Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

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terstorm1012
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#181 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:02 pm

thanks dreeze and xyno.
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#182 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:02 pm

Image

18:00z models graphic.
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#183 Postby drezee » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:02 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:QG forcing applies for baroclinic processes (cold air advection behind the large trough in the GOM and warm air ahead, etc)

The ONLY chance at the GFDL has of verifying is for this to belike Michael


An example of a system benefiting from QG forcing last year would be Wilma as it passed FL.
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#184 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:03 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:To the pro mets:

Is there 'any' chance at all that this could still wind up in the western Gulf? Even a slight chance?


There is always a slight chance...but it would have to miss the trof and that would mean it hanging around for a week in the NWCAR. So...I doubt it.


Air Force Met I have some growing concern about a track through South Florida now - if the center is determined to be near the Caymans....what is your take on South Florida - a TS would be bad here considering we are still recovering from last year (Wilma and Katrina)
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#185 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:04 pm

I still think that the main low will be the one developing around 18/85, exactly where the models have initialized.
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#186 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:05 pm

well i can say i evacuated without being sure :lol:
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#187 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image

18:00z models graphic.


The problem is if that low is initialized near the caymans as some now are thinking that would be right through South Florida (similar to a Wilma track)....boy it's getting suspenseful!
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#188 Postby Opal storm » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:06 pm

Looking better for the north/central Gulf coast according to the models.
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#189 Postby boca » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:06 pm

I'm not ready for this yet. The models keep on trending east.
Last edited by boca on Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Finally someone tells it like it is

#190 Postby robbielyn » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:08 pm

Also Tampa seems to have some kind of shield protecting it so it can't hit there....


I said Amen when I saw that quote. That is why I live near there. It's hard to get hit with anything but a brush of a hurricane or a ts. Well the good thing is we should see some rain. We need it real bad. :idea:
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#191 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:08 pm

ugh, this is crazy :eek:
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#192 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:08 pm

My gas generator installation is almost ready!!!
Last edited by HURAKAN on Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#193 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:08 pm

Regarding these model plots ...

The BAMs are clueless about interaction with a trough, and the LBAR ain't much better.

I'd stick with looking at the globals for hints what the track of any system we get would be. And so far, I don't think the globals have much of a handle on where this thing would form if it does. Tonights 0z runs might be more meaningful ...
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#194 Postby boca » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:09 pm

Ivanhater welcome back to storm haven.
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#195 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:11 pm

Opal storm wrote:Looking better for the north/central Gulf coast according to the models.
yes, unless the UKMET track plays out.
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#196 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:12 pm

Looking at the latest visible loops, the swirliness to the NE of the NHC center appears to be a mid-level center...you can see "below" the swirling layer and see that the low level clouds are NOT circulating around this center, but are continuing to circulate around the center to the SW.
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#197 Postby gtalum » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:13 pm

Is "swirliness" a technical term? :lol: ;) Just teasin....
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#198 Postby BigA » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:13 pm

After looking at the "water of 10,000 swirls," it appears that the main swirl is located about 17.5 N, 82.5 W, near the small, circular, purple/red blowup of convection on the most recent infrared http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

I am, however, no expert, so this is merely my best idea of what might be happening.
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#199 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:13 pm

boca_chris wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Image

18:00z models graphic.


The problem is if that low is initialized near the caymans as some now are thinking that would be right through South Florida (similar to a Wilma track)....boy it's getting suspenseful!


If you think this suspenseful just wait until the REAL storms hit the Gulf in August,September and October. I would take whatever comes of this over anything you would get in those months.
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#200 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:14 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:To the pro mets:

Is there 'any' chance at all that this could still wind up in the western Gulf? Even a slight chance?


There is always a slight chance...but it would have to miss the trof and that would mean it hanging around for a week in the NWCAR. So...I doubt it.


Air Force Met I have some growing concern about a track through South Florida now - if the center is determined to be near the Caymans....what is your take on South Florida - a TS would be bad here considering we are still recovering from last year (Wilma and Katrina)


I think SFLO is not out of the woods...especially if it forms further east. However...rain and a mod/strong. TS is all I would expect....unless the upper level winds change significantly.
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