Tropical Storm Alberto

[hurricanefreak1988]

So we're on the board. Interesting that our first storm this year forms on a date just two days after the date that our first storm last year formed. I still don't think 2005 will ever be matched, but maybe this early start means we're in for another wild season. Also, with soon-to-be Alberto heading for Florida, that means this is the third straight year we've kicked off the hurricane season with a land-threatening storm. I would say landfalling, but technically, Alex never made landfall in 2004. Either way, the kickoff storms to the last three seasons have certainly not been quiet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The reason people may think it is moving NE is because the convection is being sheared off of the center. The center itself is moving basically NNW (unless #1 IS the center...in that case; it is moving S).

[tailgater]

I don't know if anyone has posted this, but a ship just north of the circulation center has been reporting increasing winds all morning. Ship KS049 reported last hour a 39kt wind and pressure of 1000.9 mb at 11:42 EDT. Certainly possible that these readings are miscalibrated, but it's also possible that they aren't.

I don't think I'd trust that ship report Check out it's lat. long. water temp and pressure.

[SWFLA_CANE]

I thought I read that sheer was decreasing, is that true or is sheer still high and going to continue to be high?

[JamesFromMaine2]

I thought I read that sheer was decreasing, is that true or is sheer still high and going to continue to be high?

depends on where recon finds the center to be! I think recon will find that its not where the NHC said it was

[WindRunner]

I don't know if anyone has posted this, but a ship just north of the circulation center has been reporting increasing winds all morning. Ship KS049 reported last hour a 39kt wind and pressure of 1000.9 mb at 11:42 EDT. Certainly possible that these readings are miscalibrated, but it's also possible that they aren't.

I don't think I'd trust that ship report Check out it's lat. long. water temp and pressure.

OK, so the water temp thermometer is off a little bit . . . or else the ship is carrying blocks of ice in its lower holds . . .

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting Houston AFD (they are not letting their guards down yet):

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101548
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1048 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.UPDATE...
NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME SO NO NEW ZONES WILL BE
FORTHCOMING. STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LIGHT SWLY
FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER WARM DAY TODAY. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 304 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006)
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN
CONTROL. BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT WE TIE/BREAK ANY TEMPERATURE RECORDS. PRELIMINARY
NUMBERS BELOW HAVE BOTH CLL AND IAH WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...SO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN
THE GRIDS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR
NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST CONCERNING POSSIBLE WEEKEND TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO AREA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WE STILL SEE SOME MODELS
BRINGING THIS CYCLONE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OFF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS...SOME MODELS TAKING A SLOW NORTHWEST TRACK
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOME MODELS LIFTING THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN FLORIDA AREA. WILL BASE OUR FORECAST ON THE
EASTERN GULF SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS IDEA
MATERIALIZES...WE COULD ACTUALLY GET A FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS AND A VERY
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...WILL NOT SHOW
ANY TEMPERATURE DROPS AT THIS TIME. IF THE CENTRAL GULF OR THE
WESTERN GULF SOLUTIONS EVOLVE WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...WE MIGHT
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO OUR FORECAST. BOTTOM
LINE...NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST FOR THE AREA DOES BEAR WATCH! 42

WEEKEND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE...

TODAY SUNDAY
CLL - 100 SET IN 1917 100 SET IN 1917
IAH - 96 SET IN 1963 96 SET IN 1953
GLS - 95 SET IN 1906 94 SET IN 1936

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[benny]

It appears to me they're all awake. Otherewise, this puppy would be called TD1 now. Earth weather...tropical weather...that's what is in place for this to happen.

I am not to sure what you men here GD? If your referring to the reasoning being favorable meteorological conditions then I would somewhat agree.

But what you are failing to understand here is that these conditions get put into place by favorable space weather changes.

A question which I don't think has been properly answered yet is how do these space weather phenomenon that you refer to affect only specific areas of the Earth? Does this effect happen every time? Most of the time? I find it a stretch to think that whatever space disturbance you were tracking happened to only affect the area around TD #1. Why didn't a cyclone try to form somewhere else? How can you separate the atmosphere's effects versus something forcing it?

[WindRunner]

It appears to me they're all awake. Otherewise, this puppy would be called TD1 now. Earth weather...tropical weather...that's what is in place for this to happen.

I am not to sure what you men here GD? If your referring to the reasoning being favorable meteorological conditions then I would somewhat agree.

But what you are failing to understand here is that these conditions get put into place by favorable space weather changes.

A question which I don't think has been properly answered yet is how do these space weather phenomenon that you refer to affect only specific areas of the Earth? Does this effect happen every time? Most of the time? I find it a stretch to think that whatever space disturbance you were tracking happened to only affect the area around TD #1. Why didn't a cyclone try to form somewhere else? How can you separate the atmosphere's effects versus something forcing it?

Well, I'm not Jim, but I do try to watch what he follows a little bit as well, and I'll try to answer them to the best of my ability. These occurances do not only affect one particular area, but rather the tropics in general. Similarly, flare-ups (not necessarily into depressions) do occur in the WPAC and EPAC as well. And if the event is strong enough, yes, some sort of flare-up of convection almost always happens. And the trick behind "seperating" the atmosphere's effects is not actually seperating them, but rather the space weather causes the atmospheric weather to become more favorable, and the more favorable atmosphere will allow for the flare-up(s), possibly causing a depression, as in this case.

I'd still like Jim to explain the specifics, though.

[GalvestonDuck]

It appears to me they're all awake. Otherewise, this puppy would be called TD1 now. Earth weather...tropical weather...that's what is in place for this to happen.

I am not to sure what you men here GD? If your referring to the reasoning being favorable meteorological conditions then I would somewhat agree.

But what you are failing to understand here is that these conditions get put into place by favorable space weather changes.

Total typo - should have been "Otherwise, this puppy wouldn't be called TD1 now." In other words, yeah...we're all following it. Yeah, favorable meteorological conditions.

[mtm4319]

The area around 20/85 looks interesting to me on the visibles. The cloud wrapping looks center-ish.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

^^Look at this IF loop! It looks like the center has reformed to the NW. There seems to be some convection starting to wrap around. This is also the area that the hurricane hunters reported a 32 knot wind.^^

[Beam]

DISCLAIMER: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[rockyman]

Beam...I haven't even loaded that huge graphic yet...but I know it's too large...please provide a link instead.

[Pearl River]

EW. This thing seems to be moving on a more wnw to nw movement, from what I can tell. What do you think?

[Beam]

Beam...I haven't even loaded that huge graphic yet...but I know it's too large...please provide a link instead.

Done.

[Brandon007]

hey I know this is a little off topic but does anyone know what time the tropical weather outlook comes on on the weather channel?

[lester]

hey I know this is a little off topic but does anyone know what time the tropical weather outlook comes on on the weather channel?

50 past the hour

[Brent]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

^^Look at this IF loop! It looks like the center has reformed to the NW. There seems to be some convection starting to wrap around. This is also the area that the hurricane hunters reported a 32 knot wind.^^

Hmmmm, maybe.

Looks like a big sheared mess right now. Lots of rain going to Florida.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EW. This thing seems to be moving on a more wnw to nw movement, from what I can tell. What do you think?

That is what I was thinking too, but so far there has been no official word on whether or not a LLC is trying to form in that area. In my opinion, I think there is a chance it just may be, because you can clearly see a spin in that area. I guess we should wait to see what the Hurricane hunters have to say.