AFD's From Areas That TS Alberto Could Threaten

[brunota2003]

I noticed yesterday all of the AFD's (Area Forecast Discussion) that were being posted were pretty interesting, however were being buried under all of the posting that was going on, so decided to make this and give it a whirl to see if it works, this way we can get the AFD's and actually be able to read them...starting off first, Long Term Discussion from Newport/Morehead City, NC AFD:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
WIDE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO AN EXPECTED GOM
LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE GFDL/GFS CONTINUE TO RACE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
FL THEN ALONG THE NC COAST TUE/TUE NIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
RELIABLE MODELS SUCH AS THE CANADIAN AND UKMET NOW ARE SUGGESTING
THAT THE LOW IF IT DEVELOPS...WILL TEND TO LINGER LONGER IN THE
GOM. THESE SAME MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING THAT A WEAKNESS BETWEEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WILL SERVE AS A CONDUIT FOR COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL...I WILL
CARRY BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE POPS THROUGH WED.

my area is thinking potentital brush for now...but the NHC at this moment has it passing over Cape Hatteras, which is just east of me...

[N2FSU]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED SOUTH OF WESTERN END OF CUBA...


BEYOND TODAY...EYES LOOKING SOUTH AT NEWLY FORMED AND INITIAL 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. LATEST NHC AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ELONGATED N-S LOW LEVEL CENTER ABOUT 50 MILES S/SW OF CABO SAN
ANTONIO AT THE WESTERN END OF CUBA AND MOVING NW AROUND 12 MPH.
DEPRESSION ON E SIDE OF H5-H2 LOW CENTERED OVER SRN GULF OF MEX.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE...NOGAPS AND ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM GOING
NNW TODAY AND THEN SPLIT INTO MULTIPLE LOWS. CANADIAN MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND STALLS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET AND NAM TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERN
GULF. GFS AND GFDL MOVE IT NNW INTO THE S/CENTRAL GULF EARLY SUNDAY
AND IN 48 HRS BEGIN TO HOOK IT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS AND GFDL PLACE 50 KT STORM VCNTY OF THE CEDAR KEY AREA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO FAR...THE
GFS/GFDL MODEL SEEMS TO BE FAVORED SINCE THEY HAVE HAD THE BEST
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AND MATCH WELL WITH EARLY SEASON TROPICAL
CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGY. THIS IS ALSO THE GUIDANCE FROM THE NHC/
MID-RANGE CONFERENCE CALL. SO WE WILL FOLLOW THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS
FOR NOW.

MODELS AGREE THAT CYCLONE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG H2 WLYS
BETWEEN TROUGH OVER E COAST AND H2 ANTICYCLONE OVER CARIBBEAN.
FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY LARGELY DETERMINED BY 1)STRENGTH OF ATLC
RIDGE AND ASSOCD STRENGTH OF WESTERLY FLOW AND ABILITY TO INITIALLY
GUIDE STORM WNW AND TO SHEAR OFF STORM AND LIMIT INTENSIFICATION
AND...2)FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ABOVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA AND EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND REACH OHIO VALLEY
IN 36 TO 48 HRS. THIS WILL LARGELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHIFTING
FUTURE ALBERTO FROM NNW TO NE TRACK.

BASED ON CURRENT NHC TRACK...DEPRESSION WILL GROW INTO TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO AND REACH WEST COAST OF FLA..AROUND CEDAR KEY IN 72
HRS WITH 50 KT WINDS GUSTING TO 60 KTS. THIS WOULD PLACE CWA ON WEAK
WIND SIDE WITH 34 KT WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 30 MILES NW OF STORM.
FOLLOWING GFS/GFDL...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS..MAX TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY SE THIRD OF CWA. MAIN IMPACT FROM DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT OVER OFFSHORE WATERS AND SPREAD TO OVER LAND
ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN AND WINDS...WITH SE TO NW GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT PROJECTION...GFS FORECASTS QUITE A BIT OF
SOUTHWEST SHEAR OVER THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE IN THE GULF.
THIS SHOULD YIELD THE VERY DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SINCE WE
WOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE. SO UNTIL I SEE MODELS CONVERGING...
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR POPS AND WINDS NOT VERY HIGH.

