Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9

#41 Postby **Steve** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:49 am

>>In the tropics, storms usually flare-up at nighttime not during the day. Therefore, this can't be good for the developer lovers.

Not always. You have to watch the specific system. They behave differently depending on the variables.

Steve

#42 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:03 am

I'm surprised at the consensus among the models at this point since there isn't/hasn't been a LLC to truly initialize on yet. My concern continues to be the fact that it is "drifting" N not "moving" N. If it laguishes down there long enough 90L could become anyone's storm again instead of the current probable E GOM problem that it appears it will be.

#43 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:44 am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
Buoy report near center. That's getting pretty low.

djones65 · #44 Postby **djones65** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:59 am

A ship with identifier C6LU4 reported south winds (180 degrees) at 42 knots about 80 miles east of the center of this tropical disturbance at 0600 UTC. The pressure was 1012 mb (which seems a little high) so the report may not be accurate. If NHC's "quality control" verifies this is accurate, and not just a convective generated wind, then it should be named a tropical storm.

#45 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:21 am

WHXX01 KWBC 100819
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060610 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060610 0600 060610 1800 060611 0600 060611 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.5N 85.3W 21.7N 86.2W 23.9N 87.0W 25.9N 87.1W
BAMM 19.5N 85.3W 21.3N 86.6W 22.8N 87.6W 24.2N 88.2W
A98E 19.5N 85.3W 20.8N 85.3W 22.4N 85.6W 23.9N 85.4W
LBAR 19.5N 85.3W 21.2N 85.7W 23.4N 86.3W 25.5N 86.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060612 0600 060613 0600 060614 0600 060615 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.8N 86.0W 30.6N 81.2W 35.2N 75.5W 43.1N 66.9W
BAMM 25.3N 87.9W 25.9N 84.5W 28.0N 78.1W 32.9N 69.4W
A98E 25.3N 85.0W 27.4N 82.3W 30.6N 76.1W 38.4N 62.8W
LBAR 27.4N 84.7W 30.5N 77.8W 38.3N 67.0W 44.6N 61.9W
SHIP 42KTS 51KTS 57KTS 54KTS
DSHP 42KTS 42KTS 47KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.5N LONCUR = 85.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 85.0W DIRM12 = 18DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 85.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#46 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:30 am

10/0545 UTC 18.8N 84.4W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Thunder44 · #47 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:32 am

djones65 wrote:A ship with identifier C6LU4 reported south winds (180 degrees) at 42 knots about 80 miles east of the center of this tropical disturbance at 0600 UTC. The pressure was 1012 mb (which seems a little high) so the report may not be accurate. If NHC's "quality control" verifies this is accurate, and not just a convective generated wind, then it should be named a tropical storm.

I'm not sure there is a LLC but here's that ship report you were talking about that was taken at 6z.

C6LU4 06 19.4 -83.6 180 42.0 - - - 29.91

#48 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:34 am

It seems we will have to wait for RECON if anything is going to be upgraded.

#49 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:43 am

djones65 wrote:A ship with identifier C6LU4 reported south winds (180 degrees) at 42 knots about 80 miles east of the center of this tropical disturbance at 0600 UTC. The pressure was 1012 mb (which seems a little high) so the report may not be accurate. If NHC's "quality control" verifies this is accurate, and not just a convective generated wind, then it should be named a tropical storm.

that doesnt seem reasonable based on pressure and sat presentation

hurricanefloyd5 · #50 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:59 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100930
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN ANTONIO AT THE WESTERN
END OF CUBA IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY
BRINGING SQUALLS AND ADDITIONAL RAINS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF CUBA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR CUBA AT ANY TIME TODAY...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

HurricaneHunter914 · #51 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:05 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The cetner looks to have reformed.

Zadok · #52 Postby **Zadok** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:09 am

Convection seems to be coming together again.

HurricaneHunter914 · #53 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:14 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Even though the convection is really firing, this system will have a hard time getting into the GOM if this shear doesn't decrease.

#54 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:15 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The cetner looks to have reformed.

i suggest you dont try and find "centers" on very weak systems using IR. the convection is east big time but that doesnt mean the center has reformed east.

jlauderdal

#55 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:15 am

You can't find the center on a system this weak using IR imagery. It could be hundredxs of miles from that red blob and you'd never be able to tell at night with just satellite.

I'll be heading in to the office shortly. Will post some GARP images of high-res visible with surface obs if/when I get a chance. I ran GARP from home a few minutes ago and can see that if there's any center, it's north of 20N just south of the western tip of Cuba. The buoy near 20N/85W shifted to a SW or W wind a few hours ago and a ship near the western tip of Cuba is reporting an east wind of 35 kts with a pressure of 1000.4 mb. Now, as a marine meteorologist for many years, I know that ships at sea should rarely be trusted to keep their barometers calibrated or to measure the wind correctly. In many cases, they forget to subtract the forward speed of the ship from the wind speed. So I don't think this disturbance is anywhere near a TS. But there are signs that it has a broad center of circulation, possibly near 20.5 or 21N and 85W.

#56 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:16 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Even though the convection is really firing, this system will have a hard time getting into the GOM if this shear doesn't decrease.

how much shear are you seeing in the gulf that will disrupt the system?

Thunder44 · #57 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:24 am

From looking at obs over Western Carribean and IR-2 imagery. It's looks like the center is still a little broad and is on the western edge of that blob of convection exploding, just south of the western tip of Cuba moving north. It's already north of buoy 42056 where there is a west wind now. There seems to be some shear as the convection seems be blowing up in more linear pattern to the NNE, but I don't think it will be enough to prevent it from developing to a TD or weak TS this weekend.

HurricaneHunter914 · #58 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:25 am

jlauderdal wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Even though the convection is really firing, this system will have a hard time getting into the GOM if this shear doesn't decrease.

how much shear are you seeing in the gulf that will disrupt the system?

I said it will have a hard time getting into the gulf. If you clicked on the link you can see that high shear in the lower part of the Gulf.

#59 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:28 am

Shear looks to be quite high on my 2-day WV loop. The system looks like a hybrid low, attached to the cold front off the east U.S. coast. You can clearly see the frontal boundary extending into the NW Caribbean and a wave developing on the front (the disturbance). Doesn't look very tropical.

HurricaneHunter914 · #60 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:32 am

Are you talking about 90L because it looks plenty tropical to me.

Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9

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