Don't like the new MM5 one darn bit!

[duris]

40 miles south of New Orleans is Barataria Bay. Houma is southwest of New Orleans and is less vunerable than the city.

LOL...believe me, Houma can easily get under 15 feet of water. For Katrina, locals were warning of 10' in downtown Houma. Less vulnerable??? Please...we are your "barrier island". Thousands of homes just south of Houma went underwater for RITA. Ever flew over Houma? You can see the gulf clearly...it isn't that for away. Studies show a Cat 5 hitting Terrebonne Bay would send the storm surge all the way to Thibodaux. That's the gulf storm surge, not counting the bayous and canals that would be overtopped.

My brother-in-law is building a new house in Houma and says we can all go there for storms. His nice new house has a view of the bayou right across the street. Um, no thanks.

[NewOrleansMeteorologist]

How many feet above sea level is Houma?

[skysummit]

40 miles south of New Orleans is Barataria Bay. Houma is southwest of New Orleans and is less vunerable than the city.

LOL...believe me, Houma can easily get under 15 feet of water. For Katrina, locals were warning of 10' in downtown Houma. Less vulnerable??? Please...we are your "barrier island". Thousands of homes just south of Houma went underwater for RITA. Ever flew over Houma? You can see the gulf clearly...it isn't that for away. Studies show a Cat 5 hitting Terrebonne Bay would send the storm surge all the way to Thibodaux. That's the gulf storm surge, not counting the bayous and canals that would be overtopped.

My brother-in-law is building a new house in Houma and says we can all go there for storms. His nice new house has a view of the bayou right across the street. Um, no thanks.

LOL...I don't blame you.

[skysummit]

How many feet above sea level is Houma?

We are not below sea level if that's where you're going. We range from 0 - 11 feet in certain areas.

[NewOrleansMeteorologist]

Which is why you're less vulnerable than New Orleans.

[skysummit]

Which is why you're less vulnerable than New Orleans.

Ok buddy...I'm not going to get into a debate of which city is more vulnerable. That's just childish. Point is, if we get hit by a slow moving Cat 4 or 5 storm, all of SELA will be underwater.

[duris]

I hate VIPIR.....

Bob did blow Katrina way out the window. VIPIR is not a good model for the tropics, it is something like the NAM/MM5. I work for Bob Breck and I always tell him not to go by the VIPIR but sometimes its right others it isnt. Bob likes to bring the positives out the weather instead of the negatives.

Carl did say that?

Just watched the rerun, and Carl did not say that. He just said that it would move into the Central Gulf before it went anywhere else and showed one model possibly bringing us rain on Tuesday, and another with the rain on the east side. Nothing about a Central Gulf COAST event or LA/MS being a distinct possibility. Just a bear watch.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Just watched the rerun, and Carl did not say that. He just said that it would move into the Central Gulf before it went anywhere else and showed one model possibly bringing us rain on Tuesday, and another with the rain on the east side. Nothing about a Central Gulf COAST event or LA/MS being a distinct possibility. Just a bear watch.

Didn't know they ran reruns on the radio. I do know what I heard on the radio, but cannot attest to what he said on the TV... either way, yes he definitely did say bears watching... but on the RADIO said the Central GC was a possibility... I may have tinnitus, but I don't hear voices yet.

A2K

[deltadog03]

its funny...MOST people are calling this a FL hit!!!! why is that?

[duris]

Just watched the rerun, and Carl did not say that. He just said that it would move into the Central Gulf before it went anywhere else and showed one model possibly bringing us rain on Tuesday, and another with the rain on the east side. Nothing about a Central Gulf COAST event or LA/MS being a distinct possibility. Just a bear watch.

Didn't know they ran reruns on the radio. I do know what I heard on the radio, but cannot attest to what he said on the TV... either way, yes he definitely did say bears watching... but on the RADIO said the Central GC was a possibility... I may have tinnitus, but I don't hear voices yet.

A2K

Sorry, my bad, I didn't know Carl was on the radio and was referring to TV. And I suffer from KDD ("Katrina Deficit Disorder").

[TS Zack]

Well, the Canadian now takes it off our coast and stalls it.

Nobody should let their guard down. We do not know at this point. The ridge will bump it at some point but to what extent it does that is yet to be determined. Plus, the center will jump around in the formative stages and models always change.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Sorry, my bad, I didn't know Carl was on the radio and was referring to TV. And I suffer from KDD ("Katrina Deficit Disorder").

Hey, no problem... I think EVERYONE around here suffers from that malady!

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yup... I think the first FAIRLY reliable data we'll get is after the recon flight tomorrow PM.

A2K

[TSmith274]

Hmm, just checking the site for the first time today. Very interesting. Time to pour over the data.......

[HollynLA]

Sorry, but I have to chime in with the Houma situation. Houma sits in Terrebone parish which has no flood protection at all. The small cities south of Houma flood tremendously (Dulac, Cocodrie, Point Aux Chenes, Montegut, and more) but the news barely talks about them. Rita caused terrible flooding in Terrebone but there was barely a blip on the news about it. My property in Dulac had 8' of water because of Rita which made landfall over 100 miles away. Houma is extremely vulnerable! certainly not a safe haven for a hurricane.

[sunny]

Hey Scott, any change with mm5 this morning (please, please PLEASE say it has changed).

[Extremeweatherguy]

This paragraph should frighten the whole gulf coast. Basically, this thing could go anywhere:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10. THE DEPRESSION
IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL
AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND STALLS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF
MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS...WHILE THE UKMET
TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.

[skysummit]

Hey Scott, any change with mm5 this morning (please, please PLEASE say it has changed).

The 00z takes it to the Central Gulf and stalls it. The 00z Canadian does the same. The 00z NOGAPS does the same. The 06z is out to 48 hours and looks like it does the same.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey Scott, any change with mm5 this morning (please, please PLEASE say it has changed).

The 00z takes it to the Central Gulf and stalls it. The 00z Canadian does the same. The 00z NOGAPS does the same. The 06z is out to 48 hours and looks like it does the same.

that's not good. A stalling system means it may have lots of time to strengthen.

[Cape Verde]

The Canadian model stalls it and weakens it.

I'm not sure I'm buying that, but I'm not sure it matters. Nobody is predicting this to become a major hurricane at the moment, and some models don't predict it becoming one at all.

I don't think there's the slightest doubt that it will not become Alberto, but I don't think this is a storm we will be remembering much about by September.