TS Alberto Recon Reports

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stormtruth
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#101 Postby stormtruth » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:49 pm

So no Alberto? To much wind shear for a TS to organize? :?:
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#102 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:50 pm

^ We're unsure yet. Wait about 20 minutes and we'll know for sure.
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#103 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Where do you get those photos on Google Earth?


They're just overlays of the NHC images. I made them manually. (I've actually been trying to compile as many of them as I can, and later on I'll be placing them as a .kmz file for people to download.)
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#104 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:51 pm

stormtruth wrote:So no Alberto? To much wind shear for a TS to organize? :?:


way to early to tell they aren't even at the "center" but I think the center is much more south then the NHC has it at!
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#105 Postby StJoe » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:51 pm

getting bumpier as they get closer
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#106 Postby stormtruth » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:53 pm

I see. Thanks :)
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#107 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:54 pm

I place the center near 22.8N/85.8W, ignoring two low-level swirls to the south.
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#108 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:55 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 101743
AF301 01AAA INVEST HDOB 13 KNHC
1736 2312N 08633W 00303 5027 093 028 230 216 029 00285 0000000000
1736. 2311N 08632W 00306 5028 089 027 228 218 028 00287 0000000000
1737 2309N 08631W 00305 5028 088 026 228 216 028 00286 0000000000
1737. 2308N 08630W 00315 5028 088 024 228 218 025 00297 0000000000
1738 2307N 08629W 00324 5027 087 025 226 218 025 00306 0000000000
1738. 2306N 08628W 00322 5028 083 025 226 220 025 00303 0000000000
1739 2305N 08628W 00320 5029 081 025 226 218 026 00301 0000000000
1739. 2303N 08627W 00322 5029 080 025 226 216 027 00303 0000000000
1740 2302N 08626W 00320 5029 081 026 226 218 026 00300 0000000000
1740. 2301N 08625W 00323 5029 076 026 222 220 027 00303 0000000000
1741 2300N 08624W 00320 5029 076 027 222 220 028 00300 0000000000
1741. 2258N 08623W 00321 5029 074 029 222 220 030 00302 0000000000
1742 2257N 08622W 00322 5029 076 026 222 222 026 00303 0000000000
1742. 2256N 08621W 00321 5030 074 028 224 220 029 00300 1101000000
1743 2255N 08621W 00322 5030 072 026 224 222 026 00302 1101000000
1743. 2253N 08620W 00320 5030 075 027 226 222 027 00300 1101000000
1744 2252N 08619W 00322 5030 074 027 226 220 028 00302 1101000000
1744. 2251N 08618W 00320 5031 074 028 226 218 028 00299 0000000000
1745 2250N 08617W 00322 5031 072 027 226 222 029 00300 1101000000
1745. 2248N 08616W 00322 5031 071 026 226 220 027 00300 1101000000

They haved decended to flight level.
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#109 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:I place the center near 22.8N/85.8W, ignoring two low-level swirls to the south.
Well...we will see how close you get...I wont be surprised if you got it almost dead on...it appears the 2 PM advisory is being held up...
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#110 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:56 pm

Based on what we know, I think it is still a 35 mph depression with 1003 mb pressure. However, we have to see if they catch the other side.
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#111 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:57 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I place the center near 22.8N/85.8W, ignoring two low-level swirls to the south.
Well...we will see how close you get...I wont be surprised if you got it almost dead on...it appears the 2 PM advisory is being held up...


I don't think that recon will be able to find a well-defined center. It's anyone's guess where it is. Very poorly disorganized area of low-level swirls with squalls displaced well to the east.
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#112 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:57 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: INVEST (AAL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF301
Observation Number: 06
Time: 1751Z
Latitude: 22.6°N
Longitude: 86.1°W
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 1000 feet
Flight level wind: ENE (60°) @ 29 mph
Temperature: 72°F
Dewpoint: 72°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1008 mb
Surface Wind: E (70°) @ 35 mph
Remarks: None
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#113 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:I place the center near 22.8N/85.8W, ignoring two low-level swirls to the south.


