Tropical Storm Alberto

[Kennethb]

Recon could find that it could not find a dominant center, only several small vortices, swirling around in a broad area of low pressure.

[saints63213]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas75.png

[Bgator]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas75.png

Well thast shows where the main center should be, and most of the strong winds are dislocated to the south of cuba!

[Evil Jeremy]

what are the chances of the NHC pulling the plug on this system?

[HurricaneHunter914]

TD #1 is still expected to reach TS status nonetheless.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If that convection to the south keeps moving northward then this could organize. Also the upper high is fairly close it gets on top of it then things will change.

[rockyman]

With such a strong QScat presentation, I'd be shocked if NHC pulled the plug at this point.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now even though shear is high, unfortunatley it's forecasted to decrease.

[cycloneye]

If the poor organization continues in the next 6-12 hours or earlier I would not be surprised if NHC downgrades it to an open wave.

[skysummit]

If the poor organization continues in the next 6-12 hours I would not be surprised if NHC downgrades it to an open wave.

That's what I'm thinking too.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This thing could disappate later tonight or tomorrow, cause everytime a system makes its way towards Florida, it goes poof. I think the same will go for TD One.

[hsvwx]

I'm sure everyone understands this, but obviously the main reason this system cannot organize it self currently is because of the shear associated with the upper level low over the sw gulf of mexico. This low is clear in the TAFB streamline analysis. This system will continue to struggle until this low weakens or steers clear of the tropical depression, which should occur over the next 24 hours. But until then, there will continually be blow ups and flare downs of the convection. The streamline analysis mentioned above can be found here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

[CrazyC83]

Even if it downgrades to an open wave, it will be watched for possible regeneration...

[jlauderdal]

This thing could disappate later tonight or tomorrow, cause everytime a system makes its way towards Florida, it goes poof. I think the same will go for TD One.

just like wilma, katrina, frances, andrew, irene to name a few.

[conestogo_flood]

I've been gone for an hour, and it's already storm cancellation?

[Brent]

I've been gone for an hour, and it's already storm cancellation?

There's no vortex message, which either means there's no closed circulation(which means it's not a TD) or there's so dang many they can't decide which is which(which is a bad sign for development).

It is looking VERY sick at this time.

[CHRISTY]

yep its definately lookin very sick...to much shear+dry air

[CrazyC83]

Regardless, I think it's still going to be at least overnight before we get Alberto. Conditions are expected to become more favorable as it gets into the Gulf, but could it become an open wave in between? (TD1 - wave - TD1 - Alberto)

[Stratosphere747]

I've been gone for an hour, and it's already storm cancellation?

Was they really ever a storm to begin with?

This could have been one of those "storms" that needed recon for verification.

[conestogo_flood]

I've been gone for an hour, and it's already storm cancellation?

Was they really ever a storm to begin with?

This could have been one of those "storms" that needed recon for verification.

Only because about 2 hours ago everyone was talking about it getting worse.

On CNN right now, the NHC plane says winds are possible to be TS strength. The met says it's strengthening. IT COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM. NHC READING TS FORCE WINDS.