Tropical Storm Alberto

#21 Postby **hiflyer** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:32 am

May I suggest you look at the radar on the west end?

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

#22 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:32 am

If it says TD1 on the NRL then this should be TD1. Have the 1200 GMT SHIP and DSHIP models come out yet as these should then say TD 1 on them.

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:36 am

P.K. wrote:If it says TD1 on the NRL then this should be TD1. Have the 1200 GMT SHIP and DSHIP models come out yet as these should then say TD 1 on them.

Yes Peter,normally being that way it is a TD or Storm but in this case I would be cautious until a text Statement is released.

rockyman · #24 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:36 am

Morning synoptics:

Positive for Development:
LL Convergence http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html
UL Divergence http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html
Water Temperature
Persistent low level center for days

Negative for Development:
Wind Shear to north of Yucatan Channel (30knots) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Land Interaction

rockyman · #25 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:38 am

I'm guessing the first few visibles and maybe a ship report caused the NRL upgrade...I'd be surprised if NHC waited for recon.

#26 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:39 am

10/1145 UTC 21.1N 86.0W T1.5/1.5 01L

Tampa_God · #27 Postby **Tampa_God** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:39 am

Is the shear suppose to die down at anytime? I want to call this thing a TD or even Alberto, but don't have much back-up to claim it, so I'll wait. Hope to get something by 11 am.

Stratusxpeye · #28 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:40 am

Impressive so far

Nimbus · #29 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:49 am

Buoy 42056 located near 20N 85W reported a surface pressure of 1004 earlier this morning as the LLC moved north. The winds have shifted from east to west and there appears to be a tighter pressure gradient developing.

Obviously a closed circulation and the NHC should declare at least a TD due to flood risk. The shear is currently pulling a lot of moisture off to the northeast which could cause a flooding in western Cuba and west coast Florida.

I'm still watching to see if high pressure is going to build back in over the southeastern states before I'm sold on a Florida landfall. Recently bought a double wide west of Tampa and said to h#(( with the insurance so i'm prejudiced.

Stratusxpeye · #30 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:51 am

TD #1 IS OFFICIAL!!!!!! JUST NOW

#31 Postby **drezee** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:52 am

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

823
WTNT31 KNHC 101246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

#32 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:55 am

A lot of rain heading for Florida (4 -8") as stated in the Tropical depression bulliten.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Robert 8-)

wxwatcher91 · #33 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:56 am

ok so currently we are losing to 2005 by 40 hours :lol:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

wzrgirl1 · #34 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:57 am

TampaFl wrote:A lot of rain heading for Florida (4 -8") as stated in the Tropical depression bulliten.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Robert

especially west central florida..........be careful what you wish for. you might end up making up your deficit in two days and then some

#35 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:59 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:ok so currently we are losing to 2005 by 40 hours

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

I'm impressed that we are losing to the mighty 2005 by just 40 hours!!!

#36 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:00 am

i was looking at the new rainfall probs for Sunday and Monday and in fact, South Florida is excepted to get more rain than the Tampa Bay area!

#37 Postby **drezee** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:01 am

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... CCA23.KNHC

Rainfall estimates

AS we were talking about earlier, the NHC discounted the pressure readings from those ships as they set the pressure at 1003MB.

#38 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:02 am

Is this an error or do we have 2 centers http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html
Check out the pressure.

mtm4319 · #39 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:06 am

Let's see if I was the first person to make a TD1 forecast map... :lol:

(this is the NHC track)

canegrl04 · #40 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:06 am

TD or not TD.That is the question :lol:

Tropical Storm Alberto

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