Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7
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- terstorm1012
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- cycloneye
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18:00z models graphic.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Derek Ortt wrote:QG forcing applies for baroclinic processes (cold air advection behind the large trough in the GOM and warm air ahead, etc)
The ONLY chance at the GFDL has of verifying is for this to belike Michael
An example of a system benefiting from QG forcing last year would be Wilma as it passed FL.
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- gatorcane
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Air Force Met wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:To the pro mets:
Is there 'any' chance at all that this could still wind up in the western Gulf? Even a slight chance?
There is always a slight chance...but it would have to miss the trof and that would mean it hanging around for a week in the NWCAR. So...I doubt it.
Air Force Met I have some growing concern about a track through South Florida now - if the center is determined to be near the Caymans....what is your take on South Florida - a TS would be bad here considering we are still recovering from last year (Wilma and Katrina)
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Finally someone tells it like it is
Also Tampa seems to have some kind of shield protecting it so it can't hit there....
I said Amen when I saw that quote. That is why I live near there. It's hard to get hit with anything but a brush of a hurricane or a ts. Well the good thing is we should see some rain. We need it real bad.
I said Amen when I saw that quote. That is why I live near there. It's hard to get hit with anything but a brush of a hurricane or a ts. Well the good thing is we should see some rain. We need it real bad.

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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.

- x-y-no
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Regarding these model plots ...
The BAMs are clueless about interaction with a trough, and the LBAR ain't much better.
I'd stick with looking at the globals for hints what the track of any system we get would be. And so far, I don't think the globals have much of a handle on where this thing would form if it does. Tonights 0z runs might be more meaningful ...
The BAMs are clueless about interaction with a trough, and the LBAR ain't much better.
I'd stick with looking at the globals for hints what the track of any system we get would be. And so far, I don't think the globals have much of a handle on where this thing would form if it does. Tonights 0z runs might be more meaningful ...
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- Extremeweatherguy
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After looking at the "water of 10,000 swirls," it appears that the main swirl is located about 17.5 N, 82.5 W, near the small, circular, purple/red blowup of convection on the most recent infrared http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
I am, however, no expert, so this is merely my best idea of what might be happening.
I am, however, no expert, so this is merely my best idea of what might be happening.
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boca_chris wrote:cycloneye wrote:
18:00z models graphic.
The problem is if that low is initialized near the caymans as some now are thinking that would be right through South Florida (similar to a Wilma track)....boy it's getting suspenseful!
If you think this suspenseful just wait until the REAL storms hit the Gulf in August,September and October. I would take whatever comes of this over anything you would get in those months.
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boca_chris wrote:Air Force Met wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:To the pro mets:
Is there 'any' chance at all that this could still wind up in the western Gulf? Even a slight chance?
There is always a slight chance...but it would have to miss the trof and that would mean it hanging around for a week in the NWCAR. So...I doubt it.
Air Force Met I have some growing concern about a track through South Florida now - if the center is determined to be near the Caymans....what is your take on South Florida - a TS would be bad here considering we are still recovering from last year (Wilma and Katrina)
I think SFLO is not out of the woods...especially if it forms further east. However...rain and a mod/strong. TS is all I would expect....unless the upper level winds change significantly.
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