the NWCAR. So...I doubt it.