[yzerfan]

NWS MOBILE/PENSACOLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...GENERALLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TODAY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOMEWHAT ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STILL NOT MUCH TO PEG THE
FORECAST ON PER THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM NHC REMAINS
WATCHFUL FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS YET TO FORM
AS OF THIS ISSUANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY
WIDELY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
TODAY AND CURVE TO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF ON MONDAY. USED THIS
SCENARIO FOR THIS PACKAGE AS A BASIS FOR WIND DIRECTION WHICH ALSO
KEEPS RAIN CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29

&&

.MARINE....HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AND MERGE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY WITH THIS PASSING
SYSTEM. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS CONTINUED TO VERIFY LOWER THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY DUE TO DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY.
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS LOWER FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SIMILAR
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CORRESPONDINGLY WILL FALL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WELL IN
EXCESS OF FOUR HOURS TODAY. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON
SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. /29

[wxwatcher91]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE SHORT TERM..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
531 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. MODEL SUITE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND ITS
POTENTIAL MOVEMENT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE ECMWF AND NAM.

TO START OFF...THE LOW OFF THE MAINE COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST...FINALLY...TAKING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL WITH
IT. WILL STILL CARRY CHANCE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF A WORCESTER TO BOSTON LINE EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WOBBLES WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS FINALLY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING SLOWLY
BUILDING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.

WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW...AS A WEAK
TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
STALLS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TRIES
TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ACTUALLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE
PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROFFING
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MODEL SUITE SOLUTIONS HAVE DIFFERING IDEAS ABOUT WHETHER SHORT WAVES
DEVELOP AND DIG DOWN THE COAST BEYOND MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG
POTENTIAL IMPACT IF ONE TROUGH IN PARTICULAR...SUGGESTED TO DIG
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...COULD
CAPTURE A DEVELOPING LOW WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT TRACKS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST...LED BY THE GFS ALONG WITH THE GFDL...DIGS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CAPTURE THE LOW AND BRING
IT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO ONLY AFFECT THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE WEDNESDAY-
EARLY THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO MADE ONLY A FEW TIMING CHANGES. THE SECOND
SOLUTIONS...FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE CANADIAN GLOBAL GEM AND THE
NAM/WRF...KEEP THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM DOWN IN THE GULF AS THE TROUGH
WILL NOT DIG ENOUGH TO CAPTURE THIS. SOMETHING TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE
EYE ON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ALL THE STANDING WATER THATS AROUND
THE AREA NOW. PLEASE REFER TO DISCUSSIONS FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

IF THE GFS DOES COME TO FRUITION...IT WILL HELP FINALLY KICK THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD...THOUGH NOT UNTIL THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THIS COULD ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO FINALLY WORK INTO THE
REGION. THERE ARE A FEW SIGNS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TRYING TO GET
GOING ON THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEANS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

one thing to note is that while all the other places that have TD 1 mentioned in their AFD have a fire section, we have a hydrology section... New England would have some flooding for sure if TD 1/Alberto came here.

[wxwatcher91]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER TRICKY FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH OF THE FORECAST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ONE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THIS LOOKS TO BE
HAPPENING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...
WHICH WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MODEL WAS ALSO
CHOSEN FOR ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. TPC AND HPC FORECASTS ALSO
MIRRORED THE 10/06Z GFS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

TPC EXPECTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE
REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. EITHER WAY...LOOKING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT BASED UPON THE LATEST
TRACK. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...AND ALL ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY USED THE GFS MOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
THEN FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE AFTER THAT TIME.

[Coredesat]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 102008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...VERY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS AFTN ACRS THE REGION...NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED THE DEW
PTS TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPR 30S IN NRN VA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST 50S INTO THE CAROLINAS NEAR THE STALLED FRONT. OTHER AREA OF
INTEREST CONCERNS 1ST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON NEAR
YUCATAN IN SRN GULF OF MEX. (SEE LATEST FCST FROM NHC/TPC FOR
DETAILS). FOR TONIGHT...DECENT WARM ADVECTION IN 800-900 MB
LEVEL...SHOULD BRING A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY LATER
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHC LOOK LMTD UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNGT
DUE TO DRY AIR IN LOW LVLS. HAVE MENTION TSTMS FOR SW ZONES MAINLY
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF THE FRONT.

