Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[Evil Jeremy]

only time will tell.

[skysummit]

Even if it would move over South Florida, it will be NOTHING like Wilma in intensity...most likely not even a cat 1.

[bigmike]

NAM shifted WAY west on the 00z run

Nam is a piece of junk Ivanhater you should know that.

[Ivanhater]

NAM shifted WAY west on the 00z run

Nam is a piece of junk Ivanhater you should know that.

lol, I know. thats why I gave the eyeroll

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Alberto- STAY AWAY from tampa....I asked for a little rain, not a strong tropical storm. Hit elsewhere...give us a few outer rainbands of rain, but hit elsewhere.
Those prediction model tracks make me MAD...

but the rain would be NICE...but the strong winds/surge...nope.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The worst thing is the fact that many Katrina victims have likely moved to areas along the FL west coast expecting a quieter year. What a horrible start to the season this will be for them.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Well, one of our local mets, Carl Arodando (sp?) was on the radio, and stated that he anticipated it being in the "Central" Gulf by mid to later week, and while a shift to a more easterly couse is possible and that some models show that, the folks in our area need to keep watching because one never really knows. Maybe he was putting more faith in the UKMET model, I dunno... but frankly, with no wishes for anything more than some long needed rain, I hope those folks get that rain, and nothing worse... for me... I hope it stays the heck away from our area... we still have PUMP problems, much less worrying about levees and thousands of trailers all over the place.

A2K

[Evil Jeremy]

my forecast: a slight repeat of francess. It will inch up slowly towards the area in which Wilma hit, make landfall as a weak Cat. 1, weaken to a mid-level TS inland. it would move at a slow speed, like francess, but it will not stall overland. overall, if my forecast holds true, South Florida will recieve its much-needed rainfall, but we will probaly get an overdose. winds are no concern of mine at the moment.

[robbielyn]

Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:41 pm Post subject:

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Alberto- STAY AWAY from tampa....I asked for a little rain, not a strong tropical storm. Hit elsewhere...give us a few outer rainbands of rain, but hit elsewhere.
Those prediction model tracks make me MAD...

but the rain would be NICE...but the strong winds/surge...nope.

Don't worry you will get your wish. It's not coming to tampa. It will hit north or south. But you will get the rains you want most likely. I hope to get some strong winds myself. I enjoy it. Dont want devastation just a little excitement thats all. However, I am a little concerned abou the tornado threat.

[rockyman]

Hey, Jeremy...thanks for the forecast! Could you explain why you think this storm is going to follow your proposed path?

[CHRISTY]

Its getting that comma shape....overall structure looks alot better.

IR image...

[Extremeweatherguy]

At this time, here is my official prediction for tonight (will likely have changed by tomorrow):

I think the storm will make landfall somewhere between Houston and Tampa as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80mph. I am not buying into the south Florida track...yet. I simply do not think the trof will get to the system until it is parallel to or north of Tampa.

[rockyman]

That comma shape would normally indicate a better-organized system...but all the latest date indicates that the low level center is well-removed from the comma...so the system really isn't that much better organized at the moment (IMO).

[george_r_1961]

Its getting that comma shape....overall structure looks alot better.

IR image...

Christy id really like to wait till morning and see the visible...IR makes a system look a lot more intense than it really is.

[gatorcane]

Even if it would move over South Florida, it will be NOTHING like Wilma in intensity...most likely not even a cat 1.

people said Wilma would be a CAT 1 at best - look what happened. We cannot underestimate the power of the SE GOM and Caribbean - it could easily be a CAT 1-2 when it makes landfall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the LLC is under that area of convection on the western side of the blob between the Caymans and the Yucatan and is moving NNW.

[gatorcane]

That comma shape would normally indicate a better-organized system...but all the latest date indicates that the low level center is well-removed from the comma...so the system really isn't that much better organized at the moment (IMO).

But how come it seems that all the energy keeps inching NE towards South Florida?

[CHRISTY]

Its getting that comma shape....overall structure looks alot better.

IR image...

Christy id really like to wait till morning and see the visible...IR makes a system look a lot more intense than it really is.

I agree i also will be waiting for morning visibles.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That comma shape would normally indicate a better-organized system...but all the latest date indicates that the low level center is well-removed from the comma...so the system really isn't that much better organized at the moment (IMO).

But how come it seems that all the energy keeps inching NE towards South Florida?

light shear.

[wx247]

That comma shape would normally indicate a better-organized system...but all the latest date indicates that the low level center is well-removed from the comma...so the system really isn't that much better organized at the moment (IMO).

But how come it seems that all the energy keeps inching NE towards South Florida?

In a counter clockwise pattern, that would be the way that would head since it is east of the actual center.