Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9

[Brent]

1. what are all of those grey lines?

Different computer models.

[boca]

according to the two:

Posted: Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:33 am Post subject:

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...SPECIAL FEATURE...
1005 MB LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W DRIFTING
NORTHWARD. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AS OF
YET BUT THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF BANDING FEATURES AND
LARGE (3-4 MB) 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS. THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL SIGNS GENERALLY POINT TO
IT DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE ROUGHLY
TAKE THE SYSTEM IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY ABOUT THIS TIME
TOMORROW. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE W OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN EXPANSION OF AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 18N83W. FOR NOW.. THE PRIMARY THREAT
IS CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL
CUBA WESTWARD AS SOME OF THOSE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED OVER 8 INCHES
OF RAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND 85W.

Northern Gulf coast not out of the woods yet. NW thru the Yucatan Channel.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Northern Gulf coast not out of the woods yet. NW thru the Yucatan Channel.

Exactly what I've been concerned about all along...

A2K

[boca]

According to that scenario A2K you need to prepare more than I do here in Florida.
Hey wait 5 minutes things can change.

[PTrackerLA]

That discussion sure doesn't make it sound like this is a Florida storm. Bottom line is all of the gulf coast should be keeping a close eye on this thing.

[King-6]

Plenty of Moisture with this system,Hoping to put the fires out in the Everglades...
A few days ago,ashes were falling from the sky here in northern broward.

[mtm4319]

Latest obs overlaid with QUIKSCAT, center estimate, and IR4 satellite:

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest obs overlaid with QUIKSCAT, center estimate, and IR4 satellite:

wow, that center is even SW of what I have been thinking.

[mtm4319]

Latest obs overlaid with QUIKSCAT, center estimate, and IR4 satellite:

wow, that center is even SW of what I have been thinking.

It could be a little bit northeast of that - my dot is what I estimated based on where the barbs were wrapping around.

[Bgator]

Latest obs overlaid with QUIKSCAT, center estimate, and IR4 satellite:

wow, that center is even SW of what I have been thinking.

It could be a little bit northeast of that - my dot is what I estimated based on where the barbs were wrapping around.

Looking at shortwave IR, i see no spin there, i see one reforming, but that Quicksat totally disproves me... :/, i see no spin there tho ! uggH!

[skysummit]

Bgator...you really won't see a spin there until the first visible images come in. It's almost impossible for us to see the low cloud deck on IR.

[Bgator]

Latest obs overlaid with QUIKSCAT, center estimate, and IR4 satellite:

wow, that center is even SW of what I have been thinking.

It could be a little bit northeast of that - my dot is what I estimated based on where the barbs were wrapping around.

Looking at shortwave IR, i see no spin there, i see one reforming, but that Quicksat totally disproves me... :/, i see no spin there tho ! uggH!

EDIT is there a possibility of a reformation of the LLC?

Looking very hard, i see the spin, yet there is not alot of convection with it and its not as pretty as i once thought the nice banding is with the other system closer to cuba! Does nyone agree with me?

[ericinmia]

A lot of this falls on how recent that last QS was.... and the fact that without an eye feature, and it being nightime so no visible. It is near impossible to track any weak LLC.

Hasta manana mis amigos...

[mtm4319]

A lot of this falls on how recent that last QS was.... and the fact that without an eye feature, and it being nightime so no visible. It is near impossible to track any weak LLC.

Hasta manana mis amigos...

The "search" window was from 09/18Z to 10/05Z.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/SCA ... 10_-90.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

the system seems to have become a little less orginizided convection wise. it is also still moving in the same direction as before, so this might not form at all! to hard to tell.

[HURAKAN]

THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AS OF
YET BUT THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF BANDING FEATURES AND
LARGE (3-4 MB) 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS. THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL SIGNS GENERALLY POINT TO
IT DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.

I can deduce from this that the system is lacking a defined center, and when it forms, it will become a depression.

[Bgator]

the system seems to have become a little less orginizided convection wise. it is also still moving in the same direction as before, so this might not form at all! to hard to tell.

I agree its not to pretty if the Low is where they say it is...Yet it is night and convection will begin to flare again tomorrow morning!

[TS Zack]

In the tropics, storms usually flare-up at nighttime not during the day. Therefore, this can't be good for the developer lovers.

Also, is it just me or is only the GFS based models taking this thing towards Florida. All others are bringing it into the Central Gulf.

[Audrey2Katrina]

The models I've seen are all over the place

Just too soon... too many possibilities.

A2K

[Evil Jeremy]

MODEL UPDATE:

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It appeares that the storm has changes directions and is now headed north. If you look at the models, most of them are, just as i predicted, moving south.