Tropical Storm Alberto

Extremeweatherguy · #121 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:13 am

N2FSU wrote:Not a graphic, but here is a link to the GFS, CMC, Nogaps and GFDL:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

thanks.

#122 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:14 am

OK, I think I get what is occuring, see what you think.

There is a broad LL circulation that is runing north to south just to the west of the convection and just east of the Yucatan peninsula, small LL circulations are forming on the ENE side of this main elongated LL center. The small crics. are then getting caught in the broad counterclockwise rotation and pulled out north of the elongated circulation and become exposed as we see one now just off the NE tip of the Yucatan. The mid and upper level circualtions from these small LL circulations are moving off to the NNE away from the LL circulation.

This TD will have a hard time becoming better organized until the SW shear lets up and the elongated LL Low gets convection concentrated over it.

Extremeweatherguy · #123 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:14 am

also, thanks NCHurricane and mtm4319 for those graphics

#124 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:15 am

rockyman wrote:Looking at the latest QuikScat from 1115z, it looks like the big "hole" in the clouds due ESE of Cozumel is a very broad center of circulation...which means the circulation could tighten up anywhere between 21 N and 18.5 north

http://tinyurl.com/f7wzm

Agree, the other little circs. are developing in the convection to the east and rotate out on the north side, such as the one near Cancun.

rockyman · #125 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:17 am

Center from QScat:
http://tinyurl.com/f7wzm

My depiction:
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h119/rockyman_photos/GOES13552006161J65Vyp.jpg

mtm4319 · #126 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:17 am

NCHurricane wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Does anyone have a graphic that shows where all the models take this system? (Prefrably not a graphic made up of the LBAR, BAMD, and other usually useless models only).

This is the only one I've seen so far Early Model Guidance It only has a couple.

WU and SFWMD aren't up yet (that I've seen).

EDIT: mtm beat me. Where did that one come from, mtm?

Screenshot of a Google Earth overlay I have open.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archiv ... 06mlts.gif - SkeetoBiteWeather.com model compilation
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012006graphics.html - Derek Ortt's forecast
And the white line is my representation of the NHC forecast (their maps don't fit the Google Earth map projection)

NCHurricane · #127 Postby **NCHurricane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:19 am

mtm4319 wrote:Screenshot of a Google Earth overlay I have open.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archiv ... 06mlts.gif - SkeetoBiteWeather.com model compilation
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012006graphics.html - Derek Ortt's forecast
And the white line is my representation of the NHC forecast (their maps don't fit the Google Earth map projection)

Ok, thanks. Looks nice. 8-)

#128 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:19 am

rockyman wrote:Looking at the latest QuikScat from 1115z, it looks like the big "hole" in the clouds due ESE of Cozumel is a very broad center of circulation...which means the circulation could tighten up anywhere between 21 N and 18.5 north

http://tinyurl.com/f7wzm

Given that image...I think that vort center on the west will eventually rotate back around into the convection and tighten into the center later today...

I hate the weak...poorly organized systems...
:lol:

Extremeweatherguy · #129 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:21 am

rockyman wrote:Center from QScat:
http://tinyurl.com/f7wzm

My depiction:
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h119/rockyman_photos/GOES13552006161J65Vyp.jpg

this center seems further west than yesterday. Nice graphic.

Extremeweatherguy · #130 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:24 am

mtm4319 wrote:
NCHurricane wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Does anyone have a graphic that shows where all the models take this system? (Prefrably not a graphic made up of the LBAR, BAMD, and other usually useless models only).

This is the only one I've seen so far Early Model Guidance It only has a couple.

WU and SFWMD aren't up yet (that I've seen).

EDIT: mtm beat me. Where did that one come from, mtm?

Screenshot of a Google Earth overlay I have open.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archiv ... 06mlts.gif - SkeetoBiteWeather.com model compilation
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012006graphics.html - Derek Ortt's forecast
And the white line is my representation of the NHC forecast (their maps don't fit the Google Earth map projection)

When looking at those models I would just completely throw out the BAMD, LBAR, and the A98E.