SUN/MON...WK BNDRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS SRN PORTION OF THE
CWA...WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT...SLGT RISK FOR SVR ACRS EXTREME SW
ZONES/INLAND NC...SHEAR IS DECENT BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED
(GNRLY MORE UNSTABLE FARTHER SOUTH IN CNRTL NC). HAVE LEFT FCST
DRY SUN/MON IN MD WELL NORTH OF THE BNDRY/WITH HIGHEST POPS (40-
50%) ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. GFS/NAM IN POOR AGREEMENT MONDAY...SIDED
WITH DRIER SOLN WITH THINKING THAT SUBSIDENCE AROUND NRN PERIPHERY
OF TD1 WILL KEEP MOST OF CWA DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH BEST CHC
PRECIP AGAIN SRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...COMPLEX FCST THAT WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON TRACK OF TD1...LATEST GDNC/TRACK FROM NHC/TPC HAS
THE STORM BEING ABSORBED INTO MEAN TROF ACRS ERN 1/3
CONUS...PUSHING THE LOW UP THE COAST...AFFECTING MID ATLC MAINLY
TUE/ERLY WED. HAVE 30-50% POPS IN TUE NGT/WED MRNG (HIGHEST SE
ZONES). KEPT DIURNAL AFTN/EVENG 20-30% POPS IN FCST THU INTO SAT
WITH NEAR NRML TEMPS.

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 110132
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION #1 MOVES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF...

.UPDATE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS LEAD
TO SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE THEN MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TD #1 MEANDERS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR STORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ZONES (88D ALREADY DEPICTING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFF THE SW FL COAST) THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH THIS
CONVECTION SPREADING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ONGOING FORECAST/GRIDS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND UNLESS WATCHES
ARE POSTED LATER TONIGHT...NO EVENING ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A CLOUDY AND WET DAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AS DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FROM TD #1 CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EVOLUTION AND EXACT TRACK OF TD #1 WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH
OF AN IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER DURING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TD #1 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. FOR THE LATEST ON TD #1 SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS TD #1
DRIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. GIVEN THIS WILL RAISE EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAGS FOR THESE WATERS IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE ~1030
PM TONIGHT. WIND/SEA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS TD #1 MOVE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS. ALL MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH END OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
RULE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS TD 1 MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...WILL
SEE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW LATE MORNING...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WILL ALSO SEE CIRRUS
THICKEN AND LOWER. BY LATE AFTN COULD SEE ANOTHER OUTER BAND MOVE
THRU WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS. HAVE PUT IN PROB30`S
FOR TPA AND PIE FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER BANDS...BUT WILL KEEP VCTS
OR VCSH ELSEWHERE FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.



&&

[brunota2003]

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TUE. IT NOW APPEARS THAT TD
#1 IF IT SURVIVES...WILL BE SLOWER TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GOM. BASED
ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS I HAVE DECREASED POPS TO CHANCE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED OTHER THAN TO DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE
WED...BECAUSE OF ALL THE UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO TD #1. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE ESTRN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
SO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED.

[brunota2003]

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE INIT AS
TRACK/INTENSITY OF T.S. ALBERTO IN DOUBT. KEPT CHCY POPS GOING TUE
AND TUE NIGHT HOWEVER IF NAM CORRECT COULD BE A BIT DRIER AS UPPER
TRF AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE OFFSHR. KEPT LOW LIKELY POPS CST TO CHC
INLAND WED WHEN TPC TRACK OF ALBERTO IS CLOSEST TO THE CST. KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS IN WED NIGHT AND THU IN WAKE OF ALBERTO THEN DRY
REMAINDER OF PD. WENT WITH HPC GDNCE TEMPS.

[wxwatcher91]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE. QUITE A CHANGE IN THE 11/12Z MODELS FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
INCARNATIONS. LATEST MODELS STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY.

THE 11/12Z GFS...AND PARTICULARLY THE 11/12Z GGEM...DEPICT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE
EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND THAT TIME. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDOING THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND AMPLIFYING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF T.S. ALBERTO TOO MUCH.
TPC FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 11/06Z GFS...WHICH WAS THE
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR CONTINUITY AND A DECENT COMPROMISE SOLUTION.

