Tropical Storm Alberto

[Opal storm]

NAM-WRF at 12z still likes the SW movement off the coast of Texas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif

I really hope this does not happen. This model is showing a Cat. 1/2 Hurricane threatening the Galveston/Houston area!

That's probably not going to happen I don't think this is going any farther west than Ft Walton Beach.

[Opal storm]

Waaay too many circs for me. I actually count 4. What a mess.

if it developed all the way down at "4" then the entire path would change completely. I think the coolest looking one right now is numer "1", but I think it is 2 or 3 that the NHC is calling TD1.

IMO 1 and 3 look to have the best chance,though convection has to get closer to 1.

[wxmann_91]

Someone asked me about a shear forecast yesterday --

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


IMO, LLC #3 is the one to survive. #1 and 2 will probably dissipate. #4 though is in the most favorable environment.


The NGM is the most simple and old model there is (besides the tropical models). Not very reliable.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Someone asked me about a shear forecast yesterday --

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


IMO, LLC #3 is the one to survive. #1 and 2 will probably dissipate. #4 though is in the most favorable environment.


The NGM is the most simple and old model there is (besides the tropical models). Not very reliable.

I think there is a slight chance that #4 could take over and become the new TD1.

[tailgater]

Upper high is forming over SW Gulf of Honduras...right over the blob of storms there...I'm beginning to think that the center could eventually coalesce at the southern end of where QScat showed a broad center earlier.

http://tinyurl.com/k8lhs
thank you. I've been trying to say that all morning, the little LLC that spun up over nite is rotating around the main trough, the Tstorms everyone was getting all excited about is in the Mid levels mostly.IMHO

[Steve]

If #1 is dominant, then the convection should die out later today and reform closer to it. We'd know that by 8 or 9 pm.

As for the NGM, it's a numerical equation model. It's not to be taken completely seriously although it works on the CONUS for some things (expanding windfields I believe). I think they re-tooled it a couple of years ago, but I could be wrong.

Steve

[skysummit]

Someone asked me about a shear forecast yesterday --

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


IMO, LLC #3 is the one to survive. #1 and 2 will probably dissipate. #4 though is in the most favorable environment.


The NGM is the most simple and old model there is (besides the tropical models). Not very reliable.

I think there is a slight chance that #4 could take over and become the new TD1.

Like someone else said, it's in the most favorable environment. It's actually pulling in #1.

[mtm4319]

No changes in the 12Z GFS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Someone asked me about a shear forecast yesterday --

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


IMO, LLC #3 is the one to survive. #1 and 2 will probably dissipate. #4 though is in the most favorable environment.


The NGM is the most simple and old model there is (besides the tropical models). Not very reliable.

I think there is a slight chance that #4 could take over and become the new TD1.

Like someone else said, it's in the most favorable environment. It's actually pulling in #1.

lol. yeah I noticed that too. May be #1 will take over #4's convection and become dominant. If this happens, then TD1 may miss the trof and thus miss Florida.

[GalvestonDuck]

NAM-WRF at 12z still likes the SW movement off the coast of Texas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif

I really hope this does not happen. This model is showing a Cat. 1/2 Hurricane threatening the Galveston/Houston area!

Not when we can't tell what direction it's going at that point.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the wind in Cozumel has become NE as #1 approaches it.

[mtm4319]

NAM-WRF at 12z still likes the SW movement off the coast of Texas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif

I really hope this does not happen. This model is showing a Cat. 1/2 Hurricane threatening the Galveston/Houston area!

Not when we can't tell what direction it's going at that point.

It's going WSW.


(NAM-WRF simulation through 84 hours, 12Z 6/10/06)

[curtadams]

None of the little swirls are the real circulation. Here's a quicksat of LL winds (thanks rockyman):

http://tinyurl.com/f7wzm

All these little swirls are orbiting the big circulation. The big circulation has no convection, I suspect because it's got too much dry air. #1 was putting up a convective smoke trail which died when it got close.

[GalvestonDuck]

Thanks, MTM...was only basing that on the .gif he posted.

So, then it's still not threatening Hou/Galv, EWG. We're okay at this point (emphasis on "at this point.") As always, never rule anything out with these bad boys until they're dead.

[ALhurricane]

The NHC did state there were several small circulations rotating around a mean center. However, looking at visibile satellite, the one moving WSW toward Cozumel is certainly the most impressive looking LLC. There are other small LLCs to the north, although they appear to have lost some definition late this morning. In other words, TD1 is a complete and utter mess.

If the LLC near Cozumel is the dominant feature, then it better get some convection quick. Otherwise, it is game, set, match.

That is where RECON becomes so critical. I don't envy their job of fixing the position of this thing.

[skysummit]

None of the little swirls are the real circulation. Here's a quicksat of LL winds (thanks rockyman):

http://tinyurl.com/f7wzm

All these little swirls are orbiting the big circulation. The big circulation has no convection, I suspect because it's got too much dry air. #1 was putting up a convective smoke trail which died when it got close.

That QuikScat is over 5 hours old.

[skysummit]

The NHC did state there were several small circulations rotating around a mean center. However, looking at visibile satellite, the one moving WSW toward Cozumel is certainly the most impressive looking LLC. There are other small LLCs to the north, although they appear to have lost some definition late this morning. In other words, TD1 is a complete and utter mess.

If the LLC near Cozumel is the dominant feature, then it better get some convection quick. Otherwise, it is game, set, match.

That is where RECON becomes so critical. I don't envy their job of fixing the position of this thing.

AL...what do you think about the circ east of Belize?

[Pearl River]

I know a lot of people aren't crazy about the NAM, but it does show low pressure and rain sitting over New Orleans in a couple of days.

[CHRISTY]

Ok guys i will be posting different model maps and other stuff about TD1 everytime the NHC updates the models and info.

https://secure.fwhn.com/hurricanealley_ ... 7f12fl.jpg


*edited by staff to make clickable link due to size of image

[mtm4319]

12z NOGAPS is a bit north of the consensus at first, then farther east... i.e., a sharper turn: