Don't like the new MM5 one darn bit!

Extremeweatherguy · #41 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:30 am

Cape Verde wrote:The Canadian model stalls it and weakens it.

I'm not sure I'm buying that, but I'm not sure it matters. Nobody is predicting this to become a major hurricane at the moment, and some models don't predict it becoming one at all.

I don't think there's the slightest doubt that it will not become Alberto, but I don't think this is a storm we will be remembering much about by September.

yeah, it will likely be forgotten unless you are in the area that is directly hit. If it does hit as a 60mph TS, than that means 50-70mph coastal gusts and 30-55mph inland gusts (in the worst part of the storm). It will be breezy/windy with some minor damages at the coast and heavy rains, but overall an un-eventful situation.

Lindaloo · #42 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:31 am

skysummit wrote:
sunny wrote:Hey Scott, any change with mm5 this morning (please, please PLEASE say it has changed).

The 00z takes it to the Central Gulf and stalls it. The 00z Canadian does the same. The 00z NOGAPS does the same. The 06z is out to 48 hours and looks like it does the same.

#43 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:34 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Cape Verde wrote:The Canadian model stalls it and weakens it.

I'm not sure I'm buying that, but I'm not sure it matters. Nobody is predicting this to become a major hurricane at the moment, and some models don't predict it becoming one at all.

I don't think there's the slightest doubt that it will not become Alberto, but I don't think this is a storm we will be remembering much about by September.
yeah, it will likely be forgotten unless you are in the area that is directly hit. If it does hit as a 60mph TS, than that means 50-70mph coastal gusts and 30-55mph inland gusts (in the worst part of the storm). It will be breezy/windy with some minor damages at the coast and heavy rains, but overall an un-eventful situation.

Uneventful unless you are in a FEMA trailer... then it can become quite eventful... lets keep this thing east of the MS coast please.... or a bunch of us might be looking for another camper...

cajungal · #44 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:59 am

Am I missing something? I looked at all the spagetti plots on Zack Fradella's site and not one of them bring it to SE Louisiana. All bring it to the big bend of Florida. But, I know that it can all change because it is poorly organized at this time. Cindy was originally supposed to go to Texas, but her center reformed a lot further east and she hit Grand Isle, LA instead. It happens all the time when the system is weaker. I was hoping just to get some decent rain out of this, but it does not look like I will get a drop. Excuse me if I am rambling, I just woke up and am still groggy.

#45 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:03 am

cajungal wrote:Am I missing something? I looked at all the spagetti plots on Zack Fradella's site and not one of them bring it to SE Louisiana. All bring it to the big bend of Florida. But, I know that it can all change because it is poorly organized at this time. Cindy was originally supposed to go to Texas, but her center reformed a lot further east and she hit Grand Isle, LA instead. It happens all the time when the system is weaker. I was hoping just to get some decent rain out of this, but it does not look like I will get a drop. Excuse me if I am rambling, I just woke up and am still groggy.

you might be rambling but its some pretty accurate rambling at the moment... as it stands I don't see much of anything for the LA/MS coast... but... weird things do happen with these developing systems...

models are really clustered for a fl hit and that's just fine by me...

mtm4319 · #46 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:08 am

cajungal wrote:Am I missing something? I looked at all the spagetti plots on Zack Fradella's site and not one of them bring it to SE Louisiana. All bring it to the big bend of Florida.

Which spaghetti plot is this... the SFWMD one?

Cape Verde · #47 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:11 am

Well, even a severe thunderstorm can be quite exciting if you're in a trailer or camper. I don't mean to minimize what a tropical storm can do, and they can be extremely dangerous if they stall over you (I know what TS Allison did here in Houston).

But it doesn't look like this storm has the slightest potential to become the type of devastating storm that will be remembered for years unless it impacts you personally in a major way.

