Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

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rockyman
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#441 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 10:55 pm

boca_chris wrote:
rockyman wrote:That comma shape would normally indicate a better-organized system...but all the latest date indicates that the low level center is well-removed from the comma...so the system really isn't that much better organized at the moment (IMO).


But how come it seems that all the energy keeps inching NE towards South Florida?


that energy is riding the trough to the ENE...and leaving the low level center behind...the only reason it's not dying out is the upper level divergent flow
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#442 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 10:56 pm

boca_chris wrote:
rockyman wrote:That comma shape would normally indicate a better-organized system...but all the latest date indicates that the low level center is well-removed from the comma...so the system really isn't that much better organized at the moment (IMO).


But how come it seems that all the energy keeps inching NE towards South Florida?


The outflow is being sheared into southeast Florida.
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#443 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2006 10:57 pm

you cannot deny the fact that South Florida is going to get a deluge or rain and "feeder bands" once the develop. It clearly is going to effect South Florida - look at where it started: the Yucatan and now it is shifted this far ENE. I highly doubt it will get any farther west than where it is.

We have yet to get into the summer time regime - and the Bermuda High is very weak.
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#444 Postby wx247 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:00 pm

I wouldn't deny the fact that Florida is going to see some rain. Whether they get the tropical system (if one even forms) remains to be seen. ;)
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#445 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:00 pm

EWG good point....Light shear and still interacting with the trough. Key is not to focus on the blob but the low level clouds that will give away the LLC. Hard to do at night though on the vis.
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#446 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:01 pm

Invest 90L doesn't look so healty tonight.
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#447 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:02 pm

00Z GFS has been run through 72 hours... fairly weak still:

Image
Last edited by mtm4319 on Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#448 Postby hiflyer » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:02 pm

May I suggest that now that Cuban Radar is in pretty good shape...compared to last year....that those sites might be of interest?

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... B1=RADARES
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#449 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:04 pm

Image

This map always shows weird results..
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CHRISTY

#450 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:04 pm

guys the models earlier were pointing at the panhandle now the shifted a bit south...maybe in responce to the imcoming trough the GFS been forcasting.
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#451 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:05 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Invest 90L doesn't look so healty tonight.



its looking better than ever! if your talking about the convection loss, its part of the formation stage.
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CHRISTY

#452 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:07 pm

this just came to my thoughts maybe this will turn out to be like a irene type senerio for southflorida.
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#453 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:08 pm

The trough axis is now off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, and is more than 10 degrees latitude away from 90L...plus the ridge over Arkansas is sliding east and connecting up with the Bermuda high...If this storm doesn't move quickly, the Florida door is going to slam shut and this system will be a problem for the central Gulf Coast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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Scorpion

#454 Postby Scorpion » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:08 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Invest 90L doesn't look so healty tonight.


You're kidding me right?
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#455 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:10 pm

rockyman wrote:The trough axis is now off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, and is more than 10 degrees latitude away from 90L...plus the ridge over Arkansas is sliding east and connecting up with the Bermuda high...If this storm doesn't move quickly, the Florida door is going to slam shut and this system will be a problem for the central Gulf Coast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


ummmm...no the trough will dig down and erode this. It has Florida written all over it 8-)
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#456 Postby Scorpion » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:10 pm

rockyman wrote:The trough axis is now off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, and is more than 10 degrees latitude away from 90L...plus the ridge over Arkansas is sliding east and connecting up with the Bermuda high...If this storm doesn't move quickly, the Florida door is going to slam shut and this system will be a problem for the central Gulf Coast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


I certainly believe that this may indeed occur. The question is... will the result be a stronger or weaker storm?
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#457 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:12 pm

Thanks, boca_chris, for your comments...except for the ummmmm... :D

Could you provide links to models showing a trough digging down...Thanks!
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CHRISTY

#458 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:13 pm

so far in 2006 we have strong troughs coming down into the gulf bringing down bown dry air like the one in place in the gulf right now.

Image
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#459 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:14 pm

Scorpion wrote:
rockyman wrote:The trough axis is now off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, and is more than 10 degrees latitude away from 90L...plus the ridge over Arkansas is sliding east and connecting up with the Bermuda high...If this storm doesn't move quickly, the Florida door is going to slam shut and this system will be a problem for the central Gulf Coast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


I certainly believe that this may indeed occur. The question is... will the result be a stronger or weaker storm?
I think so too. I am getting very worried that this may surprise everyone by being a central gulf hit and not a Florida hit.
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#460 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:14 pm

rockyman wrote:Thanks, boca_chris, for your comments...except for the ummmmm... :D

Could you provide links to models showing a trough digging down...Thanks!


Why are all the models forecasting a NE turn then?
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