That's only about 25 miles east of where 27 knots at flight level was just reported.
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#114 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:58 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 101753
AF301 01AAA INVEST HDOB 14 KNHC
1746 2247N 08615W 00321 5032 072 027 226 220 027 00298 1101000000
1746. 2246N 08614W 00321 5032 069 026 226 220 026 00298 1101000000
1747 2245N 08614W 00322 5032 066 026 226 222 026 00299 1101000000
1747. 2243N 08613W 00320 5033 066 026 226 222 028 00297 1101000000
1748 2242N 08612W 00323 5033 065 026 226 224 027 00299 0000000000
1748. 2241N 08611W 00320 5034 066 026 226 222 027 00296 0000000000
1749 2240N 08610W 00322 5034 069 025 228 218 025 00298 0000000000
1749. 2238N 08609W 00321 5034 069 025 228 220 025 00296 0000000000
1750 2237N 08608W 00321 5034 064 025 226 224 025 00296 0000000000
1750. 2236N 08607W 00322 5035 064 025 226 222 025 00297 0000000000
1751 2234N 08606W 00321 5036 060 025 226 224 026 00295 0000000000
1751. 2233N 08605W 00322 5035 058 025 226 224 026 00296 0000000000
1752 2232N 08605W 00321 5036 059 026 226 224 027 00294 0000000000
1752. 2231N 08604W 00322 5036 060 024 230 222 025 00295 0000000000
1753 2229N 08603W 00319 5037 068 025 230 212 026 00292 0000000000
1753. 2228N 08602W 00322 5038 068 027 230 214 027 00294 0000000000
1754 2227N 08601W 00321 5038 069 027 230 212 027 00292 0000000000
1754. 2226N 08600W 00322 5038 065 026 228 214 027 00294 0000000000
1755 2224N 08559W 00321 5038 064 026 228 214 026 00292 0000000000
1755. 2223N 08558W 00321 5039 062 025 226 220 025 00292 0000000000

Still nothing exciting.
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#115 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:59 pm

USAF High Density Observations
Storm Name: INVEST (AAL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF301
Flt Data Number: 14

01: 17:46:00; **** ****; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: ****; Wnd: ENE (72°) @ 31mph (Max: 31mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 978ft
02: 17:46:30; **** ****; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: ****; Wnd: ENE (69°) @ 30mph (Max: 30mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 978ft
03: 17:47:00; **** ****; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: ****; Wnd: ENE (66°) @ 30mph (Max: 30mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 981ft
04: 17:47:30; **** ****; PA: 1050ft; D-Val: ****; Wnd: ENE (66°) @ 30mph (Max: 32mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 974ft
05: 17:48:00; 22.7°N 86.2°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: -108 ft; Wnd: ENE (65°) @ 30mph (Max: 31mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 981ft
06: 17:48:30; 22.7°N 86.2°W; PA: 1050ft; D-Val: -112 ft; Wnd: ENE (66°) @ 30mph (Max: 31mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 971ft
07: 17:49:00; 22.7°N 86.2°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -112 ft; Wnd: ENE (69°) @ 29mph (Max: 29mph); T: 73F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 978ft
08: 17:49:30; 22.6°N 86.2°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -112 ft; Wnd: ENE (69°) @ 29mph (Max: 29mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 971ft
09: 17:50:00; 22.6°N 86.1°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -112 ft; Wnd: ENE (64°) @ 29mph (Max: 29mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 971ft
10: 17:50:30; 22.6°N 86.1°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -115 ft; Wnd: ENE (64°) @ 29mph (Max: 29mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 974ft
11: 17:51:00; 22.6°N 86.1°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -118 ft; Wnd: ENE (60°) @ 29mph (Max: 30mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 968ft
12: 17:51:30; 22.6°N 86.1°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -115 ft; Wnd: ENE (58°) @ 29mph (Max: 30mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 971ft
13: 17:52:00; 22.5°N 86.1°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -118 ft; Wnd: ENE (59°) @ 30mph (Max: 31mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 965ft
14: 17:52:30; 22.5°N 86.1°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -118 ft; Wnd: ENE (60°) @ 28mph (Max: 29mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 968ft
15: 17:53:00; 22.5°N 86.1°W; PA: 1047ft; D-Val: -121 ft; Wnd: ENE (68°) @ 29mph (Max: 30mph); T: 73F; D: 70F; Radar Alt: 958ft
16: 17:53:30; 22.5°N 86°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -125 ft; Wnd: ENE (68°) @ 31mph (Max: 31mph); T: 73F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 965ft
17: 17:54:00; 22.5°N 86°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -125 ft; Wnd: ENE (69°) @ 31mph (Max: 31mph); T: 73F; D: 70F; Radar Alt: 958ft
18: 17:54:30; 22.4°N 86°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -125 ft; Wnd: ENE (65°) @ 30mph (Max: 31mph); T: 73F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 965ft
19: 17:55:00; 22.4°N 86°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -125 ft; Wnd: ENE (64°) @ 30mph (Max: 30mph); T: 73F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 958ft
20: 17:55:30; 22.4°N 86°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -128 ft; Wnd: ENE (62°) @ 29mph (Max: 29mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 958ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect
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#116 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:00 pm

