Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[gatorcane]

It always seems the early season storms models take into Ceder Key.

I wanna see a major hurricane hit Tampa. It always seems imposible to get one into tampa.

Chances one hits tampa are about the chances I will ever score with Katharine Mcphee!

Troll alert!!!

[CHRISTY]

I do see evidence of a very weak LLC to the west of the Cayman Islands. but winds around it are only in the 10-15 kt range. Not consolidated enough or strong enough to warrant a TD. But I suspect it'll be upgraded to TD 1 tomorrow and TS Alberto by Sunday. I certainly wouldn't rule out a south Florida crossing or even Florida Straights. It's forming so far east that it may begin turning NE-ENE as it crosses Cuba. There are some fairly strong WSW winds across the SE Gulf.

Here's a new GARP image with sfc plots.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto6.gif

WxMan I have been telling everybody all along DO NOT rule out South Florida - now they will listen since you are a pro met !

wow to hear wxman57 say that then iam really gonna watch this.

[Recurve]

I do see evidence of a very weak LLC to the west of the Cayman Islands. but winds around it are only in the 10-15 kt range. Not consolidated enough or strong enough to warrant a TD. But I suspect it'll be upgraded to TD 1 tomorrow and TS Alberto by Sunday. I certainly wouldn't rule out a south Florida crossing or even Florida Straights. It's forming so far east that it may begin turning NE-ENE as it crosses Cuba. There are some fairly strong WSW winds across the SE Gulf.

Here's a new GARP image with sfc plots.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto6.gif

Thanks wxman, that I'll certainly pay attention to.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the center is materializing just SW of the Cayman Islands - in that case a track through SW Florida is more likely.

The low is further WSW tracking slowly north, don't be fooled by sheared off mid to upper level circs.

[gatorcane]

I do see evidence of a very weak LLC to the west of the Cayman Islands. but winds around it are only in the 10-15 kt range. Not consolidated enough or strong enough to warrant a TD. But I suspect it'll be upgraded to TD 1 tomorrow and TS Alberto by Sunday. I certainly wouldn't rule out a south Florida crossing or even Florida Straights. It's forming so far east that it may begin turning NE-ENE as it crosses Cuba. There are some fairly strong WSW winds across the SE Gulf.

Here's a new GARP image with sfc plots.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto6.gif

Thanks wxman, that I'll certainly pay attention to.

Everybody from The Florida Keys to the Panhandle of Florida should start to prepare - lets hope it is just a weak system with lots of rain

[JPmia]

It always seems the early season storms models take into Ceder Key.

I wanna see a major hurricane hit Tampa. It always seems imposible to get one into tampa.

Chances one hits tampa are about the chances I will ever score with Katharine Mcphee!

Ok, well all you "W" obsessed can have a good time with this one. LOL

[gatorcane]

I think the center is materializing just SW of the Cayman Islands - in that case a track through SW Florida is more likely.

The low is further WSW tracking slowly north, don't be fooled by sheared off mid to upper level circs.

WxMan just said there is evidence of a center forming there - even the winds are suggesting it now..

[Rainband]

I do see evidence of a very weak LLC to the west of the Cayman Islands. but winds around it are only in the 10-15 kt range. Not consolidated enough or strong enough to warrant a TD. But I suspect it'll be upgraded to TD 1 tomorrow and TS Alberto by Sunday. I certainly wouldn't rule out a south Florida crossing or even Florida Straights. It's forming so far east that it may begin turning NE-ENE as it crosses Cuba. There are some fairly strong WSW winds across the SE Gulf.

Here's a new GARP image with sfc plots.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto6.gif

I guess the models will shift then, if your right.

[ericinmia]

Anyone got the latest spaghetti model maps?

[Rainband]

I do see evidence of a very weak LLC to the west of the Cayman Islands. but winds around it are only in the 10-15 kt range. Not consolidated enough or strong enough to warrant a TD. But I suspect it'll be upgraded to TD 1 tomorrow and TS Alberto by Sunday. I certainly wouldn't rule out a south Florida crossing or even Florida Straights. It's forming so far east that it may begin turning NE-ENE as it crosses Cuba. There are some fairly strong WSW winds across the SE Gulf.

Here's a new GARP image with sfc plots.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto6.gif

WxMan I have been telling everybody all along DO NOT rule out South Florida - now they will listen since you are a pro met !

wow to hear wxman57 say that then iam really gonna watch this.

Like you wouldn't have anyway

[CHRISTY]

I think the center is materializing just SW of the Cayman Islands - in that case a track through SW Florida is more likely.

The low is further WSW tracking slowly north, don't be fooled by sheared off mid to upper level circs.

WxMan just said there is evidence of a center forming there - even the winds are suggesting it now..

something most be happening that wxman57 is sayin it might come threw sw florida.

[gatorcane]

I do see evidence of a very weak LLC to the west of the Cayman Islands. but winds around it are only in the 10-15 kt range. Not consolidated enough or strong enough to warrant a TD. But I suspect it'll be upgraded to TD 1 tomorrow and TS Alberto by Sunday. I certainly wouldn't rule out a south Florida crossing or even Florida Straights. It's forming so far east that it may begin turning NE-ENE as it crosses Cuba. There are some fairly strong WSW winds across the SE Gulf.

Here's a new GARP image with sfc plots.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto6.gif

WxMan I have been telling everybody all along DO NOT rule out South Florida - now they will listen since you are a pro met !

wow to hear wxman57 say that then iam really gonna watch this.

Like you wouldn't have anyway

Paul that was funny (Christy no offense). We love watching these things no matter where they are in the Atlantic Basin!

[wxman57]

One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east.

[Rainband]

One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east.

that would go against climatology but after the past two years anything is possible. I will be interested to see who is right after this is all said and done. I am taking notes