Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

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Ivanhater
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#101 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:25 pm

boca_chris wrote:
ivanhater wrote:no one knows where this is going, I will bring back the case of Cindy last year, forecast track and everyone thought it was going to Galveston, then the center relocated and went to New Orleans. When the center picks its position and when the plane gets there tomorrow we will have a MUCH better idea where this is going, so everyone chill and relax for the time being :D


Hey it's happy hour time for drinks right? :lol:


I like your thinking 8-) :lol:
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#102 Postby benny » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:26 pm

The area of lowest pressure that I can find:

09/23 42056 19.9 -85.1 25.8 24.8 030 19 G 21 030 21 1005.9mb

1005.9 mb is pretty low...the low is around 19/84 or so given this ob and the satellite...
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#103 Postby boca » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:26 pm

Bahamas or no Bahamas that is the question :roll:
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#104 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:27 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
ivanhater wrote:no one knows where this is going, I will bring back the case of Cindy last year, forecast track and everyone thought it was going to Galveston, then the center relocated and went to New Orleans. When the center picks its position and when the plane gets there tomorrow we will have a MUCH better idea where this is going, so everyone chill and relax for the time being :D
agreed. We all should calm down until more is known. I was gone for only 5 hours and we have gained 18-19 more pages in that period. That is just a little insane.


lol, it is a bit fast and furious :eek:
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#105 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:27 pm

It is weird that the 18Z NAM still has this thing all the way over toward TX/LA in 84 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif\

And here is the NAM-WRF at the same time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif
^^BAD for TX^^
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#106 Postby Tampa_God » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:27 pm

I see this being a TD by tomorrow and barely not moving at all, maybe a small track to the N/NW and becoming a TS by Late Sun/ Early Monday. Then it will move N and then NE and becoming a Hurricane. ENE direction next with and strong Cat 1/Weak Cat 2 before hitting somewhere in the West Coast of FL, Main target is just north of Tampa. So near New Port Richey, where I live. Landfall in the middle of the week.
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#107 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:28 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:It is weird that the 18Z NAM still has this thing all the way over toward TX/LA in 84 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif


ya, I noticed that as well..not wanting to budge
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#108 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:29 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:It is weird that the 18Z NAM still has this thing all the way over toward TX/LA in 84 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif


Not Weird, its the NAM
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#109 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:29 pm

looks like some of the heavy convection is dying some - could be the typical cycle of a die off in the afternoon followed by an explosion at night. What do you think?
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#110 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:29 pm

After the last two hurricane seasons,especially 2005 I wouldnt rule out anything happening with this system. It looks like a good bet already that it will become Alberto and make land on the US coast,although I still have a hard time imagining Alberto as a cane
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#111 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:30 pm

boca_chris wrote:looks like some of the heavy convection is dying some - could be the typical cycle of a die off in the afternoon followed by an explosion at night. What do you think?


I think its Signature looks as good as it did all day!
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#112 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:30 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote: I don't know what you are talking about guys. I am looking at that visible and can clearly see the LLC is much further to the west. This is also aknowledged by the area of lowest pressure and wind reports.


Extreme...what you need to remember is the importance that mid-level vorticity plays in the spin up of sfc lows...and placing them in their FINAL positions. Pre-existing mid-level vortmaxs are extremely important in the formation of the sfc low and when it is weak...and when the convection has a tendency to get shunted to the east and NE...look for the sfc low to follow.

All you have to do to see this in action is go back to where this "feature" was located yesterday. It was over the Yuck and Belize. Now it is well east....moving towards the convection. Look at how the winds at 42056 have backed around.

The low is tracking towards the convection and upper level divergence. Not argueing where it is now...let's see where it ends up. Unless it gets persistent convection further west where it is now...it will form further east.
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#113 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:30 pm

boca_chris wrote:looks like some of the heavy convection is dying some - could be the typical cycle of a die off in the afternoon followed by an explosion at night. What do you think?
may be the western LLC will take back over tonight?
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#114 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:30 pm

boca_chris wrote:looks like some of the heavy convection is dying some - could be the typical cycle of a die off in the afternoon followed by an explosion at night. What do you think?


ya, it will likely pulse on and off for the near future, then start to consolidate tomorrow evening
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#115 Postby Opal storm » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:30 pm

boca_chris wrote:looks like some of the heavy convection is dying some - could be the typical cycle of a die off in the afternoon followed by an explosion at night. What do you think?
That's typical in weak disorganized systems like this.
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#116 Postby benny » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:31 pm

boca wrote:Bahamas or no Bahamas that is the question :roll:


Bahamas? You guys are a little off. There is a 500 mb ridge sitting over Florida.. good luck getting that to push right through the ridge.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

at some point this thing will have to turn more NW due to the higher heights... I wouldn't rule out a nly track for the first bit... i'm thinking the big bend area has the best shot but i can't tell what will happen in about 3 days after some mid-latitude interaction.. possible it could be tranisitioning a bit near landfall.
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#117 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:31 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote: I don't know what you are talking about guys. I am looking at that visible and can clearly see the LLC is much further to the west. This is also aknowledged by the area of lowest pressure and wind reports.


Extreme...what you need to remember is the importance that mid-level vorticity plays in the spin up of sfc lows...and placing them in their FINAL positions. Pre-existing mid-level vortmaxs are extremely important in the formation of the sfc low and when it is weak...and when the convection has a tendency to get shunted to the east and NE...look for the sfc low to follow.

All you have to do to see this in action is go back to where this "feature" was located yesterday. It was over the Yuck and Belize. Now it is well east....moving towards the convection. Look at how the winds at 42056 have backed around.

The low is tracking towards the convection and upper level divergence. Not argueing where it is now...let's see where it ends up. Unless it gets persistent convection further west where it is now...it will form further east.
ok, thanks for explaining that. I have been gone for a few hours today and now coming back I am a bit confused about all that is happening.
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#118 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:31 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote: I don't know what you are talking about guys. I am looking at that visible and can clearly see the LLC is much further to the west. This is also aknowledged by the area of lowest pressure and wind reports.


Extreme...what you need to remember is the importance that mid-level vorticity plays in the spin up of sfc lows...and placing them in their FINAL positions. Pre-existing mid-level vortmaxs are extremely important in the formation of the sfc low and when it is weak...and when the convection has a tendency to get shunted to the east and NE...look for the sfc low to follow.

All you have to do to see this in action is go back to where this "feature" was located yesterday. It was over the Yuck and Belize. Now it is well east....moving towards the convection. Look at how the winds at 42056 have backed around.

The low is tracking towards the convection and upper level divergence. Not argueing where it is now...let's see where it ends up. Unless it gets persistent convection further west where it is now...it will form further east.


agreed Air Force Met - well-said thanks :D
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#119 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:35 pm

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.
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#120 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:36 pm

The MLC convection may be dying off...but a new spurt of convection is blossoming near the old center...Perhaps rumors of its death have been exaggerated. 8-)
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