Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

I agree there is a circulation there but, is it mid level? Is there a low level circulation under there?

when you look closely you can make out a low-level cloud swirl. (unless I am seeing things)

nope. your right

that Cir won't survive...

I think it will. the other one near the caymans already looks like it is dying.

[Ivanhater]

so where is the center??? I'm confused

lol. still could form anywhere, but for now 84w and 18 n give or take

[Ivanhater]

I dont know, but storms are re firing around our old low

[boca]

I agree on the detachment off of the trough lifting out because I saw the sat of the US which will leave 90L either moving northward or just sitting down there.

[gatorcane]

so where is the center??? I'm confused

lol. still could form anywhere, but for now 84w and 18 n give or take

I think it is the first couple of drinks combined with watching endless sat loops that is making my head spin!! (no I am not drinking. lol)

[Ivanhater]

so where is the center??? I'm confused

lol. still could form anywhere, but for now 84w and 18 n give or take

I think it is the first couple of drinks combined with watching endless sat loops that is making my head spin!! (no I am not drinking. lol)

[wxman57]

I still don't see it. I see it going as far east as perhaps Tampa. Climatology does not support a South FL hit.

Actually, the set-up is very similar to October. Just had a big Nor'Easter and a moderate cold front has pushed off the east U.S. coast. Moderate WSW winds aloft into Florida, just as would be seen in October behind a front. It's not a "normal" june flow pattern.

[Noles2006]

I took a break, came back and it looks to me like the low around 18/85 had thunderstorms firing around it and it was drifting northward.

[boca]

Drinks or on me.

[Opal storm]

I dont know, but storms are re firing around our old low

I lost track of all these "lows",is the "old low" the one over the yucatan?

[gatorcane]

I still don't see it. I see it going as far east as perhaps Tampa. Climatology does not support a South FL hit.

Actually, the set-up is very similar to October. Just had a big Nor'Easter and a moderate cold front has pushed off the east U.S. coast. Moderate WSW winds aloft into Florida, just as would be seen in October behind a front. It's not a "normal" june flow pattern.

Yes I agree it is the Wilma setup without a powerful Wilma right now - actually on this visible you can see the possible center just about 50 miles E of where the NHC had it originally:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[ronjon]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

I agree there is a circulation there but, is it mid level? Is there a low level circulation under there?

when you look closely you can make out a low-level cloud swirl. (unless I am seeing things)

You can see the LLC on this SAT - moving N-NW. Everyone is focusing on the MLC that is racing off to the N-NE near 19N82.5 W. Look at the shear going on in the NE quad of the convection. Ain't no way a LLC is gonna form in that environment. The broad LLC is still there at 18N 85 W. What is limiting the LLC at present is some dry air entrainment to the NW and the shear axis to the NE. The shear axis will lift out to the NE leaving the broad LLC to gather strength slowly tomorrow. Anyway, that's my take at the moment.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[Dean4Storms]

RAMSDIS still has their floater on the actual surface low that is forming.......


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

[Ivanhater]

I dont know, but storms are re firing around our old low

I lost track of all these "lows",is the "old low" the one over the yucatan?

well my old low is when I started tracking earlier this afternoon, I put it around 84w 18n give or take, geez this is getting confusing

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree on the detachment off of the trough lifting out because I saw the sat of the US which will leave 90L either moving northward or just sitting down there.

if it sits down there long enough it may miss the trof and FL could be spared. If that happened, then the Central and Western Gulf coasts would potentially be at risk.

[Bgator]

I dont know, but storms are re firing around our old low

I lost track of all these "lows",is the "old low" the one over the yucatan?

well my old low is when I started tracking earlier this afternoon, I put it around 84w 18n give or take, geez this is getting confusing

I see it near 18/84 to, moving due north!

[Ivanhater]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

I agree there is a circulation there but, is it mid level? Is there a low level circulation under there?

when you look closely you can make out a low-level cloud swirl. (unless I am seeing things)

You can see the LLC on this SAT - moving N-NW. Everyone is focusing on the MLC that is racing off to the N-NE near 19N82.5 W. Look at the shear going on in the NE quad of the convection. Ain't no way a LLC is gonna form in that environment. The broad LLC is still there at 18N 85 W. What is limiting the LLC at present is some dry air entrainment to the NW and the shear axis to the NE. The shear axis will lift out to the NE leaving the broad LLC to gather strength slowly tomorrow. Anyway, that's my take at the moment.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

I agree

[Noles2006]

I agree on the detachment off of the trough lifting out because I saw the sat of the US which will leave 90L either moving northward or just sitting down there.

if it sits down there long enough it may miss the trof and FL could be spared. If that happened, then the Central and Western Gulf coasts would potentially be at risk.

But it does look to be moving slowly to the North...

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

I agree there is a circulation there but, is it mid level? Is there a low level circulation under there?

when you look closely you can make out a low-level cloud swirl. (unless I am seeing things)

You can see the LLC on this SAT - moving N-NW. Everyone is focusing on the MLC that is racing off to the N-NE near 19N82.5 W. Look at the shear going on in the NE quad of the convection. Ain't no way a LLC is gonna form in that environment. The broad LLC is still there at 18N 85 W. What is limiting the LLC at present is some dry air entrainment to the NW and the shear axis to the NE. The shear axis will lift out to the NE leaving the broad LLC to gather strength slowly tomorrow. Anyway, that's my take at the moment.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

wow, you can really see it well on that first link's loop.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

gfdl 18Z