Tropical Storm Alberto

[DESTRUCTION5]

guys iam trying to find out from any promet if we can discard down here in southflorida the possibility that this thing might turn NE sooner then expected???

Rain CHRISTY Rain...Maybe a Squall or 2 for homestead...

[CHRISTY]

i am not going to rule out SFL yet. this is still the first forecast, and the discussion says that most of it is uncertain, so i am watiing for the recon report this afternoon.

thanks evil jeremy for your opinion.

[AJC3]

There's a small exposed low level vortex visible now just east of Cancun near 20.8N 86.2W. Someone who has time can post a pic.

Looks to be drifting south which would lead me to believe that it's rotating around a larger center of circ.

[mtm4319]

There's a small exposed low level vortex visible now just east of Cancun near 20.8N 86.2W. Someone who has time can post a pic.

Looks to be drifting south which would lead me to believe that it's rotating around a larger center of circ.

I saw this as well, but wasn't sure it was what you're saying it is, so I held comment until now.

[CHRISTY]

guys iam looking at an IR loop of this thing and convection is exploding to east of were the center is.i think the chance is there for a new center to form under that huge ball of convection.

[DESTRUCTION5]

There's a small exposed low level vortex visible now just east of Cancun near 20.8N 86.2W. Someone who has time can post a pic.

Looks to be drifting south which would lead me to believe that it's rotating around a larger center of circ.

I was just gonna say that it loos like a second is well under the Main Convection..See it here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Downdraft]

There's a small exposed low level vortex visible now just east of Cancun near 20.8N 86.2W. Someone who has time can post a pic.

Looks to be drifting south which would lead me to believe that it's rotating around a larger center of circ.

Tony, as it stands now you see this more as a tornado threat for east central Florida?

[Extremeweatherguy]

This paragraph of the discussion worries me:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10. THE DEPRESSION
IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL
AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND STALLS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF
MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS...WHILE THE UKMET
TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.

[rockyman]

Christy...this low level center near the Yucatan Channel has been so persistent (contrary to what many thought yesterday re MLC over Caymans)...I just don't think it will reform now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Christy...this low level center near the Yucatan Channel has been so persistent (contrary to what many thought yesterday re MLC over Caymans)...I just don't think it will reform now.

1 in the channel is about to go poof..

[boca]

Here in SE Florida well probably get nothing. Lower Keys and Naples up the coast and north of Tampa thru the panhandle will be affected.

[dixiebreeze]

Monday NHC Forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[Aquawind]

The low level cloud pattern does not look like it's reforming east... A new LLC can reform under the convection with a MLC but it's not evident ATM.

[beachbum_al]

Referring to the bridges, I know they close some of our bridge over here in Alabama when the winds get up to a certain speed. I don't know what the speed is. Only emergency personnel can go across. I-10 across the BayWay to Mobile has been close several times.

Christy,
I think everyone along the GOM should watch this. Not just S Florida or FL to be exact. Things can change. I watch this with Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Dennis. Of course we can't forget Katrina. One minute the models show a storm going toward a certain area and then all of sudden it changes due to conditions. I would keep an eye and be prepare but don't panic. Hurricanes are part of life down here along the GOM and it is better to be prepare than be caught rushing around trying to get ready.
Shelley

[hriverajr]

RockyMan I have to agree with you. I do not think it is going to go "poof" This system may do some strange things yet.

[AJC3]

There's a small exposed low level vortex visible now just east of Cancun near 20.8N 86.2W. Someone who has time can post a pic.

Looks to be drifting south which would lead me to believe that it's rotating around a larger center of circ.

Tony, as it stands now you see this more as a tornado threat for east central Florida?

Exactly...the greatest threat would be while the center is south of 28-29N, when the 0-1KM helicities would be the highest. Also, sheared, ugly systems tend to be more prolific hose-producers here in FL. Should remain a lopsided, right-sided system. Not terribly strong, but could be a real beneficial soaker for a lot of folks here in ECFL.

[boca]

Christy I think here in SE FLorida we can disgard this system.

[ronjon]

Here in SE Florida well probably get nothing. Lower Keys and Naples up the coast and north of Tampa thru the panhandle will be affected.

Boca, I think you are in store for some heavy rain. Check out the large mass of heavy rain headed north from the Key West radar site.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

[CHRISTY]

Christy I think here in SE FLorida we can disgard this system.

until its north of me iam not gonna say that just yet.

[aOl]

I didn't see any models... could someone post them? Wunderground doesn't seem to have any yet.