Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

#341 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:04 pm

yippe

#342 Postby **GulfHills** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:04 pm

Noles2006 wrote:Haha, Crazy, thanks! That would bring it right to my front door!

LOL....I'm in Tallahassee too, but they always seem to miss us.

Bgator · #343 Postby **Bgator** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:04 pm

CHRISTY wrote:guys greg setzer from channel 4 just said the low level center continues to shift east and that might have implications for southflorida in the long run.

Depending on how far east i think things can change, for now though C. FLa looks good to me...Me here in Miami can use some rain though! Ill take lots of rain!

#344 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:04 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

:uarrow:

They haved just issued this prior step before TD status.A text about it is still not available but as soon it is I will post it.

Noles2006 · #345 Postby **Noles2006** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:05 pm

There is no defined LLC... yet.

Cape Verde · #346 Postby **Cape Verde** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:06 pm

skysummit wrote:Here's an updated model plot including the 18z NAM.

Is it just me, or what the heck is the NAM model? I don't remember it from previous years.

#347 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:07 pm

what does the TS Formation Alert mean? is it issued by the NHC?

Hurricaneman · #348 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:08 pm

yes it is and that means they expect a td in the next 24 hours

Rainband · #349 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

They haved just issued this prior step before TD status.A text about it is still not available but as soon it is I will post it.

Looks like as forecast, moving nnw. This would has the big bend all over it at this point.

#350 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:09 pm

Cape Verde wrote:
skysummit wrote:Here's an updated model plot including the 18z NAM.

Is it just me, or what the heck is the NAM model? I don't remember it from previous years.

The NAM is not too good of a tropical forecast model. I just add it for the heck of it. It did see this low developing a few days ago though so I do give it some credit.

#351 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:10 pm

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 091801Z JUN 06//
WTNT 21 KNGU 091801
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9N 84.9W TO 21.8N 86.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 091201Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 85.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 00
KNOTS.
2. A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
CENTERED NEAR 18.0N9 85.5W8. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FORMATION ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND HAS BEEN EXHIBITING INCREASED CIRCULATION, CONVECTION,
AND WINDSPEED UP TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. GFDL FORECAST SYSTEM
MOVEMENT NORTHWARD THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ANALYZED
FROM BOUY DATA TO BE 83F(28C).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 101801Z.

Here is the text.

canegrl04 · #352 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:11 pm

This is incredible!I honestly did not think we would see our first storm formation untill July. :eek:

Will Alberto arrive sooner than last year's first storm?

#353 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:12 pm

can my question on how you make your own personal forecast graphic be answered please?

CHRISTY · #354 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:12 pm

i think the LLC is forming near were the new thunderstorms are fireing up.

weatherwindow · #355 Postby **weatherwindow** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:13 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:what does the TS Formation Alert mean? is it issued by the NHC?

....issued by the navy...navlmoc....defines an area normally encompassing the incipient center and its projected motion over the next 24 hours...stating that a trop cylone may form in this area in the next 24 hours....after the 24 hour period, it is either allowed to expire, extended or replaced by advisories on the newly formed system....rich

#356 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:14 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:can my question on how you make your own personal forecast graphic be answered please?

Get the maps here. They are the only ones you can use for your own predictions.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85252

Cape Verde · #357 Postby **Cape Verde** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:15 pm

skysummit wrote:
The NAM is not too good of a tropical forecast model. I just add it for the heck of it. It did see this low developing a few days ago though so I do give it some credit.

Okay. More information is always better than less.

But a model track that sends a storm crashing into the high over Texas has some limitations. :wink:

#358 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:16 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:can my question on how you make your own personal forecast graphic be answered please?

Here ya go...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85252

Then save the pic on your computer and use a phot editor to design yours.

Then save it, and upload to imageshack.us and link the forums to it.

southerngale · #359 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:16 pm

canegrl04 wrote:This is incredible!I honestly did not think we would see our first storm formation untill July. Will Alberto arrive sooner than last year's first storm?

Nope. Arlene formed at the 8am edt advisory last year on June 9th.

fingers958 · #360 Postby **fingers958** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:16 pm

Is a system really "moving" nnw if it is going "00" knots?

Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

trop cyclone alert

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