MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0424 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN  AND WRN KY...SERN IL...SRN IN...WRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447...
   
   VALID 072124Z - 072300Z
   
   BANDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SEWD WITH HAIL ARE MOVING
   SEWD AT 25-30 KT. ONE OF THE LARGER BAND OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM SE
   OF LUK TO NEAR OWB...WHILE ANOTHER BAND EXTENDED FROM NEAR FDY SWWD
   EAST OF IND. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
   1500 AND 2000 J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH
   SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE
   ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND THIS WOULD BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH SOME WIND DAMAGE.
   
   DUE TO LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KY...
   EXPECT SEVERE THREAT WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF CURRENT WW.
   HOWEVER.. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WWD FROM FDY-IND
   THUNDERSTORM LINE AND MOVE SEWD THROUGH WW.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
   
   37248837 39048692 40418500 40918504 41508411 40998350
   40178345 38898389 37238666 36748823

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1099
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD AND NRN NE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...
   
   VALID 072220Z - 072345Z
   
   STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   ACROSS WW 449...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CDR AND BUB IN NRN NEB.
   
   TWO SUPERCELLS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT
   THAT EXTENDED FROM CDR ESEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL NEB. DESPITE SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 50S...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN
   MLCAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE WARM
   SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM THE
   STORMS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
   BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ROTATE GIVEN THE 50 KT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR...BUT THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
   DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. ALSO...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO PROVIDE
   FOCUS FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THEN ESEWD
   THROUGH THE SAME AREAS WITH A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
   AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
   EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   41889911 41890135 42060396 42700390 44040383 44230084
   44269938 43379919

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 072301Z - 080000Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF WRN
   AND MIDDLE TN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   BE ISOLATED WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT...SO A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   AN ISOLATED INTENSE STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 15 N OF HOP MOVING SSEWD
   AT 20 KT. THIS STORM IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT
   EXTENDED FROM NRN KY SWWD INTO EXTREME NWRN TN. A NARROW AXIS OF
   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WAS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RESULTING
   IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF TN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
   THE RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE EXPECTED
   BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH THE STORMS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
   EVENING.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   35798982 36508862 36668784 36608623 35858719 35568897

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARIZONA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448...
   
   VALID 072330Z - 080100Z
   
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
   THE WATCH AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   LEAD STORMS ARE APPROACHING PHX AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH
   WHILE SOME NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
   AZ.
   
   MLCAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 750 J/KG IN CURRENT SPC MESO ANALYSIS AND
   MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40KT EVIDENT IN TUS VAD WIND PROFILE
   CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE STORMS..WHICH HAVE SO FAR MAINTAINED A
   CELLULAR STRUCTURE AND HAVE NOT ORGANIZED INTO A LARGER MESOSCALE
   SYSTEM WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL. DESPITE
   CURRENT LACK OF STRONG MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION..STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WITH DCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG INDICATES THAT THE THREAT FOR
   LOCALIZED SEVERE WINDS CONTINUES WITH STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..SCHNEIDER.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   31390905 31321016 31701222 32911313 34001323 33971190
   34401139 33990998 33560905 32790905

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ID...SWRN AND CENTRAL MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450...
   
   VALID 072355Z - 080100Z
   
   WW 450 IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z...WITH GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   LOCATED IN A SMALL PORTION OF ID...NEAR THE SWRN MT BORDER...NEWD
   INTO SWRN MT WEST OF BIL.
   
   STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN
   ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS NEAR 40 KT. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN EXTENSIVE
   MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
   WW...AND THIS MAY INHIBIT STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...A NARROW
   REGION OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM
   NEAR DLN NEWD TO BIL. THE ENVIRONMENT OF BETTER SUITED FOR STORMS TO
   
   INTENSIFY ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND THE
   STEEP LAPSE RATES/DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE HAIL/
   WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
   
   46681375 47601290 47561083 47710865 45150846 45021052
   44511152 44271358 45061482

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1103
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 449...
   
