Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[PTrackerLA]

Thanks to this system we'll be on the subsident side now and what once looked like a decent chance of rain all of next week has turned into continued hot and dry conditions. We can't win over here!

[gatorcane]

what does "signicant" tropical cyclone mean? Like a CAT 3+?

[Brent]

what does "signicant" tropical cyclone mean? Like a CAT 3+?

I'm pretty sure that is said everytime a formation alert is issued.

[P.K.]

what does "signicant" tropical cyclone mean? Like a CAT 3+?

Tropical Depression or greater.

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTAE 091820
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.SYNOPSIS...

[color=black]MOST LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING AROUND 300 MILES EAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ACTUALLY...ITS CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTERACTION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT DESPITE
PROXIMITY TO LAND...THIS SYSTEM SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FURTHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT IS
PROJECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD THEN TURNS GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY GROW INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS STILL DIVERGENT ON
EVENTUAL PATH BUT ALL AT LEAST SHOW SOME INCREASE IN LOCAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE
ARRIVING BY EARLY MONDAY. STILL...THERE ARE LARGE TIMING AND
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AND THE FACT THAT DEVELOPMENT HAS YET TO OCCUR
ALL MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY FORECAST SYSTEM'S FUTURE.
THE GFS...CANADIAN MODEL...AND GFDL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF TAKES A WEAKER-LOOKING
SYSTEM SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...AND THE UKMET TAKES A TROUGH
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD.[/color]&&

[senorpepr]

what does the TS Formation Alert mean? is it issued by the NHC?

yes it is and that means they expect a td in the next 24 hours

Whoa...!

TCFA's are NOT issued by the NHC. They are issued by the JTWC or Norfork NAS (for systems in the Atlantic).

TCFA's are only issued when certain criteria are met. See http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm

[rockyman]

Yes...significant is always used with TCFA...nothing special about it.

[Opal storm]

what does "signicant" tropical cyclone mean? Like a CAT 3+?

You're joking,right?The way this thing is looking I will be surprised if a hurricane comes out of this.

[Trader Ron]

what does "signicant" tropical cyclone mean? Like a CAT 3+?

I'm pretty sure that is said everytime a formation alert is issued.

Sounds like hurricane to me. But i'll leave that to the Pro-Mets.

[robbielyn]

look at the time that info was posted in ruskin. It's 4 hours old and alot has happened in those four hours. So they are not being conservative as all the tampa news stations are calling for a ts to ride the periphery of the high into the big bend come mon or tues. It will be less conservative when they put out their new forecast

[senorpepr]

Subj / Tropical Formation Alert:

Formation of a Significant Tropical Cyclone is POSSIBLE....hmmmmm

I think the more significant word is [ironically] "Significant."

You are looking too far into it. Significant is used for any tropical cyclone. This includes a tropical depression.

[Cape Verde]

what does "signicant" tropical cyclone mean? Like a CAT 3+?

A tropical depression would not be "significant" by itself. We had several of them last year that pooped out.

Maybe somebody else has a better definition, but I'd say a TD bordering on becoming a named storm would be "significant."

[rockyman]

what does "signicant" tropical cyclone mean? Like a CAT 3+?

I'm pretty sure that is said everytime a formation alert is issued.

Sounds like hurricane to me. But i'll leave that to the Pro-Mets.

Significant does NOT mean hurricane or Cat 3 or even tropical storm.

Please read the "scoring system" here:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm

[Aquawind]

You are looking too far into it. Significant is used for any tropical cyclone. This includes a tropical depression.

aHHhhh... I love the smell of reality.. Thanks Mike!

[Swimdude]

Subj / Tropical Formation Alert:

Formation of a Significant Tropical Cyclone is POSSIBLE....hmmmmm

I think the more significant word is [ironically] "Significant."

You are looking too far into it. Significant is used for any tropical cyclone. This includes a tropical depression.

Goodness, i'm sorry. I've only had about 7 people tell me i'm incorrect in the last 20 posts.

[cycloneye]

They use the word "Significant" all the time they issue these Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts.But dont read into that word something that may be a very strong system like a hurricane cat 1 or stronger.

[gatorcane]

okay thanks for the clarification

[Cyclenall]

what does "signicant" tropical cyclone mean? Like a CAT 3+?

You're joking,right?The way this thing is looking I will be surprised if a hurricane comes out of this.

A hurricane could come out of this if it goes over a loop current and the shear is almost 0 knots. Moist Air will help as well. I would not be surprised if a hurricane came out before all is said and done. However, if it became a CAT3 then i'm going to freak out (0.2% of happening currenty)

[robbielyn]

Significant means something worth looking into. If it wasn't significant then that would mean that it amounts to nothing worth looking at.

[tgenius]

Subj / Tropical Formation Alert:

Formation of a Significant Tropical Cyclone is POSSIBLE....hmmmmm

I think the more significant word is [ironically] "Significant."

You are looking too far into it. Significant is used for any tropical cyclone. This includes a tropical depression.

Goodness, i'm sorry. I've only had about 7 people tell me i'm incorrect in the last 20 posts.

Didn't you get the memo about your TPS reports? I couldn't resist.