Tropical Storm Alberto

#221 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:47 am

HurricaneGirl wrote::eek: Holy Crap!

There it is!!!! The Official Holy Crap! Now it's time to worry! :lol:

#222 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:47 am

I'd say we have Alberto when the Recon is done...

whereverwx · #223 Postby **whereverwx** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:48 am

HURAKAN wrote:http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

The rain is close!

That's a cool loop. Thanks for posting it.

#224 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:48 am

Decomdoug wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:Looks like it could be good news for Fla. Typical for June storms almost all precip is east of the center and it very heavily laden with moisture (Grand Cayman already has had 20 plus inches in 24 hrs). With any luck it could track more north drenching the entire state. Also, even if it does track on the initial forecast path the Carolinas won't have to deal with it because everything is east of center.

Yes,Much of the Floirida Penninsula has been on a deficit of precipitation and this will help in a big way to if not terminate the drought,to aliviate greatly that.

Deficit is an under statement. I hope the treasure coast gets some substancial rain from this system.

While West Palm and Vero Beach have had some decient rain showers in the last 30 days, Port St. Lucie has only had about .60" in the past couple of months. We haven't been able to buy rain. The ground under my lawn is dry like a desert.

Rain, Rain, Rain, (chanting!)

If "Alberto" drop our drought index below 500 here, I would be very happy. :wink:

johngaltfla · #225 Postby **johngaltfla** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:49 am

HurricaneGirl wrote::eek: Holy Crap!

NOW we can say the season has officially begun. We have our first "Holy Crap!" of the year.

It's off to the races and folks, if it gets up to 60 mph by tommorrow night or early Monday morning, don't be suprised if we have a Gabrielle type scenario on Tuesday along Florida's west coast.

#226 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:50 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1137 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 1134 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG COPPITT
KEY...OR ABOUT 12 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SUGARLOAF KEY...BAY POINT...SHARK KEY AND BOCA CHICA

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST
AT 3 0 5...2 9 5...1 3 1 6...EXTENSION 3.

LAT...LON 2441 8164 2449 8146 2483 8164 2476 8183

x-y-no · #227 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:50 am

skysummit wrote:
HurricaneGirl wrote::eek: Holy Crap!

There it is!!!! The Official Holy Crap! Now it's time to worry!

Now hurricane season has officially started! 8-)

mtm4319 · #228 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:53 am

mtm4319 wrote:Anyone know how good the NGM model is?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/ngm/12/images/ngm_slp_048l.gif

Takes it to the Mobile/Pensacola area in just 48 hours.

Bumping for any opinions on the Nested Grid model.

HurricaneGirl · #229 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:53 am

It's coming right for us :eek:

The Holy Crap Torch (given to me from Amazi)!

x-y-no · #230 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:53 am

skysummit wrote:BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1137 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 1134 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG COPPITT
KEY...OR ABOUT 12 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SUGARLOAF KEY...BAY POINT...SHARK KEY AND BOCA CHICA

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST
AT 3 0 5...2 9 5...1 3 1 6...EXTENSION 3.

LAT...LON 2441 8164 2449 8146 2483 8164 2476 8183

Yeah, I just now fired up GRW on the Key West radar ... first real strong band of storms is crossing the keys now. And there's a heck of a lot of moisture where that came from.

I think within a couple of days, the drought situation for the whole Florida peninsula will be history. 8-)

mtm4319 · #231 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:55 am

NAM-WRF at 12z still likes the SW movement off the coast of Texas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif

Opal storm · #232 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:55 am

mtm4319 wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Anyone know how good the NGM model is?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/ngm/12/images/ngm_slp_048l.gif

Takes it to the Mobile/Pensacola area in just 48 hours.

Bumping for any opinions on the Nested Grid model.

Hope that doesn't happen that's all I can say.

caneman · #233 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:56 am

Remember Gabby all too well. Happened right around 9/11. Never really got good recon on it because of 9/11 but still think it was a Hurricane. Where do people get the shield theory from. No we haven't been hit by a major but Elean, Gordon, Gabby, Frances and Jeanne still gave us a good blow. In fact, I lost trees and lost power for 11 days from Frances and Jeanne combined. As for the shield theory, it's an old tale here that Indian Rocks Beach and this area were protected by Indians who lived in this area and put a spiritual shield on us. If you believe in that sort if thing. ONly God knows when we will go walloped again. Just be prepared.

rockyman · #234 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:57 am

Upper high is forming over SW Gulf of Honduras...right over the blob of storms there...I'm beginning to think that the center could eventually coalesce at the southern end of where QScat showed a broad center earlier.

http://tinyurl.com/k8lhs

ronjon · #235 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:59 am

Looks like the first outer rainband setting up now over the keys. I'd look for more to develop over the S FL peninsula today with afternoon heating. Possible severe weather set up today and tonite.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/d ... duration=0

DESTRUCTION5 · #236 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:01 am

LOL if this is our LLC TD 1 is Dead..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

#237 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:04 am

Waaay too many circs for me. I actually count 4. What a mess.

ronjon · #238 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:07 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:LOL if this is our LLC TD 1 is Dead..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

There still is a broad area of low pressure. Its not going away. Until more convection can fire around the center and it starts to contract, this will remain a fairly weak system.

Extremeweatherguy · #239 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:08 am

mtm4319 wrote:NAM-WRF at 12z still likes the SW movement off the coast of Texas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif

I really hope this does not happen. This model is showing a Cat. 1/2 Hurricane threatening the Galveston/Houston area!

Extremeweatherguy · #240 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:09 am

skysummit wrote:Waaay too many circs for me. I actually count 4. What a mess.

if it developed all the way down at "4" then the entire path would change completely. I think the coolest looking one right now is numer "1", but I think it is 2 or 3 that the NHC is calling TD1.

Tropical Storm Alberto

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