Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[gatorcane]

it's moving northward....where will it make that all important turn?

[Evil Jeremy]

also, if this system forms today, would it set the record for the first time that the first storms of two seasons in a row formed on the same day? (Arlene on June 9, 2005 and Alberto on Today)

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092116
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A CIRCULATION HAS FORMED BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[canegrl04]

"Nope.Arlene formed at the 8am edt advisory last year on June 9th"

Alberto looks like he will come with a couple of days of Arlene

[Cyclenall]

I knew a TC Formation alert would be posted a 5 pm! Now, get ready for the TD forming within the next 3 hours or so! oh man the season is about to start! (not good for some people I beileve).

[wx247]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A CIRCULATION HAS FORMED BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[CHRISTY]

it's moving northward....where will it make that all important turn?

yes boca i will be watching for that turn also.....i will all be about timeing.

[gatorcane]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A CIRCULATION HAS FORMED BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Where is the center? Just SW of the Cayman islands where the blow of thunderstorms is?

[CHRISTY]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A CIRCULATION HAS FORMED BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

wow serious talk now from MR AVILA!get ready guys.

[cycloneye]

No need to post the Tropical Weather outlook at this thread as there is a thread for that product.

[gatorcane]

Notice it says SE GOM which means the SW coast of Florida needs to watch this thing.

[Dean4Storms]

Check out buoy 42056, the last hour went from nearly calm easterly winds to much stronger winds from the north in one hour. Due to the est. position of the developing low, this buoy is due north by approx. 75 miles or so.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[CHRISTY]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A CIRCULATION HAS FORMED BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Where is the center? Just SW of the Cayman islands where the blow of thunderstorms is?

boca i think its trying to form near were the thunderstorms are explodeing.

[wx247]

No need to post the Tropical Weather outlook at this thread as there is a thread for that product.

I saw that after posting it here. I find posting it here makes more sense because having two different threads on the same system is bizarre, but I won't post it here anymore. Sorry!

[Cyclenall]

This is incredible!I honestly did not think we would see our first storm formation untill July. Will Alberto arrive sooner than last year's first storm?

I forgot to say this in my welcome topic but I think we will see a early start to the season like last year. This event means that I could be right. Some people were think a late start to the season like 2004 but I can't see that happening.

[Evil Jeremy]

here we go again...

[gatorcane]

Winds across South Florida have picked up drastically today in response to our developing system with avg winds out of the South at 15-20 mph (pressure gradient is now starting to tighten)

NAPLES MOSUNNY 88 72 58 S15 29.89R
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 85 72 65 S16 29.90F
FT LAUDER-EXEC PTSUNNY 86 68 54 S12 29.89S
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 87 70 56 S16G23 29.89S
POMPANO BEACH PTSUNNY 84 72 67 S18G26 29.89F
PEMBROKE PINES MOSUNNY 84 71 65 S12 29.91S
OPA LOCKA PTSUNNY 85 70 60 S15 29.91R
MIAMI MOSUNNY 85 69 58 S13 29.91S
MIAMI BEACH N/A 84 74 70 S17 29.88F
WEST KENDALL RAIN 81 74 79 CALM 29.91S
HOMESTEAD PTSUNNY 82 73 74 S10 29.91F

[jasons2k]

That's 5X of the same outlook on one page, no wonder the page count is getting so out of control. I really wish we'd all read Southerngale's post.....and people would strip out stuff that's not needed before posting a reply.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I'm back! woohoo, looks like the fun begins early again!

-much more prepped for this season!

[Aquawind]

I want my mommie...