Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9

JamesFromMaine2 · #1 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:45 pm

Aquawind · #2 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:54 pm

As of 11:30 EDT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml?

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W 1004 MB WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS W
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT THROUGH SUN. ATLC RIDGE WILL
BUILD W AND STRENGTHEN TRADES ACROSS E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS SAT THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WILL ENTER
THE E CARIBBEAN SUN FURTHER INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.

#3 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:58 pm

darn... got locked while i tried to post :lol:

The new 00z Canadian is showing the Storm heading straight for N.O. in about 60hr, but all of the moisture and rain fall heads straight for south florida. So that the storm that reaches N.O. is just about bone dry. But then the storm regains some moisture and heads inland around the florida panhandle at about 132 hours.

36hr moisture split is evident compare panel 2 and 4...

48hr moisture split becoming more defined...

60hr Storm LLC off the coast of N.O. but moisture over south florida...

108hr Storm LLC off the coast of N.O. STIL! moisture heading up NC coast...

132hr Storm LLC heads inland over FL panhandle, rebuilds moisture content just prior around 120hr...

#4 Postby **MGC** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:07 am

I think the risk to New Orleans is low. Like I posted earlier in the day, I think the Florida Pen is at greatest risk. At most it will be a min cane. The shear over the NW Carb is still impeading rapid development. So, I'm calling for slow intensification, northward movement at first then a turn to the NE.....MGC

#5 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:14 am

can they upgrade a system at 2 am or anytime for that matter?

#6 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:15 am

fact789 wrote:can they upgrade a system at 2 am or anytime for that matter?

Yes they can issue a special advisory. It isn't likely though unless they have clear satellite data. I think it will be declared TD1 when the Hurricane Hunter visits tomorrow afternoon.

#7 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:16 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
fact789 wrote:can they upgrade a system at 2 am or anytime for that matter?

Yes they can issue a special advisory. It isn't likely though unless they have clear satellite data. I think it will be declared TD1 when the Hurricane Hunter visits tomorrow afternoon.

cool beans :lol:

#8 Postby **MGC** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:17 am

The NHC will most likely wait for recon unless ship reports are good enough to classify it a TD or TS....MGC

boca · #9 Postby **boca** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:17 am

I'm playing catch up been away from this site for 6 hours and what I can gather is the models dipped alittle south. I still think its a FL panhandle Cedar Key hit.

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #10 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:18 am

Does anybody have a map of past storm tracks for June systems forming in that area?

#11 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:21 am

im waiting for the next TWD for the Atlantic which should be given out very soon.

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:23 am

seeing that the NAM, UKMET, Canadian and FSU model all show a central or western Gulf threat; I am not letting my guard down just yet. I am starting to get a feeling that this will not recurve into FL as soon as expected (if at all).

#13 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:24 am

but all of the models are slowly moving south.

boca · #14 Postby **boca** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:24 am

As long as it stays away from Florida.

Extremeweatherguy · #15 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:25 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:but all of the models are slowly moving south.

Not the NAM, UKMET, Canadian, FSU model or a few others. They still have a more western or central gulf route.

#16 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:27 am

boca, aint gonna to happen!!!

Extremeweatherguy, they were more north earlier today and yesterday.

Extremeweatherguy · #17 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:27 am

This was posted by Vaffie on the last thread:

and this is the FSUMM5 posted by ericinmia at 96 hrs:

http://img98.imageshack.us/my.php?image=slp327jl.png

Extremeweatherguy · #18 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:28 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:boca, aint gonna to happen!!!

Extremeweatherguy, they were more north earlier today and yesterday.

If you look at my above post you can see that most models still think N. Florida, and some still think the central or west gulf.

#19 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:29 am

why does the jtwc give a crap about the GOM?

#20 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:30 am

1. what are all of those grey lines?

2. the 2:05 TWD came in very early today!!!!!
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
1005 MB LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W DRIFTING
NORTHWARD. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AS OF
YET BUT THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF BANDING FEATURES AND
LARGE (3-4 MB) 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS. THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL SIGNS GENERALLY POINT TO
IT DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE ROUGHLY
TAKE THE SYSTEM IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY ABOUT THIS TIME
TOMORROW. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE W OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN EXPANSION OF AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 18N83W. FOR NOW.. THE PRIMARY THREAT
IS CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL
CUBA WESTWARD AS SOME OF THOSE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED OVER 8 INCHES
OF RAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND 85W.

Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9

Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9

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