Tropical Storm Alberto

WindRunner · #301 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:40 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

^^Look at this IF loop! It looks like the center has reformed to the NW. There seems to be some convection starting to wrap around. This is also the area that the hurricane hunters reported a 32 knot wind.^^

I'm seeing what you're seeing, but I'd give it a couple more hours before saying for sure whether it got relocated . . . that would be a pretty big shift northward.

rockyman · #302 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:41 pm

Thanks, Beam! Is that an official map or your forecast?...If it's your forecast, please tell us why you expect the system to move on your track.

#303 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:41 pm

Nice graphic Beam, but waaay too large and too long to download for us dial-up folks!

Extremeweatherguy · #304 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:42 pm

There also seems to be a spin sitting right over Cancun/Cozumel.

conestogo_flood · #305 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:47 pm

Canadian Hurricane Centre is on it. According to the NHC it will still be a tropical storm over Canadian waters and possible NS/NB.

Canadian Hurricane Centre: http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/index_e.html

Track Map: http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/current6.html

#306 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:47 pm

TPNT KGWC 101815
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
B. 10/1731Z (39)
C. 22.6N/0
D. 86.3W/7
E. THREE/GOES-12
F. T1.0/1.0/STT: S0.0/3HRS -10/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC 62NM W OF DG YIELDING A DT OF 1.0.
FT BASED ON DT. PT YIELDS 1.5.

AODT: 1.4 (SHEAR)

WEAVER

Air Force Sat Estimates.

#307 Postby **Pearl River** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:48 pm

The latest CMC has it back toward the Big Bend of Florida. The latest run of the 12z COAMPS has it stall around 27N/89w and bomb. I hope its wrong.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #308 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:51 pm

This thing is acting like Arlene 100 percent.

Extremeweatherguy · #309 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:TPNT KGWC 101815
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
B. 10/1731Z (39)
C. 22.6N/0
D. 86.3W/7
E. THREE/GOES-12
F. T1.0/1.0/STT: S0.0/3HRS -10/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC 62NM W OF DG YIELDING A DT OF 1.0.
FT BASED ON DT. PT YIELDS 1.5.

AODT: 1.4 (SHEAR)

WEAVER

Air Force Sat Estimates.

that's right about where I said I thought it was. This thing has taken a HUGE leap NW. This could change the track significantly.

This is my quote from the RECON thread:

I think the center is reforming near 23N, 87W. Here is a look at the IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

This is also where the 32 knot wind was recorded!

Based on this...we may see a large track shift to the left at 5pm.

Beam · #310 Postby **Beam** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:56 pm

rockyman wrote:Thanks, Beam! Is that an official map or your forecast?...If it's your forecast, please tell us why you expect the system to move on your track.

It's my forecast. NHC graphics aren't nearly as pretty as mine.

The upper level winds should guide it northward for about the next 24 hours, and from there the subtropical jet should influence it more to the east, dragging it into northwestern Florida on monday evening before snagging it and slinging it into the waters off the East Coast by tuesday and wednesday, where it should begin to lose tropical characteristics.

I'm staying a little conservative on intenisification. i don't think we're getting Alberto until tomorrow. The bloody thing is so disorganized, it's pathetic. Giving FL some much-needed rain, though.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #311 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:56 pm

We have to when it makes it into that super hot loop current.

CHRISTY · #312 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:58 pm

Here are more MODEL'S guys....

GLOBAL MODELS 12z

CONSENSUS MODELS 12z

REGIONAL MODELS 12z

#313 Postby **hsvwx** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:59 pm

Just a quick thought for those want to believe the gfs solution. The gfs has this system moving quickly early with the circulation being well north of cuba by 00z tonight, or about 5 hours from now. I don't know about you guys, but at it's current pace, it seems that it will not be that far north at that time. Therefore, if this thing happens to be slower than progged by the GFS, which at least currently it seems that way, we may be looking towards a solution more towards the NAM or NAM-WRF with a system in the central or western gulf which gets stuck underneath the ridge which is building back towards the east coast after the initial shortwave departs. This ridge builds back in response to the trough digging into the west coast. As always, uncertainty certainly exists out in 72 hours, heck it even exists now with not knowing the exact location of a low level circulation. So I still believe all parts of the Gulf should be watching this closely!!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #314 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:01 pm

If its not just north of northwestern Cuba then this will not likely be a depression very long. 22.5 north/84 west??? Looks to be the best turning/MLC. With good outflow to the north and east of the center. If it forms there it should have no problem becoming a tropical storm.

conestogo_flood · #315 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:10 pm

NOLA could be in the path????

Bgator · #316 Postby **Bgator** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:12 pm

This is not a depression if the LLC is near cancun, do storms like these usually flare down about this time, thna flare up later this evening? Seems to be doing that!

#317 Postby **hsvwx** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:16 pm

Bgator wrote:This is not a depression if the LLC is near cancun, do storms like these usually flare down about this time, thna flare up later this evening? Seems to be doing that!

There is typically a convective maximum at night. If you remember last year, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma I believe all had there lowest pressures during their convective maximum in the middle of the night. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that was the case.

#318 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:17 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (AL012006) ON 20060610 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060610 1800 060611 0600 060611 1800 060612 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.5N 85.5W 23.9N 86.0W 26.0N 85.7W 28.0N 84.5W
BAMM 21.5N 85.5W 23.3N 86.7W 24.9N 87.4W 26.0N 87.5W
A98E 21.5N 85.5W 22.3N 85.6W 23.7N 85.7W 25.1N 84.9W
LBAR 21.5N 85.5W 23.1N 85.9W 25.1N 85.9W 26.9N 85.1W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060612 1800 060613 1800 060614 1800 060615 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.9N 82.3W 34.4N 76.4W 42.2N 68.0W 50.8N 54.7W
BAMM 26.7N 86.8W 26.9N 82.3W 30.1N 76.1W 35.4N 67.2W
A98E 26.4N 83.9W 29.8N 80.4W 35.4N 72.6W 45.5N 53.6W
LBAR 28.5N 82.9W 32.3N 75.9W 41.3N 65.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 59KTS 55KTS
DSHP 46KTS 44KTS 48KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.5N LONCUR = 85.5W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.0N LONM12 = 85.0W DIRM12 = 357DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 85.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Tropical Model suite.

CHRISTY · #319 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:19 pm

to me TD 1 is looking very disorganized... the dry air in the gulf might kill its chances.

HERE IS A PIC OF THE DRY AIR IN THE GULF.

NICE CLOSE UP OF TD1

AWSOME CLOSE LOOP OF TD1

#320 Postby **fox13weather** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:20 pm

Quick look at the vis this afternoon. The same trof that has been a fixture in the east this spring is doing quite a shearing number on TD1. Unless something changes, this will be a rainmaker for Florida and nothing more ...

Tropical Storm Alberto

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