Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[gatorcane]

Sorry didn't mean to post this here but it is the IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Scorpion]

One thing I have to give credit to now is the WRF/NAM which called development in this area over 5 days ago.

[whereverwx]

Nice forecast though

Thanks; I really don't know what to think as of yet, and until it has a definite center, it's a pin the tail on the donkey sort of thing.

[wzrgirl1]

[quote="boca_chris"]I think we are starting to see the shear lessen considerably and the outflow engine is starting to get going. Do you see it folks or am I nuts?
The shear is still strong on the northern side of the system but the southern side and center have little shear now.[/quot

yes I see it and yes you are nuts..........just kidding......I know you are excited.........so am I

[MGC]

Looking at the satellite loops, it appears to me that the center of the low is beween the Cayman Islands and Belize. I don't think the area of convection towars the Cayman Islands is the center of the low. My thinking is that if a TD forms it will track to the north then NE. The west coast of Florida should pay particular attention to this system.....MGC

[ericinmia]

One thing I have to give credit to now is the WRF/NAM which called development in this area over 5 days ago.

Yup... and the CNC also to a degree.

Sort of some retribution for those models. Like Bastardi said... The models were picking up on the trof split, and the high amount of latent heat. Whether they were off by a few days or not they still said it was going to eventually happen.
-Eric

[gatorcane]

Looking at the satellite loops, it appears to me that the center of the low is beween the Cayman Islands and Belize. I don't think the area of convection towars the Cayman Islands is the center of the low. My thinking is that if a TD forms it will track to the north then NE. The west coast of Florida should pay particular attention to this system.....MGC

One thing I am noticing also is that it is finally trying to seperate itself from the trough. You can see this if you look at the cloud flow to the NE of the Bahamas - that is disconnecting slowly but surely. Soon it will be an autonomous system and not embedded in the trough.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

I think their is a mid circulation its just a matter of time until it works down to the surface then our depression is born.

[CHRISTY]

Looking at the satellite loops, it appears to me that the center of the low is beween the Cayman Islands and Belize. I don't think the area of convection towars the Cayman Islands is the center of the low. My thinking is that if a TD forms it will track to the north then NE. The west coast of Florida should pay particular attention to this system.....MGC

One thing I am noticing also is that it is finally trying to seperate itself from the trough. You can see this if you look at the cloud flow to the NE of the Bahamas - that is disconnecting slowly but surely. Soon it will be an autonomous system and not embedded in the trough.

iam really interested in seeing the models later on tonight to see if they show any movement to the southeast.

[gatorcane]

Also, look carefully at the water vapor loop. That dry air in the SE GOM is being replenished with moisture around the counterclockwise flow of this system - I don't think there will be enough dry air to weaken this thing - we need to count on the shear and the Cuba landmass impacting it. If you look to the north over the FL peninsula, the dry air is being replaced by moist air from the N and NE.

The system is located in a position where it can pull moisture from the GOM the Caribbean and the Atlantic - dry air wont stop it where it is located right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[boca]

Boca_Chris in the water vapor shot if you look at the High building westward in the SE Caribbean would you think that might have some play on the track of 90L maybe keeping it more northerly direction rather than NE or ENE.

[Aquawind]

I expect shear to the an issue more so than water vapor.. both becoming more favorable to the north..

[wxmann_91]

The upper-level environment is getting much more favorable. Development looks likely within the next 24-36 hours. Low-level convergence is weak but UL divergence is fantastic due to the arriving UL anticyclone. Climatology would not favor it, but from experience and also the location such a pattern usually results in pretty rapid strengthening once the inner core gets going. Also in this location and especially if it does not gain enough latitude, it might stall and become a very intense hurricane. NOT SAYING IT WILL HAPPEN, but just a heads-up. However this will probably not happen, because it's further east it will likely be picked up by the trough and move eastward. The trough will be crucial later on since if this wanders to far west it could spell disaster for the East Coast ala an Agnes or Floyd situation.

EDIT: I'll add the disclaimer since this is a pretty long disco--

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

The upper-level environment is getting much more favorable. Development looks likely within the next 24-36 hours. Low-level convergence is weak but UL divergence is fantastic due to the arriving UL anticyclone. Climatology would not favor it, but from experience and also the location such a pattern usually results in pretty rapid strengthening once the inner core gets going. Also in this location and especially if it does not gain enough latitude, it might stall and become a very intense hurricane. NOT SAYING IT WILL HAPPEN, but just a heads-up. However this will probably not happen, because it's further east it will likely be picked up by the trough and move eastward. The trough will be crucial later on since if this wanders to far west it could spell disaster for the East Coast ala an Agnes or Floyd situation.

Wow interesting - you think possibly a stronger system and a shunt to the ENE missing Florida?

[gatorcane]

I expect shear to the an issue more so than water vapor.. both becoming more favorable to the north..

Earlier today many were writing this off because of too much dry air though - I argued with them about it.

[stormtruth]

Nice forecast though

Thanks; I really don't know what to think as of yet, and until it has a definite center, it's a pin the tail on the donkey sort of thing.

It is. And Florida is looking like the Donkey once again.

[gatorcane]

Boca_Chris in the water vapor shot if you look at the High building westward in the SE Caribbean would you think that might have some play on the track of 90L maybe keeping it more northerly direction rather than NE or ENE.

Well Boca the steering current are weak, so I dont that that high will impact it much. If you look at this water vapor loop you see the weakness moving down the East Coast of the US which I think our system could be feeling right now. But that is being caused by a low that is pulling NE out of the Canadian Maritines so it is just a temporary thing. Then a trough comes in a few days from the NW can is enough to push it NE. But it is all timing. There is also a build High in Texas. Between the time the trough moves down and how much the high builds it could actually begin moving NNW for a while until it moves N and the NE when it feels the trough.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[wxwatcher91]

bit old but here is the latest QuikSCAT pass: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - but here are my intensity predictions and chance of development:

Tropical depression - 80%
Tropical storm - 70%
Hurricane - 40%
Major hurricane - 10%