DESTRUCTION5 · #131 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:24 am

Air Force Met wrote:
rockyman wrote:Looking at the latest QuikScat from 1115z, it looks like the big "hole" in the clouds due ESE of Cozumel is a very broad center of circulation...which means the circulation could tighten up anywhere between 21 N and 18.5 north

http://tinyurl.com/f7wzm

Given that image...I think that vort center on the west will eventually rotate back around into the convection and tighten into the center later today...

I hate the weak...poorly organized systems...

Still with the further east Scenario AFM?

Extremeweatherguy · #132 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:27 am

I don't see this relocating further east. Looking at the visible it just does not seem likely within the next few hours. This looks to be getting it's act together east of Cozumel...if anything, that may be the spot that takes over.

#133 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:29 am

It looks to me that TD one is headed for the central GOM.

Everyone from Mobile eastward should keep up to date on this. I still don't see it missing the trough.

AZS · #134 Postby **AZS** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:31 am

mtm4319 · #135 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:31 am

Dean4Storms wrote:It looks to me that TD one is headed for the central GOM.

Everyone from Mobile eastward should keep up to date on this. I still don't see it missing the trough.

Well, arguably the "central Gulf" begins somewhere on the SE Louisiana coast.

Extremeweatherguy · #136 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:32 am

Dean4Storms wrote:It looks to me that TD one is headed for the central GOM.

Everyone from Mobile eastward should keep up to date on this. I still don't see it missing the trough.

My feeling is that it will be faster than the trof, work to just south of LA, stall for a few hours and then be shunted east toward Mobile or the FL panhandle. I think over time the Forecast track will be shifted a good 100-200 miles west.

#137 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:35 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
rockyman wrote:Looking at the latest QuikScat from 1115z, it looks like the big "hole" in the clouds due ESE of Cozumel is a very broad center of circulation...which means the circulation could tighten up anywhere between 21 N and 18.5 north

http://tinyurl.com/f7wzm

Given that image...I think that vort center on the west will eventually rotate back around into the convection and tighten into the center later today...

I hate the weak...poorly organized systems...

Still with the further east Scenario AFM?

To be very honest...it all really depends on where the final LLC wants to get going and until that happens...all this "its going here or there"...is just a bunch of guessing. Reason: It forms 100 miles to the east it takes a totally different track than if it forms 100 miles to the SW or NE. We really have to wait to see where the center finally gets going...then you can tell what steering flow it will grab.

#138 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:36 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:It looks to me that TD one is headed for the central GOM.

Everyone from Mobile eastward should keep up to date on this. I still don't see it missing the trough.
My feeling is that it will be faster than the trof, work to just south of LA, stall for a few hours and then be shunted east toward Mobile or the FL panhandle. I think over time the Forecast track will be shifted a good 100-200 miles west.

It is a possibility Extreme, the further NW it gets before the trough picks it up the further north and west the track becomes IMO.

kenl01 · #139 Postby **kenl01** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:36 am

Dean4Storms wrote:OK, I think I get what is occuring, see what you think.

There is a broad LL circulation that is runing north to south just to the west of the convection and just east of the Yucatan peninsula, small LL circulations are forming on the ENE side of this main elongated LL center. The small crics. are then getting caught in the broad counterclockwise rotation and pulled out north of the elongated circulation and become exposed as we see one now just off the NE tip of the Yucatan. The mid and upper level circualtions from these small LL circulations are moving off to the NNE away from the LL circulation.

This TD will have a hard time becoming better organized until the SW shear lets up and the elongated LL Low gets convection concentrated over it.

Agreed 100 %

mtm4319 · #140 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:37 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

Steering map for the time being. Looks like it favors an initially NW track.

Tropical Storm Alberto

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