   VALID 080042Z - 080215Z
   
   SEVERE STORM MOVING TOWARD LBF...WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   A LARGE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES NE OF
   LBF AND WAS MOVING/DEVELOPING SSWWD AT 15-20 KT. DESPITE 40 DEGREE
   SPREADS AT THE SFC ON THE LBF EVENING SOUNDING...STEEP LAPSE RATES
   ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WERE RESULTING IN MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000
   J/KG. A STRONG OUTFLOW HAS BEEN LOCATED AHEAD OF THE STORM MOST OF
   THE EVENING...AND THE STRONG COLD DOWNDRAFT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
   UPDRAFT BASE ABOVE THIS COLD OUTFLOW. A WIND OR HAIL THREAT IS
   EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
   WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER SWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT.
   HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL OVER THE COLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS SLOW MOVING CONVECTION...WITH THE
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
   
   41300105 41760077 41749969 40619986 40790110

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 AM CDT THU JUN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081550Z - 081745Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
   PARTS OF S FL. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED
   BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS S FL WITH STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
   AROUND 2000 J/KG...BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MORNING
   RAOB DATA FROM MIAMI SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
   VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES CUMULUS INCREASING S OF LAKE
   OKEECHOBEE. THE WEAK CAP...STRONG HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
   OVER S FL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE
   CHARACTERIZED BY ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE MODEST 20 KT MID LEVEL WLY
   FLOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES AROUND 30
   KT...GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...A FEW
   STORMS COULD DEVELOP MODEST MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   25298039 25438121 26738176 27158027 26208009

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1105
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 PM CDT THU JUN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN SC...CNTRL AND ERN NC AND CNTRL
   THROUGH SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081719Z - 081945Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   FROM THE CNTRL ERN CAROLINAS INTO CNTRL AND SERN VA. ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MIGHT BE
   NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY 18Z-19Z.
   
   PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
   60S EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA E OF LEE TROUGH. THE
   ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.
   MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS TO BELOW
   1000 J/KG FARTHER W WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5
   C/KM. STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITHIN ZONE
   OF ENHANCED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SEWD ADVANCING VORT MAX CURRENTLY
   OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
   EXIST OVER SC INTO SRN PARTS OF NC WHERE A MODEST MID LEVEL JET
   ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SEWD THIS
   AFTERNOON. A FEW SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVER SC INTO SERN NC WITH MOSTLY MULTICELLS EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE REMAINDER OF NC INTO VA.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   33207948 32798093 33938113 36097961 37407860 37467663
   35217618

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 PM CDT THU JUN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN MT AND NWRN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081818Z - 082015Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER PARTS OF
   NWRN WY THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
   AREA BY 19-20Z.
   
   
   ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS IN POST FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF
   CNTRL AND ERN MT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING
   MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG FROM CNTRL MT SEWD INTO A PORTION OF
   NRN WY. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MT
   AND NRN WY AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
   NEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SWRN MT. VERTICAL WIND
   PROFILES VEERING FROM SELY NEAR THE SURFACE TO SSWLY 30 KT AT 6 KM
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   44710834 45601030 48071039 47290645 45090608

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1107
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CDT THU JUN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 082005Z - 082200Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH SERN ID THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. OVERALL THREAT DOES
   NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN
   ID SPREADING NWD INTO THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. FARTHER N...TEMPORARY
   SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF VORT MAX MOVING INTO SWRN MT IS RESULTING IN
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN AREAS N AND W OF IDAHO FALLS WITH MLCAPE
   FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP NEWD IN THIS
   AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
   AND AS SUBSIDENCE ZONE LIFTS FARTHER NE. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE
   SURFACE TO 6 KM LAYER AROUND 30 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELLS...
   WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...
   
   44071110 43361154 42861332 43171399 44281312 44501142

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1108
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT THU JUN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451...
   