#48 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:17 am

cajungal wrote:Am I missing something? I looked at all the spagetti plots on Zack Fradella's site and not one of them bring it to SE Louisiana. All bring it to the big bend of Florida. But, I know that it can all change because it is poorly organized at this time. Cindy was originally supposed to go to Texas, but her center reformed a lot further east and she hit Grand Isle, LA instead. It happens all the time when the system is weaker. I was hoping just to get some decent rain out of this, but it does not look like I will get a drop. Excuse me if I am rambling, I just woke up and am still groggy.

I just updated it with the 12z NAM. Most of the others are older...the new ones haven't come out yet.+

#49 Postby **Steve** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:26 am

>>I hate VIPIR.....

VIPIR ruled for Cindy though.

Extremeweatherguy · #50 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:27 am

skysummit wrote:
cajungal wrote:Am I missing something? I looked at all the spagetti plots on Zack Fradella's site and not one of them bring it to SE Louisiana. All bring it to the big bend of Florida. But, I know that it can all change because it is poorly organized at this time. Cindy was originally supposed to go to Texas, but her center reformed a lot further east and she hit Grand Isle, LA instead. It happens all the time when the system is weaker. I was hoping just to get some decent rain out of this, but it does not look like I will get a drop. Excuse me if I am rambling, I just woke up and am still groggy.

I just updated it with the 12z NAM. Most of the others are older...the new ones haven't come out yet.+

and the 12Z NAM takes it right into SE Louisiana. The good news though is that it is the NAM...usually wrong.

timNms · #51 Postby **timNms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:59 am

Let's all hope this thing doesn't get on prozac and stays depressed

Hopefully it'll bring some much needed rain to the southeast and nothing more!

#52 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:06 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
skysummit wrote:
cajungal wrote:Am I missing something? I looked at all the spagetti plots on Zack Fradella's site and not one of them bring it to SE Louisiana. All bring it to the big bend of Florida. But, I know that it can all change because it is poorly organized at this time. Cindy was originally supposed to go to Texas, but her center reformed a lot further east and she hit Grand Isle, LA instead. It happens all the time when the system is weaker. I was hoping just to get some decent rain out of this, but it does not look like I will get a drop. Excuse me if I am rambling, I just woke up and am still groggy.

I just updated it with the 12z NAM. Most of the others are older...the new ones haven't come out yet.+
and the 12Z NAM takes it right into SE Louisiana. The good news though is that it is the NAM...usually wrong.

...and remember though, the NAM was one of the first models to pick uo on our low...it and the CMC.

#53 Postby **Steve** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:07 am

>>and the 12Z NAM takes it right into SE Louisiana. The good news though is that it is the NAM...usually wrong.

Indeed. But give it and the Canadian credit for sniffing this thing out long before any of the other models.

Steve

Lindaloo · #54 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:36 pm

Yep, gotta give those two models credit this time.

Audrey2Katrina · #55 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:38 pm

Yep, gotta give those two models credit this time.

Perfectly willing to give 'em credit... just hope they're wrong as can be on that SE La. call... unless it remains POORLY defined and just brings us some much needed rain.

A2K

Lindaloo · #56 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:42 pm

Oh me too Don. As much as I hate to say this and I promised I would never do this again, but... we do need the rain. Just NO WIND or anything. Hope I do not jinx us. :eek:

#57 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:57 pm

Lindaloo wrote:Oh me too Don. As much as I hate to say this and I promised I would never do this again, but... we do need the rain. Just NO WIND or anything. Hope I do not jinx us.

Lindaloo · #58 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:37 pm

tailgater wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:Oh me too Don. As much as I hate to say this and I promised I would never do this again, but... we do need the rain. Just NO WIND or anything. Hope I do not jinx us.

Website · #59 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:41 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
tailgater wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:Oh me too Don. As much as I hate to say this and I promised I would never do this again, but... we do need the rain. Just NO WIND or anything. Hope I do not jinx us.

flightpath · #60 Postby **flightpath** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:00 pm

I'll take the rain don't need any wind even though there is not a single tree left on my property to blow down. My first look at the weather boards this year - Hi Linda :ggreen:

Don't like the new MM5 one darn bit!

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