THE NAM AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE MUCH MORE BENIGN...BUT STILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS AT SOME POINT IN TIME. RATHER THAN BLANKET A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...CONFINED HIGHEST CHANCES TO
THE DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DESPITE
THE UNCERTAINTY.

USED A BLEND OF THE 11/12Z FWC/MET AND 11/06Z MAV FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...USED A BLEND OF THE HPC GUIDANCE AND
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WERE CLOSE.

[Cookiely]

Hurricane Local Statement

TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055-060>062-065-120330-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE...
CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...SARASOTA...MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NON COASTAL
AND NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...SUMTER
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEE...
CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...MANATEE...
PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...LEVY
AND SUMTER COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 415 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. ALBERTO WAS MOVING NORTH AT 7 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...WINDS...
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE RAIN BANDS FROM ALBERTO BLOW THROUGH. COASTAL AREAS
COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 BY NOON TUESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM ALBERTO
COULD CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH THROUGH CEDAR
KEY. THE STORM SURGE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE ALBERTO MAKES
LANDFALL COULD REACH 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
TOTAL RAIN FALL THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 4 TO 8 INCHES. RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE GROUND TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO THROUGH TUESDAY.

...BEACH EROSION...
SWELLS FROM ALBERTO WILL CAUSE BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET THROUGH
MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS A DISORGANIZED STORM AND FUTURE FORECASTS
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING LOCATION. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

...NEXT STATEMENT...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1115 PM THIS EVENING.

$$
NOAH






Inland Tropical Storm Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
524 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

.TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST
FOR LOCATIONS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD BEGINNING MONDAY
EVENING. THESE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST
THE POINT WHEN ALBERTO MOVES ASHORE SOME TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-120330-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TI.A.0001.060611T2124Z-060613T0900Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN
524 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE NATURE COAST AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THUS INLAND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY
AREA COULD SEE SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AT OR ABOVE 39 MPH...BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING AND LASTING
UNTIL ALBERTO MOVES ASHORE AND STARTS TO WEAKEN.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

$$

[brunota2003]

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ARE OUR CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM...THEN OUR FOCUS TURNS TO TS ALBERTO AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK
AND INTENSITY.

THROUGH THIS EVENING A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED WEST AND
NORTH OF EASTERN NC THIS MORNING...WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE UPPER PATTERN
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE INTO THE
MID ATLC BY THIS EVENING PRODUCING STRONG...DEEP ASCENT ACROSS ALL
OF EASTERN NC. MODERATE SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS BUT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (5-6C/KM) AND
LACK OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR SUGGEST LOW (<1000 J/KG)...SKINNY CAPES.
THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS ALOFT (500 MB -8/-9) AND
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS SUPPORT A LESSER THREAT OF SEVERE WX THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH ISOLD MARGINAL EVENTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS. EASTERN NC WILL
BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE. PW WATERS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
AS A SFC WAVE WORKS NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
PRODUCING NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DIVERGENT
THICKNESS PATTERN AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY SUPPORT
TRAINING OF CELLS WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES ARE
LIKELY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. THE WRF
MODEL HANGS UP THE FRONT ALONG THE SE COAST AND PRODUCES OVER 4
INCHES OF RAIN. THE GFS PRODUCES QPF OVER 3 INCHES. THE FASTER NAM
HAS LIGHTER PCPN AMOUNTS BUT STILL SUPPORTS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
WHILE THE FASTER NAM MAY BE CLOSER TO THE TRUTH SPEED WISE OF THE
FRONT...WE DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AS THE FRONT
COULD GET HUNG UP FOR AWHILE IN THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUE ENDING THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS.

THE 00Z RUNS HAVE TAKEN A LEFTWARD TRACK WITH TS ALBERTO KEEPING
THE SYSTEM ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MAIN
THREAT WILL BE ON WED. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE I
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON TUE TO 20% AS DRIER AIR BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. IF ALBERTO TRACKS CLOSE TO LATEST GUID PACKAGE THEN
ESTRN NC WOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINS ON WED. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NHC FOR THE LATEST ON TS ALBERTO.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WITH FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER HAZARDS...LITTLE TIME WAS SPENT ON THE MED RANGE THIS
MORNING (BEYOND WED) WITH NO CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS.

Also, Interesting to note, even though Alberto is going to hit us on Wednesday, they already have the forecast for wednesday as Rainy with winds 18-23 with gusts as high as 41 MPH...crazy!!!

[Stratusxpeye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
640 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 700 AM EDT

* AT 640 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER WAUCHULA...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
ZOLFO SPRINGS BY 640 AM EDT.
WAUCHULA BY 645 AM EDT.
FORT GREEN BY 700 AM EDT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...
SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH...OR LOW SPOT...AND COVER YOUR HEAD
WITH YOUR HANDS.


&&

LAT...LON 2739 8195 2740 8174 2763 8173 2763 8197

[HurricaneHunter914]

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

With a windfeild like that Alberto can threaten most of northern and central FL in a jiffy.

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 120745
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
345 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUES TO BE
RATHER DISORGANIZED...BUT LATEST SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA DO
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF
THE CENTER. ALBERTO IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY. IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME STORM SURGE. LATEST FORECAST FROM HURRICANE
CENTER DOES INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALONG WITH BROADER WIND FIELD WHICH WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS TO THE COAST FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH
DURING MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 80S...AND THEN CLIMB BACK TO ABOUT NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THESE FEATURES SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGH CENTER BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STAY AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOWS AROUND 70 NORTH TO
THE MID 70S COASTAL.

&&

[Stratusxpeye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
646 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 715 AM EDT

* AT 646 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTH OF SARASOTA...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
SIESTA KEY.
CORAL COVE.
VAMO.
SARASOTA.
FRUITVILLE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...
SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH...OR LOW SPOT...AND COVER YOUR HEAD
WITH YOUR HANDS.


&&

LAT...LON 2710 8261 2712 8241 2738 8237 2738 8259

[wxwatcher91]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED LONG TERM..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
557 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE INCREASING ON GENERAL SCENARIO NEXT 7 DAYS VIA 00-06Z/12
NCEP OP RUNS PLUS 18Z/11 GFS ENSEMBLE AND 00Z/12 UKMET/ECMWF.

00Z/12 GFS STILL DROPPING 0.2 TO NEARLY 2" ON SNE THIS WEEK.

FOR ANYTHING ON ALBERTO...PLS SEE TPC.

00Z GGEM IS FINALLY TRENDING EAST A BIT AND A GRAZER HERE NOW.
00Z UK THRU 144 HRS IS A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM BUT IMO JUST A TAD TOO
FAR SE.

18Z/11 AND 00Z/12 GFDL INLAND THEN IDENTICALLY JUST OFF ACK 06Z-12Z
FRI. GFDL NOT MY FAVORITE UP HERE BUT ITS A MEMBER OF THE OPTIONS.

00Z ECMWF IS PROVOCATIVE. THE HOOK IS AN OPTION. SEVERAL GFS MEMBERS
HAD BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN UPPER LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK THE 00Z/12 GFS MEMBERS W THIS OPTION ARE FEWER. STILL...THE UK
AND ECMWF HAVE IT. ALBERTOS REMNANTS AND SMALL PROBABILITY OF A
CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAN CURRENTLY FCST...IS ALL RELATED
TO THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. IF
IT DOESN'T FORM...WHICH IS THE CURRENTLY PROBABILSTIC FAVORED
ROUTE...THEN ALBERTOS CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. IF AN UPPER
LOW FORMS...THEN WE MIGHT SEE SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
SWELLS AFFECT PORTIONS OF SNE SOMETIME LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TO BE DETERMINED.

WEDNESDAY...INCREASED POPS FROM OUR PRIOR FORECAST SINCE SO MANY
MODELS ARE FORECASTING SHOWERS. GFS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DIRECTED
MY EFFORTS TO EXPANDING THUNDER AS A MORE FORMIDABLE WEATHER ELEMENT.
BELIEVE POPS SHOULD BE INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTN PACKAGE.

THURSDAY...INSTABILITY CONTS TO INCREASE AS COLD TROF ALOFT EVOLVES
OVERHEAD. ADDED THUNDER THIS DAY AS WELL BUT NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT
OF THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS THIS DAY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HOPEFULLY ALBERTO HAS DEPARTED AND THE UPPER LOW
DOESN'T FORM. PREDOMINANT GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OPEN UPPER TROUGH
GUIDED THIS OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. BUT...ALL BETS OFF IF THE UPPER
LOW FORMS WITHIN 150 MILES S OF BID.