   VALID 082037Z - 082230Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG NUMEROUS SURFACE
   BOUNDARIES WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT MAX MOVING
   SEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STORMS OVER CNTRL NC HAVE
   ORGANIZED INTO LINES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MAY
   UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO ERN NC WHERE SLIGHTLY
   GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXIST. VERTICAL WIND
   PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELLS OVER NC. HOWEVER...A BAND OF
   STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   SPREAD SEWD THROUGH SC. THIS MAY RESULT IN 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION OVER
   PORTIONS OF SC. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   33538129 34028065 35457929 36507861 36227654 34837685
   33028027

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT THU JUN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD INTO THE NEB PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 082206Z - 082300Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING.  GREATEST
   THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WRN SD WHICH WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   WW.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR SHR WITH
   ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH W-CNTRL
   SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB.  A LEE TROUGH WAS ALSO IDENTIFIED FROM THIS LOW
   PRESSURE SWD ALONG THE WY/SD/NEB BORDER TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
   OVER NERN CO.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS/CB
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LEE TROUGH FROM CAMPBELL/CROOK COUNTIES IN
   NERN WY INTO THE FAR WRN NEB PNHDL.  HERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
   THROUGH THE 80S INTO LOWER 90S WHICH IS RESULTING IN A DEEPLY MIXED
   AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000
   J/KG.
   
   IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED /POSSIBLY
   SUPERCELLULAR/ STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER W-CNTRL AND SWRN SD
   WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LOCALLY STRONGER
   INSTABILITY.  MOREOVER...BACKED SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
   FROM CDR NWD TO RAP BENEATH 30 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
   RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION.
   
   FARTHER S ACROSS THE NEB PNHDL...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   MORE ISOLATED WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD BEING LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   43610442 44580448 45010372 44660236 43370159 41590201
   41010306 41110404

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CDT THU JUN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 082249Z - 082345Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST
   INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 02 OR 03Z.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 2240Z...CLEVELAND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING SWD
   FROM WRN LAKE ERIE ACROSS SANDUSKY...SENECA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN
   N-CNTRL OH.  SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
   UPPER JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES.  WHILE
   INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   
   IT APPEARS THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY
   WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING
   WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY
   LAYER.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   41518351 41878306 41868199 41378124 40508120 39958164
   39858242 39948301 40168336

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CDT THU JUN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS NC/SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451...
   
   VALID 082353Z - 090130Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE THROUGH 02-03Z.  GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
   NATURE OF THIS THREAT...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 2345Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED ROUGHLY A 150 MILE
   LINE OF TSTMS FROM NEAR GSB TO 35 W CRE MOVING 270/25-30 KTS.
   EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS CURRENT MOTION TAKES THE MAJORITY OF THIS
   ACTIVITY TO THE COAST BETWEEN 0100-0130Z...EXCEPT FOR E-CNTRL/NERN
   NC WHERE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z OVER THE OUTER
   BANKS.
   
   PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST WITH MLCAPES
   OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...PRESENCE OF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL AND RELATIVELY STRONG
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NC
   PIEDMONT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE
   HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...
   
   33477986 34157902 35047798 35567802 35737723 35407579
   34577593 33107782 32627865 32697973

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0810 PM CDT THU JUN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT INTO SWRN ND AND NWRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452...
   
   VALID 090110Z - 090245Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE BEYOND 02Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 0055Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SUPERCELL /LIKELY
   HIGH PRECIPITATION IN CHARACTER/ MOVING INTO SWRN CUSTER COUNTY IN
   SERN MT.  AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WAS ALSO LOCATED
   OVER PHILLIPS AND GARFIELD COUNTIES...FARTHER TO THE NW.
   MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CUSTER COUNTY SUPERCELL LOCATED JUST TO
   THE N OF A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE
   BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.
   
   00Z RAP SOUNDING APPEARS SOMEWHAT REPRESENTATIVE OF NEAR-STORM
   ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
   ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD RAPIDLY
   INCREASE.  DYNAMIC NON-HYDROSTATIC VERTICAL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
   SUFFICIENTLY OVERCOME THIS INCREASING INHIBITION...SUSTAINING THE
   CUSTER COUNTY STORM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN OR BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE STRENGTHENING
   CAP.
   
   AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 02-04Z OVER
   SERN MT INTO NWRN SD/SWRN ND AS SELY LLJ STRENGTHENS...ENHANCING
   WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT N OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
    INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
   45580693 46220645 46730487 46570328 45940250 45140249
   44540335 45160566

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NJ...NRN MD...NRN DEL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091651Z - 091845Z
   
   THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
   PA AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NRN MD...NRN DEL AND NJ NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.
   
