Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[HURAKAN]

I really doubt we are going to see anything more than a strong t.s/weak hurricane (if that) due to the shear.If this was already a T.D then yes,proabaly a hurricane but it's still just a sheared blob.I think we'll see a 50-60mph T.S at landfall.

Do you want more?!?!?!?

[CHRISTY]

Christy did it work for ya.

yep just worked thanks.

[gatorcane]

Based on the last visible loop I'm looking at - it really looks like the center has shifted more ENE near the Caymans. What do you all think? Look at the spin just left of Grande Cayman

Also the who blob seems to be inching NE towards Western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula. Wouldn't be surprised if NWS Miami starts talking about it now and increasing the POPS for South Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Derek Ortt]

also, another good example of a QC storm is Charley, but this I dont think has the necessary dynamics for that. Maybe a cat 1 at the most

[DESTRUCTION5]

also, another good example of a QC storm is Charley, but this I dont think has the necessary dynamics for that. Maybe a cat 1 at the most

Ortt With My Limited Experience I Can't see this making landfall West of Tampa can you? Look like a SFL to East of FL event now?

[x-y-no]

Here's a hint for posts...If your post has the words "I think," your post should also have the word "because"...If everyone will try this, this board will be a lot more informative.

Example...I think the GFDL is onto something, because the shear in the Gulf is already decreasing rapidly.

Instead of...I think the GDFL is on crack! There aint no way this is gonna pan out!!

Fair enough.

The reason I think the GFDL won't verify is because even though the shortwave trough will be lifting out ahead of the system, even the flatter jet we should have in a few days will be intruding on the northern gulf. Just look at where the jet has been located in recent zonal flow configurations. It might lift a little further north, but not much.

The reason I think we'd have a better chance of intensification if the storm moves slower and tracks further southeast is because upper air conditions in the NW Caribbean continue to improve, so if the system lingers an extra day in that area it'll have more time to get properly stacked before taking off NE.

The reason I think it's more likely to be a central or even northern Florida issue is because the 12z GFS run looks plausible to me. The initialization was better than this morning's runs, and for once it seems to be doing a decent job on the likely strength of the ridging. I'll reserve judgement on this issue until at least tonight's 0z runs are out, however, because it might be clearer by then where an LLC will form (if it does).

Jan

[gatorcane]

also, another good example of a QC storm is Charley, but this I dont think has the necessary dynamics for that. Maybe a cat 1 at the most

Ortt With My Limited Experience I Can't see this making landfall West of Tampa can you? Look like a SFL to East of FL event now?

It certainly looks like it could miss South Florida all together to the east...

[Steve]

>>sed on the last visible loop I'm looking at - it really looks like the center has shifted more ENE near the Caymans. What do you all think? Look at the spin just left of Grande Cayman

I think the center (or "a" center) is just east of where the new convection is blowing up off the Nicaraguan Coast (maybe 150-200 miles or so).

Anyway, I'm wondering who's going to be saying the CMC is on crack and is notorious for spinning up spurious lows.

Otherwise, the 12z's, only the UKMet seems to be an outlier now. I haven't looked at the low-level models to see what they're doing.

Steve

[x-y-no]

Derek: an off-topic question ...

Will RSMAS be posting the MM5 runs on the net again this year?

[Steve]

>>rtt With My Limited Experience I Can't see this making landfall West of Tampa can you? Look like a SFL to East of FL event now?

What's west of Tampa, Clearwater?

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

not sure about the MM5... stay tuned (there is no RAINEX field program this year)

this is not missing Florida to the south, no chance. Florida is the likely target of this

[gatorcane]

not sure about the MM5... stay tuned (there is no RAINEX field program this year)

this is not missing Florida to the south, no chance. Florida is the likely target of this

Derek what about a South Florida hit? I think it might be possible now...

[max]

not sure about the MM5... stay tuned (there is no RAINEX field program this year)

this is not missing Florida to the south, no chance. Florida is the likely target of this

Is it because you live in Fl. ?

[JonathanBelles]

>>rtt With My Limited Experience I Can't see this making landfall West of Tampa can you? Look like a SFL to East of FL event now?

What's west of Tampa, Clearwater?

Steve

[gatorcane]

not sure about the MM5... stay tuned (there is no RAINEX field program this year)

this is not missing Florida to the south, no chance. Florida is the likely target of this

Is it because you live in Fl. ?

Derek is usually right though

[max]

not sure about the MM5... stay tuned (there is no RAINEX field program this year)

this is not missing Florida to the south, no chance. Florida is the likely target of this

Is it because you live in Fl. ?

Derek is usually right though

Keyword usually.

Mother nature can do whatever she wants.

[Derek Ortt]

no concern about S Fla... only rain for our region the way things look now

[DESTRUCTION5]

>>rtt With My Limited Experience I Can't see this making landfall West of Tampa can you? Look like a SFL to East of FL event now?

What's west of Tampa, Clearwater?

Steve

All points westfrom Mexico to Ceder Key...

[Scorpion]

I don't think South Florida has anything to worry about this. This is and will be a Big Bend or Panhandle storm. I don't know of many storms that have had October-like tracks into SFL in June.

[Opal storm]

I think this is definitely a Peninsula storm now.Honestly I am no longer that concerned about this here in Pensacola unless the models make a dramatic shift west but they've been shifting east,not west.