[angelwing]

FXUS61 KPHI 120837
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
437 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH A TROF
AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN LOW, WHICH I REFERRED TO AS ACADEMIC TO OUR
AREA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, NOW LOOKS TO HAVE A PRACTICAL INFLUENCE
ON OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE MARYLAND
WESTERN SHORE, AND WE NOW CARRY POPS THAT RUN FROM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE NORTHERN DELMARVA TO LIKELY OVER OUR
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS IS NOT AN APPRECIABLE CHANGE FROM THE
FORECAST THAT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDED THIS ONE. IT IS HARD TO FIND
ANY INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH, BUT
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WE DID HOLD SOME MENTION OF THUNDER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES ON H8 DWPTS OF
NEAR 10 DEG C, WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN WE SAW LAST NIGHT
AT THIS TIME, SO SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGRESSIVE, HOWEVER, SO WE STAYED WITH QPF AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH.
FURTHER NORTH, THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROF, THE MODEST INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS, THE
MARGINAL BUT INCREASING MOISTURE, THE WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND PERHAPS
A LTL UPPER SUPPORT FROM A JETLET. WE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE. THERE IS A LTL BIT OF AN HOURGLASS LOOK TO
THE NORTHERN SOUNDINGS, AND WB0 VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW
10K FT, SO ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD GENERATE SOME WIND
GUSTS AND GENERALLY SMALL HAIL. SPC DOES NOT OUTLOOK US AT ALL, SO
WILL CONFINE THIS CONCERN TO A BRIEF MENTION IN THE HWO.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW, WE EXPECT SOME CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS FAR SOUTH WHERE MOST RAIN IS EXPECTED. WE THEREFORE
INSERTED PATCHY FOG.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM, THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF THAT IS SUPPOSED TO PUSH T.S. ALBERTO OUT
TO SEA FROM SOUTH OF HATTERAS NORTHEASTWARD. WE UPPED THE POPS
JUST A LTL FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LTL MORE IMPRESSIVE ON
THE GFS AND THE WRF WITH REGARD TO LIFT, AND THE ETA, GFS AND WRF
ALL GIVE FAIR CAPES.

DID NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS TEMPS TOO MUCH, EXCEPT TO RAISE THEM A LTL
IN THE NORTH AND CUT THEM A LTL IN THE SOUTH TODAY. THE FORMER
TIED TO THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY THAT IS ONLY PARTLY RELATED TO
COOLING ALOFT, AND THE LATTER BECAUSE OF THE IMPENDING CLOUDS AND
RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM. T.S. ALBERTO PRESENTLY FORECAST
TO ONLY GET WITHIN ABOUT 400 MILES OF THE DELMARVA ON THURSDAY.
THE PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE'LL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. THE BEGINNINGS OF A
SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEKEND, PERHAPS
BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS (CI/AC) ORIGINATING WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WV WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SERVE TO BACK THE SFC WINDS AND BRING MORE
MOISTURE TO OUR REGION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER QUITE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CB FROM THE PREVIOUS TAFS (OVER THE SOUTHERN
SITES) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR NOW. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE
BETTER OVER THE SOUTHERN SITES SINCE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE. I DO SEE A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON
EVEN OVER THE NORTH, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MID LEVEL
AIR AND BETTER SFC HEATING TODAY. I MAY THROW A CB GROUP IN THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE 12Z RELEASE. TONIGHT, VFR WITH SCT-BKN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS TODAY. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN (DE) COASTAL WATERS. WINDS,
OVERALL, WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS DIRECTIONS SWITCH AROUND FROM
NW TO SW THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THE WINDS WILL
GO AROUND BACK TO W OR NW ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT THING TO WATCH WILL
BE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE LINGERING
EASTERN TROUGH. ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PASS AROUND
400 MILES EAST OF THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHER NEW JERSEY SHORE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. UNLESS THE TRACK CHANGES, OUR
COASTAL REGIONS WILL MOST LIKELY FEEL SOME SWELLS WITH THE STORM
AND WINDS MAY NOT GET TOO STRONG. PLEASE READ THE MOST RECENT
BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST ON
ALBERTO.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION/MARINE...O"HARA