   A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER CNTRL PA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
   -16 C AT 500 MB WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES AS AN UPPER
   JET SHIFTS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO WRN PA THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 50S AND THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
   LAYER AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING
   THE SEWD ADVANCING MID LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN W OF THE THERMAL
   TROUGH...SUGGESTING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER.
   HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
   THREAT FOR HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
   
   41207565 40437437 39567448 39497552 39737738 41067821
   41847738

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID...FAR WRN WY AND SWRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091800Z - 092000Z
   
   CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
   PLAINS AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RIVER RANGE...AND OVER FAR
   SCENTRAL ID. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSES WILL SUPP0RT THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
   AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WHILE
   MOVING NEWD EVENTUALLY INTO FAR WRN WY/SWRN MT. AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NERN NV WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO SERN ID/WRN
   WY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
   IN AREAS THAT WERE RECEIVING AMPLE SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THIS
   FEATURE...MAINLY THE LOWER-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE ERN
   SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RIVER RANGE IN FAR ERN ID. STORMS HAVE ALSO
   SHOWN SOME INTENSIFICATION RECENTLY OVER SCENTRAL ID JUST AHEAD OF
   THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. 12Z BOI SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY DEEP
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH WELL MIXED DWPTS IN THE
   LOWER 50S. RESULTANT MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL. LOCAL HAIL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES AROUND 1 INCH HAIL
   POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED IN THE SNAKE RIVER
   VALLEY FOR A WEAK/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AS REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN STRONG FLOW OVER
   SRN GREAT BASIN AND ERN ORE...SUFFICIENT FOCUS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
   TROUGH MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...
   
   45761168 44541318 43221465 42471457 42041375 42151196
   42761094 43151060 44511033 45331011 45791051

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL AND NERN WY...SWRN SD...NWRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091844Z - 092045Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NERN WY
   THROUGH SWRN SD INTO NWRN NEB. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN WY SEWD THROUGH NWRN NEB THEN EWD
   TO A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD. A
   RESERVOIR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
   RESIDES OVER THE DAKOTAS. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE FRONT WILL
   HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AS FAR W AS NERN WY...WHILE S
   OF THIS BOUNDARY  MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
   INTO THE 40S. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM
   1000 TO 1500 J/KG ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
   CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD THROUGH WY ALONG
   NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER
   THE BLACK HILLS REGION OF WRN SD. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN UPSLOPE REGIME OF NERN WY
   AND SPREAD ESEWD. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY 30 KT AT 500
   MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW...
   
   41900086 41550158 42140365 43530614 44280634 44590539
   44030350 43280247 42530092

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NV...WRN/NRN UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091917Z - 092115Z
   
   A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   INTENSIFY AND GROW IN COVERAGE WHILE MOVING INTO WRN UT OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL STRONG-SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ECENTRAL
   NV/WCENTRAL UT ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM NEAR EKO SEWD TO
   MILLARD COUNTY UT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR /DUE TO PRESENCE OF 30-40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW/ SHOULD SUPPORT
   AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...
   
   40751291 41981456 41571616 40011605 38601526 38051443
   37991332 38211147 38551079 40001085 40791182

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO AND NWRN/NCENTRAL NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091927Z - 092200Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NCENTRAL NM NWD INTO ERN
   UT/WRN CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE
   MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE AREA.
   
   MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AHEAD
   OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN NV/WRN UT. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
   EXIST /MLCAPES UP FROM 750-1000 J/KG/ AS REMNANT LOW-MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE REMAINS IN A TRANSITION OUT OF MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN.
   COMBINATION OF MODERATE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
   SOME MARGINAL SVR THREAT. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
   DCAPE /1100 J/KG / WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND
   THREAT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL SHEAR.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
   
   38240598 39610685 40340800 40180980 39271081 38491105
   37770996 37070942 35870862 35320779 35290685 35390601
   36480533