Image
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#117 Postby saints63213 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:04 pm

THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...21.7 N...85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
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#118 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:05 pm

saints63213 wrote:THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...21.7 N...85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.


That was expected - the numbers are not yet in.
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#119 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:09 pm

USAF High Density Observations
Storm Name: INVEST (AAL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF301
Flt Data Number: 15

01: 17:56:00; 22.4°N 86°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -128 ft; Wnd: ENE (60°) @ 28mph (Max: 28mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 961ft
02: 17:56:30; 22.4°N 85.9°W; PA: 1050ft; D-Val: -128 ft; Wnd: ENE (61°) @ 28mph (Max: 29mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 951ft
03: 17:57:00; 22.3°N 85.9°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: -131 ft; Wnd: ENE (59°) @ 28mph (Max: 28mph); T: 73F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 958ft
04: 17:57:30; 22.3°N 85.9°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -135 ft; Wnd: ENE (60°) @ 26mph (Max: 26mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 951ft
05: 17:58:00; 22.3°N 85.9°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -135 ft; Wnd: ENE (57°) @ 25mph (Max: 25mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 951ft
06: 17:58:30; 22.3°N 85.9°W; PA: 1050ft; D-Val: -135 ft; Wnd: ENE (60°) @ 24mph (Max: 24mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 948ft
07: 17:59:00; 22.2°N 85.9°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -135 ft; Wnd: ENE (60°) @ 23mph (Max: 24mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 948ft
08: 17:59:30; 22.2°N 85.9°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -135 ft; Wnd: ENE (58°) @ 24mph (Max: 24mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 951ft
09: 18:00:00; 22.2°N 85.8°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -138 ft; Wnd: NE (56°) @ 23mph (Max: 23mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 948ft
10: 18:00:30; 22.2°N 85.8°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -141 ft; Wnd: NE (54°) @ 23mph (Max: 23mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 945ft
11: 18:01:00; 22.2°N 85.8°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -141 ft; Wnd: NE (51°) @ 22mph (Max: 22mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 945ft
12: 18:01:30; 22.1°N 85.8°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -141 ft; Wnd: NE (54°) @ 21mph (Max: 22mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 942ft
13: 18:02:00; 22.1°N 85.8°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: -144 ft; Wnd: NE (56°) @ 22mph (Max: 23mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 942ft
14: 18:02:30; 22.1°N 85.8°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -141 ft; Wnd: NE (53°) @ 22mph (Max: 22mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 945ft
15: 18:03:00; 22.1°N 85.8°W; PA: 1050ft; D-Val: -144 ft; Wnd: NE (54°) @ 22mph (Max: 22mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 938ft
16: 18:03:30; 22°N 85.7°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -144 ft; Wnd: NE (47°) @ 20mph (Max: 21mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 942ft
17: 18:04:00; 22°N 85.7°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -148 ft; Wnd: NE (42°) @ 20mph (Max: 20mph); T: 73F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 938ft
18: 18:04:30; 22°N 85.7°W; PA: 1050ft; D-Val: -151 ft; Wnd: NE (43°) @ 21mph (Max: 22mph); T: 73F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 928ft
19: 18:05:00; 22°N 85.7°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -151 ft; Wnd: NE (42°) @ 22mph (Max: 22mph); T: 73F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 935ft
20: 18:05:30; 22°N 85.7°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -154 ft; Wnd: NE (38°) @ 21mph (Max: 22mph); T: 73F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 932ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect
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#120 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:11 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: INVEST (AAL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF301
Observation Number: 07
Time: 1806Z
Latitude: 21.9°N
Longitude: 85.6°W
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 1000 feet
Flight level wind: NNE (30°) @ 21 mph
Temperature: 72°F
Dewpoint: 72°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1006 mb
Surface Wind: NE (60°) @ 17 mph
Remarks: None
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