Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[Ivanhater]

I am really surprised some of you actually think this thing has a chance at becoming a major hurricane.I think after what happened in 2005 you guys think that every little blob that pops up is going to explode into a Wilma.Yes I know this will be encountering a little more favorable conditions,that doesn't mean a cat 3.A weak hurricane at the very most IMO.

yep, this will likely be struggling its whole journey

[gatorcane]

I am really surprised some of you actually think this thing has a chance at becoming a major hurricane.I think after what happened in 2005 you guys think that every little blob that pops up is going to explode into a Wilma.Yes I know this will be encountering a little more favorable conditions,that doesn't mean a cat 3.A weak hurricane at the very most IMO.

Opal with all due respect look at it on the sat pics. It's larger than Florida and winding up as we speak as conditions are really improving. Remember just a couple of days ago the NHC didn't really think anything of it. While I think we do jump on the bandwagon and are on the edge, I think this one has some tricks up its sleeve for us. I do think chances of a major are low but a CAT 1 is possible. I think a strong TS with lots of rain and some wind for Florida will be what happens.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is the current shear map. There isn't that much to stop the storm shear wise once it gets into the GOM.

[Rainband]

I am really surprised some of you actually think this thing has a chance at becoming a major hurricane.I think after what happened in 2005 you guys think that every little blob that pops up is going to explode into a Wilma.Yes I know this will be encountering a little more favorable conditions,that doesn't mean a cat 3.A weak hurricane at the very most IMO.

I couldn't agree more. I am really going to need aleive this season

[wxmann_91]

I am really surprised some of you actually think this thing has a chance at becoming a major hurricane.I think after what happened in 2005 you guys think that every little blob that pops up is going to explode into a Wilma.Yes I know this will be encountering a little more favorable conditions,that doesn't mean a cat 3.A weak hurricane at the very most IMO.

As I said, I was more thinking out loud, I've already written that my forecast would peak the storm at a marginal 1, not being conservative.

Although, if it weren't for last season, I wouldn't probably have even thought of that, so you do have a good point Thankfully now that I've said it that definitely 100% rules it out.

[rockyman]

My question got buried on the last page...What evidence is there that the MLC is working its way to the surface?

[Aquawind]

That's analysis.. it will be different in the next couple days..It hasn't even formed yet..

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hate disagreeing with the pro mets, but I doubt this will re-develop further east. I can clearly see the circulation on visible well to the west of the Caymans and in my opinion this will end up being the primary one.

[bvigal]

It wouldn't surprise me if the models were all in the Bahamas by tomorrow.

Also don't be fooled by the shear pushing the cloud tops NE. I actually think it is nearly stationary right now and the mid-level circulation is working its way down to the surface near the Cayman islands as we speak.

Yes, visible just west of Cayman. I've been watching that same vis loop for the last hour, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Did you notice they removed the low specified with "NWS Fronts" at 18N 86w?

[DESTRUCTION5]

There is no doubt our CofC is way further east of Model Initiation.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is the current 48 hr shear forecast.

[gatorcane]

It wouldn't surprise me if the models were all in the Bahamas by tomorrow.

Also don't be fooled by the shear pushing the cloud tops NE. I actually think it is nearly stationary right now and the mid-level circulation is working its way down to the surface near the Cayman islands as we speak.

Yes, visible just west of Cayman. I've been watching that same vis loop for the last hour, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Did you notice they removed the low specified with "NWS Fronts" at 18N 86w?

Bvigal - no I didn't notice that. It was there 1 hour ago. Good catch. Folks get ready for a possible significant model shift here to the east. Could it miss Florida all together????

[Air Force Met]

Here is the current shear map. There isn't that much to stop the storm shear wise once it gets into the GOM.

The only reason the shear is low in the GOM is because there is a BIG upper level TROF in the GOM...which ain't that good for development!

Shear is always low in the middle of a low.

Now...if there was no shear and the GOM has a HIGH over it...the story would be different.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It wouldn't surprise me if the models were all in the Bahamas by tomorrow.

Also don't be fooled by the shear pushing the cloud tops NE. I actually think it is nearly stationary right now and the mid-level circulation is working its way down to the surface near the Cayman islands as we speak.

Yes, visible just west of Cayman. I've been watching that same vis loop for the last hour, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Did you notice they removed the low specified with "NWS Fronts" at 18N 86w?

Bvigal - no I didn't notice that. It was there 1 hour ago. Good catch. Folks get ready for a possible significant model shift here to the east. Could it miss Florida all together????

I don't know what you are talking about guys. I am looking at that visible and can clearly see the LLC is much further to the west. This is also aknowledged by the area of lowest pressure and wind reports.

[boca]

Thanks bviqal for that close up so I was fouled by the upper level clouds after all. Scratch what i said about the models being in the Bahamas.

[Ivanhater]

no one knows where this is going, I will bring back the case of Cindy last year, forecast track and everyone thought it was going to Galveston, then the center relocated and went to New Orleans. When the center picks its position and when the plane gets there tomorrow we will have a MUCH better idea where this is going, so everyone chill and relax for the time being

[Air Force Met]

I hate disagreeing with the pro mets, but I doubt this will re-develop further east. I can clearly see the circulation on visible well to the west of the Caymans and in my opinion this will end up being the primary one.

It may start there...but I think it will have a hard time staying there. The winds aloft are more favorable further east...the convection is there...and storms form further east on elongated trofs all the time. We see it EVERY season with weak lows. Happens all the time and I think the situation is ripe for it to happen this time.

[gatorcane]

no one knows where this is going, I will bring back the case of Cindy last year, forecast track and everyone thought it was going to Galveston, then the center relocated and went to New Orleans. When the center picks its position and when the plane gets there tomorrow we will have a MUCH better idea where this is going, so everyone chill and relax for the time being

Hey it's happy hour time for drinks right?

[wxmann_91]

I hate disagreeing with the pro mets, but I doubt this will re-develop further east. I can clearly see the circulation on visible well to the west of the Caymans and in my opinion this will end up being the primary one.

The one you are alluding to is naked. Another circulation is evident under some deep convection that has just developed.

About how one can see an MLC developing down into a LLC, I don't know.

[Extremeweatherguy]

no one knows where this is going, I will bring back the case of Cindy last year, forecast track and everyone thought it was going to Galveston, then the center relocated and went to New Orleans. When the center picks its position and when the plane gets there tomorrow we will have a MUCH better idea where this is going, so everyone chill and relax for the time being

agreed. We all should calm down until more is known. I was gone for only 5 hours and we have gained 18-19 more pages in that period. That is just a little insane.